UFC 273: One Question for Every Fight
Running through what intrigues me most about each pairing on Saturday's impressive pay-per-view lineup
This is one of those cards where we’re going to come away with a clearer understanding of where a lot of fighters stand in their respective divisions, where some athletes fall in pantheon of all-time greats within their weight classes or the sport at present, and have a better idea about what to expect from some younger talents still looking to carve out a lane for themselves inside the Octagon.
It’s an outstanding lineup laced with intriguing matchups and compelling pairings, and I cannot wait to have some of these questions answered on Saturday night.
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Alexander Volkanovski vs. Chan Sung Jung
Q: What more does Volkanovski have to do to get the respect he deserves?
It feels to me like Volkanovski is constantly being asked to do a little more before people will be willing to recognize that he’s a sublime fighter and deserving of greater praise and recognition.
Every conquest and triumph seems to get put through the “Yeah, but…” filter, where there is some excuse, some reason for diminishing Volkanovski’s accomplishments in a way that doesn’t happen consistently across the board. It’s a tax usually charged to fighters that beat more popular athletes, like when the Australian titleholder beat Max Holloway, twice, and is meant to minimize his impact and constantly move the goalposts.
Here’s what I know: Volkanovski is 10-0 in the UFC and beat an unbeaten Jeremy Kennedy, veteran Darren Elkins, perennial contender Chad Mendes, and former champion Jose Aldo prior to fighting for the title. He then beat Holloway to claim the belt and edged out “Blessed” in a closely contested rematch before beating the bejesus out of Brian Ortega in his last appearance.
That’s a pretty terrific six-fight run. If you want to say Aldo’s best or Holloway’s best stretch was better, it's not by much, and if you think that it is, you’re romanticizing those competitors and holding Volkanovski to a higher standard.
If he wins this weekend, he’ll have as many successful title defences as Holloway managed, and be on a 21-fight winning streak overall. He’s an absolute standout and might be the best fighter on the planet at the moment, so hopefully, after this weekend, he starts getting the respect he deserves.
Aljamain Sterling vs. Petr Yan
Q: Can Sterling prove what he’s the better fighter?
Aljamain Sterling is a much better fighter than some folks are letting on heading into his rematch with Petr Yan this weekend at UFC 273. They’re using the way their first encounter played out as a way to obscure the fact that prior to that contest and its unfortunate ending, Sterling was on a five-fight winning streak and coming off a rapid submission finish of Cory Sandhagen, whom everyone agrees is a standout talent and stands as the best opponent Yan has faced and beaten to date.
The 32-year-old New York native is an outstanding competitor who is particularly strong on the canvas, but has worked consistently to improve his striking, and in the opening stages of their bout at UFC 259, he was running level with the highly regarded Russian.
Now he needs to show he can do that over 25 minutes and earn a victory over the interim bantamweight champion.
It’s a big ask — Yan has only been beaten one other time in his career and he avenged that loss, and he’s coming off a dynamic showing against Sandhagen, where he answered any lingering questions about his ability to hang with Top 5 talents — but Sterling has maintained that a lot of what went wrong the first time around was physical, between his lingering neck issues and not re-fuelling properly before the fight, and that he’s addressed those issues.
He started well last time and if he can maintain that pace and output for five rounds, this could be a lot more competitive than I think most people believe it will be this weekend.
Sterling is a legitimate, elite talent… but I still don't know if he’s better than Yan.
Gilbert Burns vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Q: Will the hype hit new levels or is this where it comes to die?
Anyone that has read my work over the last couple years knows that while countless people were tripping over themselves to crown Chimaev as the greatest prospect in the history of prospects and heap praise on him for beating John Phillips, Rhys McKee, and Gerald Meerschaert, I was leading the “let’s just pump the brakes on this a little” brigade.
When he went out and smashed Li Jingliang last fall, I was forced to admit that he’s a tremendous prospect and someone I definitely want to see against top competition, and now here we are, with the surging, burgeoning superstar set to square off with Burns in the middle bout of this weekend’s pay-per-view main card, and entering as a massive betting favourite.
Truth be told, I still have no idea who I’m going to pick in this one come Friday, but it’s honestly the fight I’m most looking forward to this weekend, and probably all year thus far, because we all know how damn good Burns is and if Chimaev does to him what he’s done to everyone else at this point, than the landscape in the welterweight division is about to undergo a massive shift.
However, this could also be the point where folks are forced to ease up on viewing the marauding 27-year-old as a king without a crown and acknowledge that as good as he’s looked, there are still levels to this and he’s not quite at that elite level just yet.
This is an utterly fascinating fight in so many ways and I cannot wait to see how it plays out this weekend.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Tecia Torres
Q: Where do these two women stand?
I adore this fight — and fights like this in general — because when the dust settles, we’re going to know precisely where each of these women stand in the strawweight division.
Dern enters stationed at No. 5 in the rankings, but coming off a loss to Marina Rodriguez that highlighted some of the holes that remain in her game. She’s 11-2 for her career, 6-2 in the UFC, and at that point where if she’s going to take the next step forward and become a bona fide contender, we need to see it here.
Torres enters at No. 7 in the division and riding a three-fight winning streak, which followed a four-fight skid. A lot was made about her struggles during that run of bad results, but she lost to three now former champions — Jessica Andrade, Zhang Weili, and Joanna Jedrzejczyk — and Rodriguez, and has shown that she’s back to being the “Tiny Tornado” of old in her most recent outings.
This feels like the individual fight version of a situation I talk about a great deal in this space — where someone has a tremendous two, three, or four year run, but ultimately burns out and fades away standing in contrast to a divisional stalwart that may not climb as high in the rankings, but remains a fixture for five, six, seven years, which is ridiculously difficult to do.
Dern rocketed out beyond Torres in the rankings, but feels like she’s coming back down to Earth, while the 32-year-old veteran has never fallen outside of the Top 15 and been rock-steady, even during that rough patch.
This weekend, we’ll get a clearly picture of where each one goes from here.
Vinc Pichel vs. Mark O. Madsen
Q: Who moves closer to the Top 15?
The lightweight division is loaded and working your way into the Top 15 can take four, five, or six wins, depending on who you’re matched up against. In many other divisions, both Pichel and Madsen (above) would be closer than they are, as each enters on a three-fight winning streak inside the Octagon, but instead, they’re facing off here to see which one moves ahead and gets closer to facing a Top 15 opponent.
Pichel is one of those underrated, unheralded types that I love — someone that has been around for a while, but limited due to injuries, which ends up obscuring the fact that he’s 14-2 overall and 7-2 in the UFC. He’s strong as an ox, mean and angry when he gets in the Octagon, and better than he gets credit for most of the time.
Madsen is 11-0 for his career and 3-0 in the UFC, entering off a questionable split decision win over Clay Guida last time out. A three-time Olympian who won a silver medal in 2016, the 37-year-old Dane is still piecing together the other parts of his game as a mixed martial artist, but has the competitiveness, drive, and toughness needed to continue making up ground while facing tough competition every time out.
This is a crucial pairing for each man as they need a big win here in order to force their way into an even bigger matchup next time out, and I’m happy to see it get shuffled into the opening spot on the main card, because I think we will see the winner against a familiar name — and maybe even a Top 15 talent — next time out.
Ian Garry vs. Darian Weeks
Q: Can Weeks be an agent of chaos?
It’s a little strange to me that I’ve become the leader of the “Pump the Brakes Brigade” over the last few years because I used to get so ridiculously excited about prospects, but I think it stems from the fact that after more than a dozen years watching fights, I’ve seen scores of would-be superstars fail to live up to the hype and become the championship contenders they’re forecasted to be when they’re just started out at the highest levels.
I say all that because I need to say this: I’m not sold on Garry being the future superstar he’s projected to be quite yet, and I’m looking forward to seeing if Weeks can help sway me one way or the other this weekend.
Garry has maintained the right position on this the whole way through, acknowledging that he has a lot to learn and a great deal of time before he’s a finished product and ready to contend for UFC gold, but while everyone seems to fixate on how his debut ended, I’m more interested in the four minutes and change before he landed clean on Jordan Williams, especially now that he’s facing someone that we’ve seen give a divisional stalwart a run for his money on short notice.
The 24-year-old Irishman took some shots against Williams, and while he weathered them and ultimately found the finish in the first round, I’m curious to see if Weeks can come out here and build off what Williams did initially. He held his own against Bryan Barberena on short notice last winter, and is again in the “nothing to lose” position heading into this one, so I’m interested to find out if he can push and press Garry, and maybe even had “The Future” his first career loss this weekend.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Marcin Tybura
Q: Has there ever been a better example of the tiers that exist at heavyweight than this fight?
Heading into the fight between Curtis Blaydes and Chris Daukaus a couple weeks back, the boys over at Severe MMA and I talked about how heavyweight is very clearly delineated in that Blaydes was the fourth or fifth-best fighter in the division, Daukaus fell somewhere in the 7-10 range, and the fight would play out accordingly, which it did.
This fight feels like an even bigger example of that, as Rozenstruik stands at No. 8 in the division, Tybura sits at No. 10, and that feels perfectly representative of who they are, where they fit, and how this division lines up.
Rozenstruik had a terrific rookie campaign, going 4-0 in his first 11 months on the roster, but has been inconsistent since then, alternating wins and losses and settling into place in the middle five in the rankings, much like Daukaus. Tybura kind of went the other way, struggling to find consistent results out of the gate before rattling off five straight wins to climb into the 8-15 range in the division prior to losing to Alexander Volkov last time out.
Now they cross paths here in a fight that won’t necessarily move either of them forward, but will cement where the winner stands heading into the second half of the year, and I’m interested to see how it plays out.
Raquel Pennington vs. Aspen Ladd
Q: How does Ladd respond following a tumultuous 2021?
Aspen Ladd had a shit 2021, at least professionally.
After suffering a major knee injury in 2020, she was scheduled to return in July, only for her fight with Macy Chiasson to be pushed back when the former TUF winner suffered an injury. It was rescheduled for October, Ladd made some comments about the legitimacy of Chiasson’s injury withdrawal, and then she failed to make weight, leading to the bout being scrapped. A couple weeks later, she jumped into a featherweight fight against Norma Dumont and seemed listless, dropping a decision in a bout that saw her coach/boyfriend Jim West catch heat for the way he was cornering her.
Now she’s back and staring down a potentially miserable matchup against Pennington, who is the kind of seasoned veteran that is going to give you hell if you’re not on your game when the cage door closes.
Ladd is someone I’ve been high on from the outset of her career, but this is a crossroads moment. She has to make weight, first and foremost, and then she has to look good on Saturday, or else we’re talking about a permanent move to ‘45 and the speculation about whether she needs to change camps or if she’ll ever reach her full potential will commence in earnest.
She’s had some very good efforts and has the ability to beat Pennington — and beat her handily, I think — but we haven't see that version of her since the third round of her fight with Yana Kunitskaya more than two years ago, and I’m not sure it’s something you can just dial back up when you need it.
This is an ultra-important fight for the NorCal native and one that I’m fascinated to watch this weekend.
Mickey Gall vs. Mike Malott
Q: Is this Mickey Gall’s last chance?
At some point, the UFC is going to have to decide whether it wants to remain in the Mickey Gall business, and I have a feeling that the outcome of this matchup will be a big factor in that process.
Gall is now seven years into his UFC adventure and 30 years old. He’s 7-4 as a fighter, with all but one of those efforts coming inside the Octagon, and he hasn’t won consecutive contests since opening his UFC career with consecutive wins over Mike Jackson, CM Punk, and Sage Northcutt, which might be the most underwhelming trio of wins in UFC history.
If he’s ever going to be more than “The Guy That Fought CM Punk,” he needs to start stitching together strong performances and showing some consistency, but I’m just not sure it’s there. He’s bounced around through different training situations throughout his career and landed at Sanford MMA ahead of this one, which is one of the best spots in the business, so if he’s not focused, sharp, and firing on all cylinders this weekend, it should be an indication that it’s never going to happen for the New Jersey native.
This isn’t an easy matchup either. In fact, you could make a case that this is a situation where the UFC is looking to put Malott — a Contender Series grad and Team Alpha Male representative — over at Gall’s expense; building the new guy off of a win over an established name, which should be the kind of thing that ensures Gall is locked in come Saturday night.
But he’s never really seemed like the “locked in” kind of guy, which is why this feels like it could very well be the last time we see Mickey Gall inside the Octagon.
Aleksei Oleinik vs. Jared Vanderaa
Q: Will Oleinik finally get win No. 60?
Oleinik earned his 59th career win on May 9, 2020 by edging out former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum by split decision. Since then, he’s lost to Derrick Lewis, Chris Daukaus, and Serghei Spivac. This weekend, he takes a fourth crack at getting his 60th win in a clash with Vanderaa, who tagged in for Ilir Latifi.
This is one of those milestones you’re just not going to see very often, if ever again — someone competing at this level, with this much experience, registering a win like this inside the Octagon.
Sure, there will be regional veterans that compete every weekend and post ridiculous numbers a la Tony Lopez, but you’re not going to see someone pile up dozens of victories in the minors, matriculate to the big leagues, and keep chasing down high win totals like this any more; it’s just not how the sport is laid out these days.
What makes it even more intriguing is that this could be Oleinik’s last chance to reach this milestone at this level, because I’m not sure I see a 44-year-old veteran getting a chance to make another appearance if he loses four straight against lesser competition each time out.
Anthony Hernandez vs. Josh Fremd
Q: Can “Fluffy” build off his last victory?
Hernandez scored one of the bigger upsets of the year last year when he submitted multiple-time Brazilian jiu jitsu world champion Rodolfo Vieira, making the decorated Brazilian grappler tap to a guillotine choke. It was a breakthrough effort for the former Dana White’s Contender Series alum and felt like the kind of victory that could be the foundation for the NorCal native to build a little momentum.
Unfortunately for the 28-year-old middleweight, he was forced out of two different follow-up efforts last year, and is only returning to action here, in what can only be characterized as a step back matchup against the debuting Fremd. He was originally scheduled to face fellow DWCS grad Albert Duraev, who gave way to Dricus du Plessis, only to have Kelvin Gastelum take his place opposite the streaking South African and then pull out with an injury of his own last week, which makes the steps back to facing Fremd and even bigger kick in the nuts.
They say “you’re only as good as your last fight,” but what they don’t tell you is that unless you’re a super-duper-star, there is an expiry date on that effort, and Hernandez has blown passed it. He’s back in “needs to answer some questions” territory after a huge win last February, and the only way he’s going to be able to recoup a modicum of that wasted momentum is to come out and make quick work of the promotional newcomer on Saturday.
Piera Rodriguez vs. Kay Hansen
Q: Is this a must-win fight for Kay Hansen?
That sounds crazy to ponder given that she’s 22 years old, won her promotional debut, and her last loss came up a division after more than a year away from competition, but it’s worth asking.
Hansen feels like one of those fighters that is going to put it together at some point and enjoy a lengthy career as a Top 15 fixture, but figuring out when that is going to happen is the challenge because it comes together at different times for different people and she might need a regional circuit reset in order to actually start heading in that direction. I think of it a lot like how Angela Hill just wasn’t ready to compete at the UFC level initially (and wasn’t done any favours in the matchmaking department), but went to Invicta FC, won four fights in a year, and has been a staple in the strawweight division ever since.
We’ve seen flashes of upside from Hansen in her win over Jinh Yu Frey, her narrow loss to Cory McKenna (I thought she won the fight), and even back in her Invicta days, but she’s 7-5 heading into this weekend and a three-fight skid — no matter how it’s constructed — might necessitate a step back in order to eventually facilitate a step forward.
Rodriguez is a debuting fighter who likes to push the pace and fight with aggression, which should give Hansen some opportunities to land hands and change levels if she wants to grapple, so this could all be a moot point, but I do think there should be a little urgency from the youngster on Saturday just so she doesn’t really have to ponder what comes next.
Julio Arce vs. Daniel Santos
Q: Can Julio Arce remain consistently?
Arce is another fighter that has alternated wins and losses through his last handful of fights, with each triumph translating into a step up in competition that is just a scosche too much and results in a loss.
Last year, after more than 18 months on the sidelines, he returned to bantamweight, stopped Andre Ewell, and then got hustled in against Song Yadong, who returned the favour and stopped him in the second round. It happened in 2018 (beat Daniel Teymur, lose to Sheymon Moraes) and 2019 (beat Julian Erosa, lose to Hakeem Dawodu) as well, and it’ll be interesting to see if he the pattern will continue now in 2022.
Santos is a promotional newcomer and the kind of guy Arce should, in theory, beat this weekend. Given that he’s coming off a loss, a victory would be holding to the pattern, and would then result in another step up in competition that is just a step too far; I’m thinking someone like Jack Shore or Montel Jackson.
But first things first — he needs to get through Santos on Saturday.
