UFC 268: Punch Drunk Predictions
Usman or Covington? Namajunas or Zhang? Gaethje or Chandler?
To quote the inimitable Jon Anik, “One More Sleep.”
UFC 268 features a packed lineup flush with competitive, compelling, high caliber fights, with things at the top of two divisions being resolved in highly anticipated rematches.
This is a fire card, and one where it feels like the potential is there for all kinds of wildness to ensue.
I’ve felt pretty solid about my picks as of late, not having many moments where I’ve gone into Saturday thinking, “This could go sideways in a hurry,” and that has resulted in a really nice little run since UFC 266 (52-18-1, 1 NC), but I’ve got those little hairs on the back of my neck standing up as I write this because as confident as I am in my breakdowns and selections, these are elite talents going head-to-head across the main card and a perfect night or a putrid night both feel like real possibilities.
As you know, that’s why I love doing this piece every week and publicly keeping track of my results. Sometimes things just don’t go your way, and owning that, acknowledging that, laughing at yourself about it when necessary feels like the only way to do things to me, so here we are, on another Friday, offering up fight predictions.
Once more unto the breach, dear friends; once more.
Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
Since this fight was announced, I had very clear, “Oh, Usman is going to obliterate this fool” vibes given what the welterweight champion has shown already in 2021 and the fact that Covington, for as good as he is and as close as their first encounter was, has only fought once since, and it was against Tyron Woodley, whom he let hang around despite the fact that “The Chosen One” was in the midst of a prolonged slide.
It made me think of the second bout between Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson and how when I talked to Jones before that fight, he sounded a little more dialled in and extremely focused on showing everybody that while their first fight was ultra-competitive, he was on an entirely different level than “The Mauler.”
And then he went out and dominated Gustafsson from the jump.
That’s the feeling I get here, and I’m buoyed by the fact that my guy Nolan King from MMA Junkie has the same feeling (below) and the information from Richard Mann’s invaluable Fight Forecast newsletter has a clear “not sure how Covington can win this” feel to it as well:
Covington is a terrific fighter and better than just about everyone else in the division, but I think Usman has elevated his game tremendously since their first encounter and will show that Saturday. A third consecutive finish cements “The Nigerian Nightmare” as the 2021 Fighter of the Year and sends him into next year searching for new challenges.
Prediction: Kamaru Usman by TKO
Rose Namajunas vs. Zhang Weili
This feels weird to say because she’s a two-time champion and coming off a fantastic head kick finish, but I kind of want to see Rose Namajunas replicate that effort or deliver another performance like her win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in their rematch before I feel comfortable banking on her retaining the title.
Weird, right?
She undeniably talented and has appeared laser-focused all week, so I have no doubts that she could go out and win going away again on Saturday night at MSG, where she’s already enjoyed a championship victory, however I’m siding with the challenger to reclaim the title and set up a trilogy bout, if Namajunas and the UFC want one.
I believe we’ll see Zhang looking to be more physical and fight in close quarters from the outset, knowing that staying at range means being susceptible to Namajunas’ array of kicks and long punches. In tight, the Chinese standout can use her strength, use her power to wear on the champion, chip away at her energy reserves and her confidence, and drag it into the latter rounds, where Namajunas has been hit-and-miss for her career.
I think the challenger bullies her way to a victory and then we wait and see what comes next — either a third bout with “Thug Rose” or a date with Carla Esparza.
Prediction: Zhang Weili by TKO
Frankie Edgar vs. Marlon Vera
I can’t pick Vera to win a fight like this until I see him win a fight like this; that’s just the way it goes.
While Edgar is older and has suffered a number of ugly knockouts since then, this has shades of his clash with Yair Rodriguez to me, where everyone was ready for the ascending Mexican star to take the next step forward at the expense of “The Answer,” and instead, Edgar went out there and showed Rodriguez, “There are levels to this.”
Maybe Vera catches Edgar and the former lightweight champion’s chin is just not able to hold up to big shots any more, which wouldn’t be unreasonable. Maybe he edges him out on the cards in a close, competitive bout.
Until I see it happen, I’m siding with the wily veteran to deliver a similar effort to the one Jose Aldo turned in last December and leave Vera still searching for that key victory that gets him over the hump in the bantamweight ranks.
Prediction: Frankie Edgar by unanimous decision
Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo
This is going to be a scrap, boy.
I also think it’s going to look a lot like Quarantillo’s fight with Gavin Tucker, who used his speed and technical advantages to work from the outside and pick apart “Billy Q” over three rounds. Burgos can get drawn into exchanges that carry health hazards, but after consecutive losses in knock-down, drag-out battles, I have a feeling that “Hurricane Shane” will be more inclined to use his reach advantage and keep Quarantillo outside more often than naught.
We’ll get some fun periods where they trade in the pocket and both land good shots, but on the whole, I believe we’ll see technique win out over power and Burgos get his hand raised at the end of three rounds.
Prediction: Shane Burgos by unanimous decision
Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler
I don’t really know how Michael Chandler wins this fight.
I mean, I suppose he can hope to land something funky that puts Gaethje down, but no one has done that yet and I’m not sure I see that happening. He could, alternatively, look to out-hustle the former interim champion over 15 minutes, landing more and better in a back-and-forth that blows the roof off of Madison Square Garden to start the main card, but I’m not sure I see that either, as Chandler has never been a high volume, “wear you out” kind of guy.
Plus, the only times we’ve seen Gaethje fall to a “death by a thousand cuts” approach came against notoriously tough, extremely durable standouts Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. Chandler ain’t built like those two and Gaethje has refined his approach since then, and I think he shows why he’s part of that very exclusive elite class this weekend.
I think this ends up looking similar to Gaethje’s win over Edson Barboza, where he just pressed forward relentlessly, unloading non-stop attacks until the Brazilian got caught along the fence and felled with a heavy blow just over two minutes in. It’s been some time since Chandler has been in the kind of battle he’d need to endure and survive in order to win this fight, and I just don’t think he’s capable of that any more.
Gaethje wins with a highlight reel finish and a backflip off the top of the fence.
Prediction: Justin Gaethje by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Alex Pereira def. Andreas Michailidis
Bobby Green def. Al Iaquinta
Phil Hawes def. Chris Curtis
Nassourdine Imavov def. Edmen Shahbazyan
Ian Garry def. Jordan Williams
Gian Villante def. Chris Barnett
Dustin Jacoby def. John Allan
Melsik Baghdasaryan def. Bruno Souza
CJ Vergara def. Ode’ Osbourne
2021 PDP Record: 250-172-5, 5 NC (.572)