UFC 270: Punch Drunk Predictions
Ngannou or Gane? Moreno or Figueiredo? After a solid opening week of the year, it's time to dive into the first pay-per-view picks of the year
When you’re in the business of making predictions, cards like this are the ones that get me all jittery and nervous and I absolutely love them.
Looking at the lineup, there are only a couple fights — maybe even only one — where it feels like there is only one side to select and the result going to other way would be a real surprise. With the rest of them, they’re not quite coin flips, but it wouldn’t difficult to make a case for either side to get their hand raise, and that makes things both exciting and nerve-racking.
While I go into every card looking to have a perfect night and happy to come away with returns north of that 70 percent mark I target for the year, but honestly, just coming away without getting crushed brings about a sigh of relief because with a couple of shaky selections early, going 2-9 or 3-8 become a real possibility, and no one wants that.
Even though I did okay with last week’s selections — 6-4, not bad — I’m still angry with myself for saying all week that people were undervaluing Calvin Kattar and then undervaluing him myself. My apologies to Mr. Kattar, the New England Cartel, and you folks that read my prediction pieces every week they come out because it was a rookie mistake and it shouldn’t have happened.
And now, onto the picks.
Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane
I don’t think saying I can see either of these men getting their hand raised is a cop-out or a hedge; I think it’s realistic.
I mean, even if you think Gane is going to win, suggesting Ngannou doesn’t have a chance considering the ferocious power we all know he possesses is ridiculous. The same holds true the other way too — if you’re Team Ngannou, acting like Gane couldn’t stick-and-move his way to a win is silly. It’s a competitive fight, each guy is more than capable of winning, and seeing how it plays out is going to be utterly captivating.
So who am I picking? I’m picking Ngannou, but let me tell you how much I agonized over this pick.
I think the world of Gane.
I think he can be world champion and I think he can win this fight tomorrow night rather handily if things play out a certain way. I think he’s going to enjoy a lengthy reign over this division at some point in the not too distant future and I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if it started Saturday.
So why am I picking against him?
Because Ngannou answered all the questions that remained about him last year in his second bout with Stipe Miocic, showing off a little offensive wrestling of his own for good measure, and I just can’t fathom that another nine months working, drilling, learning, sharpening with Eric Nicksick won’t produce another step forward. I still think Ngannou is a one-of-a-kind athlete with a far greater ability to take in information, synthesize it, and apply it to his game than we give him credit for simply because he’s a hulking specimen that can also send Alistair Overeem’s head into orbit.
I don’t think victory will come easy because Gane is one of the smartest, most tactical fighters I’ve seen, and he isn’t going to hand Ngannou opportunities to land flush. That said, we know “The Predator” only needs to connect with one shot for this fight to be over or a finishing sequence to present itself, and no one has avoided that scenario over the last five fights, and I don't think that changes this weekend.
As Ngannou said himself, “The champ remains the champ.”
Prediction: Francis Ngannou
Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Man, this one isn’t straightforward either, and it’s complicated by the fact that Figueiredo looked great in the first fight, and not so great in the second fight.
While I think Figueiredo has a very real chance of coming out sharp and delivering another strong performance to claim back the title (and maybe set up our first quadrilogy in UFC history), I refuse to pick someone shows up as flat as the Brazilian did last time out. It’s like he didn’t want to be there, and although he appears to be all fired up and ready to go this weekend, I really prefer my championship fighters locked in all the time, rather than having very recently watched them underestimate a game opponent.
And then there is also the whole “Brandon Moreno is a tremendous fighter” part of all this too.
The adjustments and improvements Moreno made from the first fight to the second were outstanding, and I absolutely believe he can turn in a comparable performance on Saturday night.
I think Figueiredo comes out hot this time around, but gets out ahead of his skies a little, expends too much energy, and Moreno works his way to a finish in the latter stages of the fight. As I said on Thursday, I think the Brazilian has some front-running tendencies, and once Moreno shows he’s right there with him, Figueiredo will begin to fade and the Mexican will earn his first successful title defence.
Prediction: Brandon Moreno
Michel Pereira vs. Andre Fialho
I really want this to be the wild, back-and-forth, all-out brawl that I guarantee it would have been a couple years ago, with Pereira trying to hit a whole bunch of ridiculous moves and Fialho looking to bomb away from start to finish, whenever that happened to come.
But I genuinely believe that Pereira has made a conscious effort to dial back the crazy and focus more on what he needs to do in order to be successful, and that means avoiding a slobberknocker with Fialho and using all the elements of his game to get the job done.
For as impressive a year as Fialho had in 2021 — four wins, four finishes, three in the first round, two against former UFC competitors — beating James Vick when he’s in the midst of a tailspin and Stefan Sekulic, who went 0-2 in the UFC, isn’t the same as walking in and halting Pereira’s solid run of success.
There will be some entertaining exchanges and moments where it feels like a Pier 6 brawl is about to erupt, but overall, I think Pereira will avoid prolonged striking exchanges, use his wrestling and size, and secure another decision win.
Prediction: Michel Pereira
Cody Stamann vs. Said Nurmagomedov
There is a part of me that wants to pick Stamann because he’s a steady veteran that has fought a much tougher slate and could potentially turn this into a close, grimy fight contested in the trenches where we get 29-28 scores across the board with two of the officials favouring him.
But Nurmagomedov is the type of dynamic talent that has historically frustrated Stamann — someone that can do everything pretty well, uses his hands to set up his wrestling — and he’s 29, which means he’s far less likely to make the kind of mistakes Song Yadong made in allowing Stamann to hang around when they fought a few years back.
Nurmagomedov being off since October 2020 is a little worrisome, but I think he comes out sharp and earns a statement victory over a divisional stalwart.
Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov
Trevin Giles vs. Michael Morales
This one got moved to the main card after the middleweight contest between Rodolfo Vieira and Wellington Turman was scratched late Thursday evening, and I’m happy to see it get the main card opening because I think Morales is one of the top young talents to come off Season 5 of Dana White’s Contender Series.
As I said all week, I don’t know that Giles’ problem at middleweight had anything to do with size or strength — he beat guys that were taller than him, heftier than him, and lost to cats that were right around his size — but had far more to do with Fight IQ and sloppy technique. Dropping to welterweight may result in his size and length serving him a little better long-term, however he’s giving up a significant amount of reach to Morales, and despite being just 22 years old, the undefeated Ecuadorian fighter showed a ton of promise last time out.
Although Morales has never faced anyone as experienced as Giles, he looked calm and poised in his DWCS win last fall and I expect him to turn in a similar effort on Saturday, using his length, quickness, and the sneaky grappling skills he has in his back pocket as the son of a pair of judokas to frustrate the Houston Police office and pick up his first UFC win.
Prediction: Michael Morales
Preliminary Card Picks
Victor Henry def. Raoni Barcelos
Jack Della Maddalena def. Pete Rodriguez
Tony Gravely def. Saimon Oliveira
Vanessa Demopoulos def. Silvana Juarez
Matt Frevola def. Genaro Valdez
Kay Hansen def. Jasmine Jasudavicius
2022 PDP Record: 6-4-0 (.600)
2021 PDP Record: 278-173-5, 5 NC (.603)