UFC 271: When is the Best Time to Book a Rematch?
Rematches have been all the rage over the last five years, but what goes into determining that a sequel (or trilogy or tetralogy) are needed?
Between 2017 and 2021, there have been 26 instances where a rematch or trilogy fight served as the main event for a UFC fight card.
There were 204 events ran during that five-year period, meaning a rematch (or trilogy bout) has served as the main event for 12.75% of all UFC fight cards during that span.
And that’s just main events — it doesn’t include the rematches that transpired elsewhere on cards, either, like when Rose Namajunas faced Joanna Jedrzejczyk for a second time at UFC 223 or squared off with Jessica Andrade in a three-round rematch a couple years later.
It feels like a lot and a wholly realistic number at the same time, given the general landscape of the last couple years and the number of title changes that have taken place during those years.
But not all rematches are created equal or come together under the same circumstances, and with a highly anticipated sequel between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker set to become the first main event rematch of 2022, it feels like the right time to delve into the data and see what it tells us about the timing and necessity of high profile rematches.
Here are the twenty-six (26) rematches that served as UFC main events between January 1, 2017 and December 18, 2021:
2017
Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson [C]
Daniel Cormier vs. Anthony Johnson [C]
Stipe Miocic vs. Junior Dos Santos [C]
Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones [C]
Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko [C]
Max Holloway vs. Jose Aldo [C]
2018
Jacare Souza vs. Derek Brunson
Robert Whittaker vs. Yoel Romero [C]
Eddie Alvarez vs. Dustin Poirier
TJ Dillashaw vs. Cody Garbrandt [C]
Curtis Blaydes vs. Francis Ngannou
Kevin Lee vs. Al Iaquinta
Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson [C]
2019
Raphael Assunção vs. Marlon Moraes
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier [C]
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Liz Carmouche [C]
Daniel Cormier vs. Stipe Miocic [C]
2020
Corey Anderson vs. Jan Blachowicz
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez [C]
Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier 3 [C]
2021
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou [C]
Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal [C]
Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori [C]
Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 3
Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington [C]
A couple quick takeaways:
only 8 of the 26 are non-title fights
half of the originals were non-title fights, with two of the originals taking place outside the UFC
10 of the sequels produced a different result than the originals
Daniel Cormier, Stipe Miocic, and Dustin Poirier all appear four times
Miocic’s last five fights have come against two opponents — Ngannou and Cormier
In compiling the list of rematches above, my brain automatically wanted to group them into a few different categories. Those categories are Automatic, Rubber Match, Unnecessary, Tenured, Forced, We Know What’s Happening Here, and What Else Are We Going to Do, and Warranted they’re defined as follows:
Automatic: when the previous fight ends in a draw or No Contest, providing no sense of closure and no clear victor (ex. Woodley vs. Thompson, Alvarez vs. Poirier)
Rubber Match: when a series is even and a third fight is required to break the deadlock (ex. Miocic-Cormier 3, Poirier-McGregor 3)
Unnecessary: no one was asking for it, there were other options, but here we are anyway (ex. Jacare vs. Brunson)
Tenured: when a long-reigning champion is toppled and they get an immediate opportunity face the person that beat them (ex. Holloway vs. Aldo)
We Know What’s Happening Here: when a bout is made with a clear and obvious purpose in mind (ex. Assuncao vs. Moraes, Poirier vs. McGregor)
What Else Are We Going to Do: when the only thing that makes any kind of sense is a rematch that doesn’t really need to happen (ex. Cormier vs. Johnson)
Warranted: when a second (or third) meeting between two opponents makes complete sense on all levels (ex. Nunes vs. Shevchenko, Miocic vs. Ngannou)
Looking at those six types of rematches, I can make a case for the merits of each, while also being able to easily find ways to argue against five of them, with the warranted rematches being the only category that exists, for me, without the need of being scrutinized.
We all know when a rematch is warranted, like the two mentioned as examples or this weekend’s main event, and we know they’re warranted because very few people jump on the Internet and shout about how it’s unnecessary or there are other options that make more sense. But the rest? They all have both their flaws and their place, and that’s what makes figuring out the timing of rematches such a difficult thing.
Automatic rematches make sense because we all want that finality — to know who the better fighter is — but it’s also one of those things where they tend to be reserved for high-profile or championship bouts, which makes it feel a lot more like the popularity of the athletes or the circumstances tethered to the bout plays a bigger factor in whether a second bout comes together or not.
There were five draws and five fights that ended in No Contest verdicts last year — only two of them were initially re-booked, and only one of those (Eryk Anders vs. Darren Stewart) actually happened.
No one really likes ties, which is why we all get a little excited whenever the idea of a rubber match comes up, but unless the first two fights in the series (or first three fights in the case of the potential Figueiredo-Moreno tetralogy) were ultra-competitive, down-to-the-wire battles, I don’t know that we always need to see a third fight between the same competitors.
Did anyone really think Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos were on even footing after their second meeting? Was there really a need to see Miocic and Cormier or Poirier and McGregor fight for a third time after how the second instalment of those sagas played out? Heck, the UFC was ready to move on from Figueiredo and Moreno after “The Assassin Baby” won the belt, with Alexandre Pantoja’s injury being the chief reason the Brazilian got a rematch, so do we really need to see them do for a fourth straight time, even though they’re now 1-1-1?
(Note: I want to see it because I envision Moreno winning the title back in dominant fashion, turning it into a best of seven series)
The funny thing with unnecessary rematches is that they can still produce meaningful results, like the second bout between Corey Anderson and Jan Blachowicz. I was at the first fight, which Anderson won by wrestling the life out of the Polish veteran in the early part of his UFC tenure. Doing it for a second time in early 2020 didn’t really make a great deal of sense, but then Blachowicz blasted Anderson to secure his third straight win, which put him in a position to face Dominick Reyes for the vacant light heavyweight title later in the year.
Still, most of the time, you don’t end up with a cool chain of events like that — you end up with Jacare beating Brunson for a second time, gaining no ground, and nothing changing at middleweight.
I wrote something a few years ago saying that the UFC should never do immediate rematches, which I’ve subsequently called tenured rematches here, and I still stand by it. Given the inconsistency in how these types of rematches are doled out, I said do away with them entirely and make every displaced champion win at least one fight before getting a chance to reclaim their belt. That said, it’s hard to argue against Amanda Nunes not getting to face Julianna Pena right away and Anderson Silva not getting a rematch with Chris Weidman would have been a tough pill to swallow, although maybe it would have been for the best, given how things played out…
As much as I dislike the We Know What’s Happening Here type of rematch from an equity and competitive standpoint, I also understand that the UFC is a business and sometimes, what makes dollars is what makes the most sense. When it really stings is when someone like Assuncao gets hosed by having to fight Moraes for a second time in 20 months rather than getting a championship opportunity himself, but even then, I understood the decision and can see the need to make these types of rematches happen from time-to-time.
The Cormier-Johnson rematch for the light heavyweight title at UFC 210 is a perfect What Else Are We Going to Do rematch because even though the first meeting ended decisively, Johnson was the clear No. 1 contender and there was no one else even close, so what else was the UFC going to do? Johnson’s power gave the sequel an “it could go differently” feel, but the fight played out much like their first meeting, thankfully, because if it hadn’t, they’d have likely done it for a third time.
Which brings us to warranted rematches — the best type of rematches, and if I had my druthers, the only type of rematches we would see in the UFC.
As I said, I can make (and have made) a case for all the others, but only warranted rematches are without demerits, and this weekend’s middleweight sequel is a perfect example.
Adesanya has cemented his standing atop the middleweight division and vanquished a trio of challengers, while Whittaker has regrouped and rebuilt himself into the No. 1 contender. He wasn’t a tenured champ and the outcome of the first meeting was clear and definitive, so putting some space between the two parties and working back to this second bout organically was the only way to do it, and now that we’re here, everything about it feels right.
There is a backstory between the two and talking points have emerged over the two-plus years since their first encounter to create some uncertainty in the outcome, but it’s also a meeting between the rightful No. 1 contender and the reigning champ, rather than some forced pairing that will draw eyeballs.
If there were a knock on warranted rematches, it’s that we’re not guaranteed to see them, but that’s part of what makes them special and should be one of the celebrated functions of the sport.
Just as it’s great that Whittaker has worked his way back to this second meeting with Adesanya, it also would have been cool if somewhere along the way, someone like Darren Till or Jared Cannonier would have knocked him off, adding to their case for a title shot by taking out Whittaker. As much as we can all hope to see certain matchups, there is something exciting about the unexpected and fighters being replaced on the road to title contention.
The titular question of this piece is “When is the right time to book a rematch?” and it feels like the only real answer is in situations like this weekends — when it’s warranted and comes together organically; two fighters crossing paths for a second time because that’s where the results have led them.
Nothing else ever feels as exciting or pure or compelling, at least not to me.