UFC 272: One Question for Every Fight
Setting up Saturday's pay-per-view event in Las Vegas with a look at a key unknown surrounding each contest
This feels like a fight card from a bygone era and it has me feeling a little nostalgic as we ramp up towards Saturday night.
You see, I’m old enough, been around long enough to remember when pay-per-view cards didn’t need to be headlined by two championship bouts and a stack of matchups between ranked fighters to be considered “just okay” — all you need was something compelling and meaningful in the main event, coupled with a bunch of familiar names and intriguing matchups, and folks got pumped to spend Saturday watching men (there were no women in the UFC at this point) beat the heck out of one another inside the Octagon.
Those were the “good old days” that a lot of folks say they miss all the time, but interest in this card has been mid at best, further illustrating that people don't really want what they say they want — they just want to complain about what they’re being offered more than anything else.
But me? I’m your friendly neighbourhood lunatic and I’m absa-smurfly pumped to see what transpires this weekend at T-Mobile Arena.
These are the key questions that intrigue me about each pairing.
Enjoy.
Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal
Q: Can Masvidal do enough damage to win this fight?
This one all hinges on how much offence Masvidal is able to deploy, especially early, because if Covington can spend the first round or two making him work defensively, it’s a wrap.
When Masvidal wins — and especially when he wins big — he gets to engage on his terms and doesn’t have to spend a lot of time worrying about stuffing takedowns and re-shots and making sure he doesn’t get too loose with his hands because his opponent might change levels at any moment.
Throw out the Ben Askren result here because Covington isn’t coming in with his head down out of the chute, and you’re left with only a couple options: a replay of the first Kamaru Usman fight where Masvidal didn’t get much offence off and got wrestled for long stretches, a replay of the second Usman fight where he got off a little more offence, but still got taken down twice and knocked out cold, or something from way back in the day like the Al Iaquinta fight where he stuffed every shot and got the better of things on the feet throughout.
The first two are the far more likely options given who Covington is as a fighter and the success Usman had against Masvidal in those two outings, plus he’s a significantly better wrestler and more calculated fighter than Iaquinta. It’s going to be on Masvidal to come in crisp, ready to be first in every exchange and primed to make Covington pay every time he’s in boxing range if he wants to come out of this grudge match with his hand raised in victory.
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano
Q: Can Moicano pull off the PPV double?
Not many folks have won fights on consecutive pay-per-view events, but Moicano has the chance to join that exclusive club this weekend after stepping up to face Rafael Dos Anjos in Saturday’s five-round co-main event.
Last month in Houston, Moicano made relatively quick work of Alexander Hernandez, allowing the overly aggressive lightweight to punch himself out of position and over-extend, creating countering opportunities that the Brazilian used to hurt Hernandez on multiple occasions. Early in the second, Moicano stung Hernandez on the feet, followed up with a shot that put him on the deck, and choked him out, securing his second straight lightweight win and third victory in four fights since moving to the 155-pound weight class.
But now he’s stepping into deeper waters — the kind of waters he had trouble navigating during his featherweight run — in an impromptu clash with Dos Anjos.
There are a couple things working for Moicano here, potentially: (1) Dos Anjos hasn’t fought in well over a year and is 37 years old, so he could come out a little rusty, and (2) he’s got nothing to lose here after having done the UFC a solid, which should allow him to be loose and free out of the gate this weekend.
I’ve always liked Moicano and think he can have a nice little run in the spot he was in last month at UFC 271, serving as the dangerous veteran against hopefuls like Hernandez, but I’m not sure if he can supplant Dos Anjos as a lightweight gatekeeper or become a full-fledged contender himself. But a win this weekend puts him in the running for those roles and puts him in a position for an even bigger opportunity later this year.
Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell
Q: Is Bryce Mitchell ready to be a Top 10 fighter?
Following his win over Andre Fili on Halloween 2020, it felt like Mitchell was going to keep marching forward in his camo shorts, wrestling and grappling his way into the Top 10 in no time flat. He was 5-0 in the UFC, had some buzz behind him, and seemed like a guy that was about to take the division by storm.
Then he didn’t fight at all in 2021 following hand surgery, and his momentum slowed and the hype surrounding him cooled, sending him into Saturday’s pairing with Barboza as a big question mark for me.
Barboza is the guy you have to beat to break into the Top 10 and show you can hang with the best in the division, but beating him isn’t all that easy. He really only loses to Top 10 fighters (and Jamie Varner) and will have a pronounced advantage in the striking department. His takedown defence is solid, and his explosiveness can make opponents pay for telegraphed entries — ask Beneil Dariush — which means Mitchell is going to have to be technical, relentless, and willing to push through getting popped a couple times if he wants to get this to the canvas and keep it there.
After a few years where it felt like we’d gotten away from seeing dominant wrestlers and grapplers having a great deal of success inside the Octagon, it feels like we’re circling back around that way, and Mitchell has the potential to be a part of the group that illustrates that going forward. He’s been dominant on the ground throughout his first five UFC starts, and will undoubtedly be hunting for takedowns and control time from the jump this weekend.
I’m not sure if he’s ready to clear a hurdle like this, but I sure am keen to find out this weekend.
Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira
Q: Can we please not overreact to whatever Kevin Holland does this weekend? Please?
First and foremost, where are all my folks that were all over Dana White throughout 2020 and into 2021 for not signing Holland after his appearance on DWCS now that Holland himself has come out and said he wasn’t trying to get a contract that night?
Secondly, can we not do the thing where we’re suddenly all the way back in on a dude we were way too high on not even 18 months ago if he goes out and looks great against “Cowboy” this weekend?
I think Holland is a genuine talent, but one that lacks focus and commitment. He’s that guy that is so naturally gifted that he think he doesn’t have to put in all the work, and then when things don’t work out as expected or intended, he says, “It doesn’t bother me anyway.” And maybe it doesn’t and he’s content with being a guy that never quite lives up to expectations or makes the absolute most of his gifts, but I know that would drive me mental and I can’t fathom how it doesn’t do the same to others.
This weekend’s fight with Oliveira is going to be framed as a fresh start for Holland, who drops down to welterweight for the first time, and there are going to be people that want to play the “See, he’s got it all figured out now!” card if (when?) he beats the Brazilian veteran, but that instinct is wrong.
Oliveira has lost three straight, six of his last eight, and seven of his last 10 fights. He’s 34 years old (which is younger than I expected, honestly) and is reaching the point where he’s trending towards being a professional opponent, so a victory for Holland, no matter how impressive, will not be an indicator that he’s got it all figured out and is back to being the championship hopeful far too many people wanted him to be at the end of 2020.
He could get there if he wanted to, but I just don’t think he wants to do the work to make that happen.
Serghei Spivac vs. Greg Hardy
Q: How much longer are we going to do the Greg Hardy thing?
Hardy is nine fights into his UFC career and sports a 4-4 record with one No Contest inside the Octagon. He is an average heavyweight at best, and yet here he is, once more, occupying main card real estate this weekend.
I fully understand why this is the case, though I continue to disagree with the booking decision, but it’s starting to get to the point of being impossible to justify. I know some will argue it was never justifiable in the first place, but the truth is that Hardy is a bigger name than the majority of the fighters on the roster and his first couple years were always going to take place in the spotlight.
But this weekend’s fight marks the start of Year 4 on the UFC roster and he enters on a two-fight slide. More importantly, there haven’t been any real signs of development from the boisterous “Prince of War.” The thing that made him intriguing is that he is a genuinely dynamic athlete — a great big human being with speed and power and explosiveness that could have translated into something promising in the Octagon, but Hardy hasn’t shown the commitment to getting better at his craft and the results haven’t been there.
Compare Hardy’s initial nine UFC starts with those of Matt Mitrione, a less heralded NFL defensive lineman who made the shift to MMA and reached the UFC with zero experience. “Meathead” went 6-3 in his first nine starts, but those losses didn’t start coming until after he’d chalked up five consecutive victories to begin his career and showed that he was putting in the work to improve. He went the distance with Cheick Kongo in his sixth fight and established himself as a Top 15 heavyweight in five years.
In his sixth UFC appearance, Hardy squeaked out a win over Yorgan De Castro in a fight where the DWCS alum from Cape Verde broke his foot and basically stopped attacking midway through the contest.
I’m not saying he should be cut with another loss, though this is the final fight on his contract, I believe, so letting him skate would make sense, but the days of stationing him on the main card because the novelty of him being “former NFL defensive lineman Greg Hardy” wore off long ago. Now he’s just “average UFC heavyweight Greg Hardy” and guys like that shouldn’t be getting prime real estate, especially on otherwise terrific fight cards like this one.
Jalin Turner vs. Jamie Mullarkey
Q: Can Jalin Turner become a real person of interest in the lightweight division?
Turner is one of those guys that I heard about long before he reached the UFC, which is why I tend to forget that he’s only 26 years old. Over his last three fights, “The Tarantula” has started looking like someone that could grow to be a real handful in the lightweight division, and Saturday’s bout with Jamie Mullarkey feels like it will be a real test of whether or not that is going to come to pass in the next year or so.
Turner has been dominant in his last three fights, earning stoppage wins over Joshua Culibao, Brok Weaver, and Ludovit Klein, and now he’s getting the step up in competition those efforts merit. Folks may not be all that familiar with Mullarkey, but he’s a tough Aussie veteran coming in off back-to-back stoppage wins of his own, and should, in theory, be the kind of experienced, sharp fighter that gives Turner a push here.
There are obvious elements that make Turner an intriguing prospect in the lightweight division, starting with the fact that he’s six-foot-three and sports a 77-inch reach. On top of that, he has a 100 percent finishing rate which shows he’s not someone that fights down to his competition or gets in there and messes around too often. Turner handles his business and has continue to show progress since reaching the UFC, and if he keeps his momentum going through UFC 272, he has a real good chance of becoming someone you’re going to want to pay close attention to going forward in the 155-pound weight class.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Yan Xiaonan
Q: Why does the UFC book matchups like this?
I’ve never understood this kind of booking.
Rodriguez is on a three-fight winning streak, having earned her last two wins in main event assignments against Michelle Waterson and Mackenzie Dern where she proved she is ready to challenge for the title. Yan is coming off an ugly second-round stoppage loss to Carla Esparza where she landed five significant strikes, got busted up badly, and you came away questioning the strength of the six-fight winning streak she carried into that contest.
And yet here we are, with Rodriguez standing across from Yan, forced to clear another hurdle before getting the chance to challenge for championship gold in a matchup against someone that doesn’t really move her forward at all if she wins.
Now, in talking with Rodriguez throughout her run last year, I know she likes to stay active, so that’s a part of it. It’s also worth noting that the two most logical opponents for her at this point — former champs Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk — weren’t real options, so Yan is the best of a bunch of bad choices, but this still feels like an unnecessary bout for the surging Brazilian.
Should she win this weekend, I hope Rodriguez can sit tight and wait for the championship opportunity she has earned.
Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
Q: Will Kennedy Nzechukwu ever get mean?
Nzechukwu is a great kid — smart, compassionate, articulate — and a good fighter, but he needs to be meaner if he wants to really thrive in this sport.
The Fortis MMA product is working with quality raw materials and has shown flashes of promise in the past, but there are too many instances where he starts slow and seems to have trouble really pulling the trigger, and it has cost him, most recently in his loss to Da Un Jung. His straight left looks sharp in the early stages, but he barely threw it, and it allowed Jung to settle in and start finding a home for his power shots, which ultimately led to Nzechukwu getting stopped in the first round.
Some fighters never develop that real “get out there and get after it” nastiness, and Nzechukwu is someone that I can see continuing to struggle to find that piece of himself on fight night because he is such a good kid and a kind soul overall.
But if he can find a way to tap into that on Fight Night, to come out of the corner looking to put it on the person standing across from him, I genuinely believe he could be an intriguing figure in the light heavyweight division because he’s resilient, powerful, and works with a great group of people.
Saturday’s bout with Negumereanu is going to be another good test of this because the Romanian won't give him a chance to get settled and slowly work his way into the fight. If he wants to win, Nzechukwu is going to need to get after it and get after it straight out of the gate.
Now we just have to see if he has it in him or not.
Maryna Moroz vs. Mariya Agapova
Q: Can Mariya Agapova contain her contempt?
Saturday’s main event is the only grudge match on the card.
Moroz and Agapova have some real beef as well, with the former calling the latter a “junkie” and generally talking all kinds of smack about her after Agapova severed ties with American Top Team. The sharp prospect from Kazakhstan called for this fight and then had some pointed things to say about making Moroz pay for her comments in her post-fight media availability following her win over Sabina Mazo, and now they’re set to share the Octagon together this weekend.
Skill-for-skill, I think Agapova is the better fighter, but I wonder if she’s going to be able to keep her emotions in check and fight with the same patience and poise she showed against Mazo? That fighter beats Moroz handily, which should be the goal, but there is a part of me that thinks she’s going to come out of the chute looking to murderize her, which could result in Agapova gassing herself out like she did against Shana Dobson.
Agapova has the talent to become a factor in this division, and how she handles this heated matchup on Saturday should go a long way to clarifying if she’s ready to take the next step forward and really start making waves in the flyweight ranks.
Brian Kelleher vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Q: How good is Umar Nurmagomedov?
This is one of those questions I’m going to keep asking until someone shows us where Nurmagomedov’s ceiling rests or where he tops out at the moment, which is why I’m going to be earnestly fascinated by every appearance he makes until that point.
Saturday’s matchup with Kelleher is a tough assignment for the UFC sophomore, but also the precise type of matchup I want to see for the unbeaten 25-year-old: a date with an experienced veteran coming in on a little winning streak, with a little pop and nothing to lose.
These are the types of matchups that full-blown top-tier prospects use to make a statement, while those that are destined to fall short of title contention usually struggle in these spots, so it will be interesting to see how Nurmagomedov does this weekend. He looked sharp his debut win over Sergey Morozov, but that was over a year ago now, so we’re due for another chance to assess his skills and try to figure out where he fits in the division going forward.
His last name brings attention and pressure; now it’s time to see if he can live up to the standard of excellence his cousin Khabib has set for the family.
Tim Elliott vs. Tagir Ulanbekov
Q: Did Tagir Ulanbekov just have an off night last time out or what?
While Ulanbekov came out on the happy side of a split decision verdict last time out against Allan Nascimento, it was an ultra-competitive fight where the one judge of the three tasked with scoring the bout live in Abu Dhabi whose judgment I trust a great deal, Ben Cartlidge, scored the fight for the Brazilian.
Now, it was Ulanbekov’s first appearance in over a year and Nascimento is better than plenty of debuting UFC competitors, so the difficult nature of the fight isn’t necessarily a major red flag or anything like that, but it does have me ready to pay extra close attention to his fight with Elliott this weekend in order to figure out if that was an aberration or a sign that he might not be the potential contender many envisioned him becoming when he first arrived in the UFC.
Elliott is a pain in the ass to fight and a guy that is going to make you work for everything you get in there. He throws decent volume, is a quality scrambler, and can be an offensive wrestler when he needs to be as well, which means he should offer Ulanbekov a few different looks this weekend.
But he’s still lost to the best competition he’s faced at this level throughout his career, and even if you want to call his fight with Matheus Nicolau last time out even (it was a real close fight), that still means he settles in somewhere around No. 8 or No. 9 in the division, which I would guess is a little south of where many thought Ulanbekov would top out when he first touched down in the Octagon.
A dominant showing makes him a dark horse in the division. Another close battle makes me question if he’s capable of making a real run.
Devonte Smith vs. Ludovit Klein
Q: Do you want to see proof of how difficult it is to have success inside the Octagon?
So before and after Islam Makhachev won his 10th straight fight last weekend, I talked about how it’s dumb that we always want to find ways to chip away at fighters’ success and diminish their results, as if winning 10 straight in any division, yet alone lightweight, is some easily achievable task.
This pairing feels like a good reminder of just how difficult it is to string together victories, especially in the 155-pound weight class.
Smith started his UFC run with a pair of impressive first-round stoppage wins and looked poised to be a person of interest in the division. Klein debuted on short notice, stopped Shane Young, and had me feeling like he might be someone I needed to get real familiar with, real quick.
Since then, Smith has gone 1-2 with a pair of gnarly knockout losses, while Klein enters off back-to-back losses.
Winning fights is hard, even for guys that have done it at this level in the past. Both of these guys have obvious skills and dangerous elements to their game, but it’s really goddamn difficult to martial all your focus, be defensively responsible, and find a way to execute your game plan without getting clipped inside the Octagon.
That feels like a pretty obvious statement, but then why do we constantly feel the need to do the “… yeah, but who did they really beat?” whenever someone starts to go on a nice little run?
This shit is hard.
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Dustin Jacoby
Q: How’s this for an opener?
Talk about a terrific way to start the night…
Oleksiejczuk is an intriguing prospect in the light heavyweight division — a 27-year-old with sharp boxing, beautiful body work, and four wins in seven UFC starts. Jacoby is a veteran kickboxer enjoying a beautiful renaissance, entering Saturday’s contest with a 4-0-1 record since returning to the UFC.
One of them is going to move forward this weekend and one of them is going to be forced to take a little step back, and I absolutely cannot wait to see how it all plays out bon Saturday.
Light heavyweight is one of those divisions where the right couple wins, the right kind of efforts can carry you further than they would elsewhere, so a dominant performance from either man at UFC 272 could very well put them in the Top 15, where bigger names and greater opportunities await.
The opening bout of the night has been reserved for mostly Contender Series alums and relative newcomers as of late, but this is a genuinely intriguing clash between two established, but still ascending talents, and it should be an outstanding way to kick things off this weekend.