UFC 271: Punch Drunk Predictions
Adesanya or Whittaker? And Still or And New?
Readying for this one genuinely gives me chicken skin.
Maybe it’s because I love the main event pairing and that every fight on the main card feels like it’s going to answer some key questions about all the parties involved, or maybe it’s because I’m a complete lunatic who gets noticeably excited ahead of every fight card, which means my levels spike even more for pay-per-view shows and championship fights, but whatever it is, I’m amped and I can’t wait until the first pair of fighters start making the walk tomorrow night.
Let me say this right here, right now: I think we’re in for an absolute banner night on Saturday in Houston — the kind of night where the fights start delivering early and the results and energy just keep building and building and building through to the main event, which ends up being an early “OMG!” moment for one reason or another and everyone is left singing the praises of UFC 271.
It might be wishful thinking, but what else would you expect from me, your friendly neighbourhood eternal optimist?
Onto the predictions!
Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker
And Still.
As much as I adore Whittaker and would not be the least bit surprised to see him emerge victorious, creating the need for a trilogy fight that then holds up the division a little (snickers like an idiot that loves chaos), Adesanya is just that guy that is always going to give him fits because he counters all the things Rob does extremely well extremely well and his offensive arsenal is simply too vast.
I re-watched the first fight again a few weeks ago for a piece I did about middleweight title fight performances, and since then, all I can think about is how even if Whittaker dials things back, stays within himself, and fights the way he did against Yoel Romero in their first meeting, Adesanya will still have plenty of opportunities to hit him with the kind of counter shot that put him on the deck in their first encounter. That doesn’t even take into account the offence the champion looks to initiate himself, which will be plentiful and purposeful.
Whittaker will have his moments, there are ways he can win this fight, and I do think it favours him if we get into the championship rounds, but I don’t think we get there.
Adesanya gets it done inside of three rounds.
Prediction: Israel Adesanya
Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa
Derrick Lewis doesn’t lose to anyone other than championship-level fighters (at least not of late), but is Tai Tuivasa a championship-level fighter?
That’s the question that has been plaguing me since I really started digging into this matchup, especially because I thought Chris Daukaus was going to be able to come forward, pressure Lewis, and get him out of there, only for the opposite to happen.
These two got talking at the press conference on Wednesday, acknowledging that they understand the assignment, and all but agreed to come forward swinging for the fences until one of them was left looking up at the lights. It’s essentially what we all expected out of them anyway, but to see them joyously agree to it was actually kind of cute.
If they do enact the “Swang & Bang Protocol" as anticipated, Lewis should come out ahead and give the fans in Houston something to roar about this time around. He truly does have a different kind of power and while Tuivasa is a tough kid that can sling hands, he also puts himself in a lot of positions where he can get hit.
Lewis will hit him, Tuivasa will go to sleep, and Toyota Center will erupt.
Prediction: Derrick Lewis
Jared Cannonier vs. Derek Brunson
I jumped on the SevereMMA UFC 271 preview again this week and in discussing this fight, we were all kind of surprised that Brunson entered as the underdog, given that it feels like he has more avenues to victory than Cannonier.
While Cannonier has a sharp striking game involving a lot of kicks, Brunson has always had good power in his hands, but has taken to using his wrestling and grappling much more in recent fights, with great success. And as much as I can see Cannonier catching him with something real early that puts Brunson on skates, the far more likely scenario to me is Brunson wrestling Cannonier into oblivion.
Kicks are a large part of Cannonier’s arsenal, but they’re also an entry point for takedowns, so each time he throws one out there, Brunson has the potential to use it to put him on his back, and thus far in his career, we haven’t seen a great deal of film on Cannonier being effective off his back.
My guess is that Brunson works his way inside early, gets in on a body lock, and takes Cannonier down, favouring control time over advancing positions or piling up the damage through the first few takedowns. But as the fight progresses and the takedowns pile up, I expect him to chase a finish in hopes of making a big enough statement to secure a championship opportunity.
I don’t know that he’ll find it, but I do think he’ll win rather handily.
Prediction: Derek Brunson
One Other Thing: you need to follow the folks in that video above; they’re all class and sharp minds when it comes to this stuff.
Top Row (L to R): Sean Sheehan (@SeanSheehanBA), Harry Powell (@bjj_harrypowell), Graeme McDowell (@SevereMMA).
Bottom Row (L to R): Brad Wharton (@MMABrad48), Yours Truly (@spencerkyte), and Ian O’Neill (ioneillmma).
Kyler Phillips vs. Marcelo Rojo
I want this to be a dominant win for Phillips. I want this to be the moment where “The Matrix” takes a major step forward and starts to showing the kind of consistency he needs in order to be a permanent fixture in the bantamweight Top 15.
Instead, I think this is going to be more of a dog fight because as much as Rojo tends to weaken the longer his fights progress, so too does Phillips, and that could lead to a war of attrition where things get tense down the stretch.
Phillips has all the tools — he’s a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu with proven grappling skills; he has a varied kicking game; he moves well, is flexible and dexterous — but thus far, he’s looked great against overmatched competition, and like a sprinter running a marathon against established UFC guys. I’m not sure where Rojo fits on that spectrum, but I know he’s the kind of guy that is going to be in Phillips’ face from the outset, which is what makes this one interesting to me.
Ultimately, I think the 26-year-old former Contender Series and TUF contestant gets it done, but I genuinely don’t know how. A dominant first-round finish feels just as likely has a shaky decision where he manages to hold on late.
Prediction: Kyler Phillips
Bobby Green vs. Nasrat Haqparast
This honestly feels like one of those fights where Bobby Green is going to make his classic “What the hell were the judges watching?” face when Bruce Buffer announces that Nasrat Haqparast wins a unanimous decision. Their respective approaches just line up in a way that I can see Haqparast marching forward, slinging lefts, and Green doing what he does — slipping shots, snapping out counters, and doing great work moving backwards — only to get jobbed by the judges again.
But I also believe that Green understands how this stuff works and has changed up his game a little. We saw it again Al Iaquinta in NYC, where he was a little more aggressive and it paid off, and I think we’ll see something similar here.
Haqparast’s wins have come against people he can march down and control with his jab and power left, and I just don’t think Green will allow him to do that — he’s too crafty, too slippery, too well-rounded. Instead, I think “King” cuts some angles, picks his spots for landing shots, mixes in some wrestling of his own, and scores a second straight victory.
Prediction: Bobby Green
Preliminary Card Picks
Andrei Arlovski def. Jared Vanderaa
Casey O’Neill def. Roxanne Modafferi
Maxim Grishin def. William Knight (that weight miss, man)
Ronnie Lawrence def. Mana Martinez
Renato Moicano def. Alexander Hernandez
Carlos Ulberg def. Fabio Cherant
A.J. Dobson def. Jacob Malkoun
Sergey Morozov def. Douglas Silva
Blood Diamond def. Jeremiah Wells
2022 PDP Record: 23-11-0 (.676)
2021 PDP Record: 278-173-5, 5 NC (.603)