UFC 272: Punch Drunk Predictions
Who wins Saturday's main event grudge match: Colby Covington or Jorge Masvidal?
Two months into the 2022 fight picking campaign, my record is in much better shape than it was at this time last year, when I was hovering just a couple ticks above .500 after making far too many underdog selections and going with my heart instead of my head too frequently.
Of course, I’m also coming off my worst week of the year last week, where things looked terrific heading into the main card, only to take a sharp turn towards Sucksville before Islam Makhachev saved me from a goose egg with a main event win.
Here’s the thing though: two of those fights were close, one ended with a Hail Mary armbar, and the other was a classic “Spencer talked himself out of the right pick late in the week” situation, so that’s the only one that really stings.
Saturday’s UFC 272 fight card is flush with intriguing bouts, but I also think there are wins to be had and positive results to be earned, so let’s get into these main card matchups and see if we can’t post a good number this weekend.
Let’s go!
Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal
Unless he fights like an idiot, Covington should win this fight pretty handily.
As much as I know Masvidal will have some moments and could do something that creates a finishing opportunity, the far more likely scenario is Covington marching forward behind volume, getting his former BFF up against the fence, wrestling him to the canvas, and repeating that sequence over and over and over again until “Gamebred” is exhausted.
The thing few want to admit about Covington because he’s so incredibly obnoxious all the time is that he’s actually a really terrific fighter that knows exactly who he is inside the Octagon and plays to his strengths almost all the time. For all the brashness and bravado in the preamble to his fights, he’s not someone that we’ve ever seen fight on emotion or stray too far away from what works. It’s a high volume of punches, a couple kicks mixed in for good measure, and a steady diet of pressure, which leads to grappling opportunities, scrambles, and mat returns.
Unless Masvidal can force him out of his comfort zone — which is a big ask over 25 minutes — this could end up being one-way traffic by the third round, if not sooner.
Prediction: Colby Covington
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano
I’m really curious to see how this one plays out and would like it even more if both guys were coming in off full camps, but as it is, Moicano’s making a quick turnaround in replacing Rafael Fiziev, and I think that will ultimately prove to be his undoing.
In a three-round fight, I think he can do enough to edge Dos Anjos out in two rounds and get a win. But for some reason, they’re going five and that favours Dos Anjos, not only because he’s been preparing for a main event matchup, but also because this will be his tenth five-round fight in the UFC and Moicano’s first. That kind of stuff matters even when both parties have been prepping to go a possible 25 minutes, but it matters even more when only one man has the benefit of a full training camp preparing for that kind of fight.
Dos Anjos is at a point in his career where a step back could be on the horizon — he’s 37, hasn’t fought in 15 months, and is coming off two surgeries to his lower half, plus he’s logged a lot of miles in the Octagon — but I still think he has enough in the tank to get the better of Moicano on short notice this weekend.
Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos
Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell
We’re going to find out a lot about Bryce Mitchell in this fight.
I think he’s a very good prospect and have been impressed with what he’s done so far. Hell, he’s not even a bad rapper if I’m being honest. But beating Charles Rosa and Andre Fili isn’t the same as beating Edson Barboza, and I’m not convinced he’s going to be able to get it done.
Barboza just presents a whole bunch of different challenges the former TUF contestant from Arkansas hasn’t been forced to deal with yet. He’s lightning quick, deadly accurate, and has seen everything Mitchell is going to throw his way on Saturday night. Maybe it’s still enough for “Thug Nasty” to get the job done, but every time I think about how this one plays out, I see Barboza chopping into Mitchell’s lead leg early, busting him up with sharp jabs and right hands, and then finishing him with some kind of kick to either the midsection or dome.
Maybe I’m just a Barboza loyalist. Maybe I’m underrating Mitchell. We’ll see Saturday night.
Prediction: Edson Barboza
Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira
Kevin Holland should win this fight.
Whether he does or not is an entirely different situation, but in terms of skills and where they’re at in their respective careers and all that good stuff, this is a fight that the talkative Texas resident should win and probably win handily.
My hope here is that he knows that and fights accordingly. Oliveira is coming in on a three-fight losing streak, and in the first two of those, he was stopped in the first round. Holland has the weapons to do the same; it’s just a matter of he fights like someone trying to get a quick finish and get back in the win column, or someone that wants to play around with a feisty Brazilian that has the tools to beat him.
I don’t feel confident about this pick at all, but I’m taking Holland to be sharp and aggressive and get this done early.
Prediction: Kevin Holland
Serghei Spivac vs. Greg Hardy
I honestly think Greg Hardy is going to win this fight.
This is one of those instances where I would traditionally take the fighter I hope will win — in this case, Spivac — and accept that I was going to be wrong, but since I’m really trying to finish 2022 with a .700 winning percentage (or as close to it as possible), I have to make picks that I don’t particularly like from time-to-time, like taking Hardy here.
Everyone fixates on the ending of his fight with Tai Tuivasa, who has now gone on to establish himself as a legitimate title contender, but Hardy did well in that 67-second contest. He ate a bunch of legs kicks early, but didn’t seemed bothered by them all that much, and clipped Tuivasa with a right hand that put the big Australian on rubber legs for a moment. What cost him was rushing in too quickly looking to follow up, as “Bam Bam” steadied himself, stepped off, and put him down with a massive left hand.
Spivac doesn’t throw a lot of volume and has to get inside to potentially have success, and I’m just not sure Hardy gives him a chance to get there. This feels like one of those fights where the massive, athletic heavyweight connects with something crisp early and secures a finish.
Prediction: Greg Hardy
Preliminary Card Picks
Jalin Turner def. Jamie Mullarkey
Marina Rodriguez def. Yan Xiaonan
Kennedy Nzechukwu def. Nicolae Negumereanu
Mariya Agapova def. Maryna Moroz
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Brian Kelleher
Tagir Ulanbekov def. Tim Elliott
Ludovit Klein def. Devonte Smith
Michał Oleksiejczuk def. Dustin Jacoby
2022 PDP Record: 47-24-0 (.662)