UFC 273: Punch Drunk Predictions

Volkanovski or Jung? Sterling or Yan? Burns or Chimaev? It's time to pick some fights!

Let’s. Fucking. GO!

Sorry for cussing right out of the gate, but I’m fired the fuck up for this card, pumped to be back making picks because I’m having a good year thus far, and after a week off with a whole lot of house-slash-life stress, I cannot wait to post up in my office for seven hours tomorrow and watch a whole bunch of people punch each other in the face.

There are a bunch of ultra-competitive, tremendously important pairings on this card, and a few people I want to see back in there in order to continue making reads on where they stand, so let’s get Friday over and done with, tomorrow morning’s cleaning and tidying out of the way, and get down to business.

UFC 273.

Punch Drunk Predictions.

Thundercats are go!

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Alexander Volkanovski vs. Chan Sung Jung

I think Volkanovski is the best fighter on the planet right now, so I’m certainly not going to pick against him here.

This feels to me like a fight where the featherweight champ can really make a statement. He needs to be wary of the power shots that will be coming his way, but he’s shown a good chin and sound defensive tactics throughout his UFC run, and more than that, I believe he’ll do a lot of work interrupting Jung’s timing and dictating how this fight plays out.

Volkanovski can win this fight regardless of where it takes place, I believe we’ll see a little bit of everything from him on Saturday: a little trading in the center, a little stick-and-move aggression, some counter work, a bit of grappling; the whole gamut. But more than anything, I think we’re going to see him work at a pace that Jung can’t keep up with, which will lead to the champion suffocating the challenger somewhere in the third or fourth round.

The title returns to Australia, folks are forced to really give Volkanovski his due, and the talk of a third meeting with Max Holloway ramps up once more.

Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski

Aljamain Sterling vs. Petr Yan

Sterling is an exceptional talent and the aftermath of his first meeting with Yan has clouded and impacted the way some people think of him as a fighter. They were put off by the way he handled his victory and everything since, which caused them to focus exclusively on the fact that he’s gotten under their skin, and ignore that he’s an excellent fighter who had won five straight, including a brilliant performance against Cory Sandhagen, prior to UFC 259.

But as my man Harry Powell said on yesterday’s Severe MMA Preview Show, Yan is 10-15% better than Sterling just about everywhere, and we’ll see that shine through on Saturday.

I have a little tinge of worry about Yan being too fired up, too bent on punishing Sterling that he makes a mistake early and gets caught in something, but outside of that, I feel like Sterling needs to be perfect and execute flawlessly in order to get it done, and I just don’t see him doing that here; not against someone as dangerous and skilled as Yan.

The Russian is simply too smooth, too icy, too relentless. Even when he’s behind, even when he’s getting hit with good shots, he’s coming forward and looking to engage, and I think as he fight wears on, that constant pressure in the face of whatever is coming his way is going to be dispiriting for Sterling, and ultimately what breaks him. I also think we’ll see Yan get comfortable and get loose earlier than he has in recent fights as well, since he’s already got 20 minutes of experience in the Octagon with Sterling, so he shouldn’t need as much time to make his reads and get his timing down.

I expect this to be close and competitive early, but Yan to pull away through three, four, and five to win a unanimous decision.

Prediction: Petr Yan

Gilbert Burns vs. Khamzat Chimaev

I just can’t pick against “The Smeshing Machine” here, and yes, I’m calling him “The Smeshing Machine” as a remix on Mark Kerr’s nickname and the way he says, “smash.”

Burns is an elite welterweight and could very well win this fight — he’s easily the toughest test Chimaev has faced thus far, a massive step up from Li Jingliang and everyone else he’s beaten, and someone with genuine power that should be the first to punch Chimaev in the face and give us a chance to see how the streaking two-division menace deals with being punched in the face.

But it’s impossible to pick against him here because he’s out-landed opponents 112-1 in his first four fights, stopped the last three in the first, and looks, at this juncture, like he’s going to fight for and potentially win the goddamn welterweight title before the year is out. This is one of those “until I see someone beat him, I can’t pick against him” situations and as much as I’ve been hesitant to embrace Chimaev as this juggernaut of a prospect, it’s pretty clear that I was wrong and I have to roll with him this weekend.

Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev

Mackenzie Dern vs. Tecia Torres

I like Torres here, simply because she’s the more experienced and far more adept striker of the two.

Look, if Dern has figured out how to get into her grappling setups quicker and more efficiently, this thing is a wrap because she’ll drag Torres to the canvas and collect an arm or her neck with swiftness, but I don’t think the fighter we saw against Marina Rodriguez is going to have made the necessary adjustments and fundamental improvements needed to close the gaps in that part of her skill set in exactly six months. If she has, more power to her and great job proving me wrong, but I’m gonna need to see the proof before I believe it.

Conversely, I know exactly what Torres is going to do from the opening second of this fight until the final horn sounds: stick-and-move, dart in to land and dart out to escape, mixing in kicks to different levels, strafing combinations, and generally frustrating the hell out of Dern with her quickness, elusiveness, and smoothness.

Far too many people took Torres losing four straight to mean she was washed when it was simply that she was constantly bumping up against her ceiling facing championship-tier talents. Who you’re fighting can’t be ignored when looking at results, and historically speaking, you have to be a championship-level talent to beat Torres, and I don’t think Dern is at that level.

Prediction: Tecia Torres

Vinc Pichel vs. Mark O. Madsen

I believe this is where Madsen’s unbeaten run comes to an end.

As much as he is a legitimate world-class wrestler, Olympic wrestling and mixed martial arts are not the same thing, and while he’s quickly progressed since going all-in on his MMA ambitions following the 2016 Summer Games, there comes a point where he’s facing a more well-rounded, more experienced opponent that is going to be able to match him in the grappling department and beat him everywhere else and I think Pichel is that guy.

Clay Guida was just about that guy last time out, and Austin Hubbard pushed Madsen in the third round of their fight as well, which leads me to believe that “From Hell” is going to be able to have solid success and secure another victory here.

Pichel is better than people recognize — he’s only lost to ranked opponents, thoroughly out-worked Jim Miller in final two rounds of their fight, and dusted Hubbard without pause last time out. He’s simply one of those guys that hasn’t fought routinely enough to ever build momentum, but that doesn’t mean the talent isn’t there.

This feels like a coming out party for the TUF Live alum.

Prediction: Vinc Pichel

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Preliminary Card Picks

Ian Garry def. Darian Weeks
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Marcin Tybura
Aspen Ladd def. Raquel Pennington
Mickey Gall def. Mike Malott
Aleksei Oleinik def. Jared Vanderaa
Anthony Hernandez def. Josh Fremd
Kay Hansen def. Piera Rodriguez
Julio Arce def. Daniel Santos

2022 PDP Record: 83-39-0 (.680)