UFC 274: One Question for Every Fight
Saturday's pay-per-view fight card is flush with compelling matchups. These are the questions that intriguing about those contests.
Saturday’s card is loaded and I have genuine interest and questions about each and every fight.
This is one of those few times where I’d rather not wax lyrical and instead just get right to it because honestly, if you’re not already jazzed about this card and dying to dive into its depths, I think you will be once you think about these matchups and the questions that intrigue me about each pairing.
LFG
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Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje
Q: Can Gaethje avoid making any mistakes?
Outside of landing a monster shot that puts Oliveira out on Saturday (which is possible), I think that Gaethje needs to fight a mistake-free fight in order to get the victory, and I’m really curious to see if the confident, aggressive challenger is able to do that against one of the most opportunistic finishers we’ve ever seen in the UFC.
Oliveira has answered all the questions about his ability or willingness to deal with adversity in his last two fights, and finished each of those men — one who then went the distance with Gaethje (Michael Chandler) and another who bested him earlier in their careers (Dustin Poirier) — so I don’t think anyone backing Gaethje here should be banking on “Oliveira is going to wilt under the pressure.”
To me, this comes down to Gaethje avoiding mistakes — not dipping his head into a knee up the middle, not giving up his back in a scramble, not leaving his neck exposed as he tries to get away from Oliveira’s clutches — and taking a more measured approach this time around. He needs to channel the performance he had against Tony Ferguson to get the win here, not look to emulate what he did against some of the others he’s taken out in the past.
And if he slips up, even once, it could be game over.
Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza
Q: Can Esparza make this a grappling match?
Obvious question, right? Well, sometimes those are the most important ones to ask.
Esparza dominated the first fight with her grappling and has continued to rely heavily on her wrestling skills while working her way back to a championship opportunity, while Namajunas has showed considerable development and improvement in all areas since that first encounter. But last time out against Zhang Weili, the champion got taken down a handful of times, and although she was often able to scurry to her feet or find her way to top position, it’s raises questions about whether Esparza can use an adapted version of her initial approach to beat Namajunas for a second time.
Now, Esparza uses different setups than Zhang did against Namajunas, and the champion has, as I said, made considerable strides, including on the canvas, since their first encounter, but Esparza is the type of fighter that doesn’t really let you do much once she gets you on the deck. More importantly, she showed in her last outing that when she wants to get offensive, instead of just grinding out clock, she can do serious damage.
Namajunas is understandably the favourite here and expected to win — she has more tools, more weapons at her disposal, and she’s unbeaten in rematches, if that kind of thing matters to you — but Esparza is far from a sacrificial lamb being led to the slaughter. She’s an outstanding grappler, and if she can drag the champion to the ground early and keep her there, it could shift the dynamics of the fight.
Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson
Q: What — if anything — does Ferguson have left in the tank?
Tony Ferguson is 38 years old.
While not old in general terms (I’ve got five years on him, and I don’t consider myself particularly old), it’s old in terms of competing at the highest level in one of the deepest, most competitive divisions in the sport. When you mix in the number of rounds he’s logged in the Octagon, the amount of punishment he’s taken and doled out in the gym and in the cage, and the fact that we’ve seen a clear down-shift in productivity and success over the last couple years, I genuinely wonder if Ferguson has anything left to offer this weekend against Chandler?
It seems crazy because he’s not that far removed from being one of the best lightweights in the sport and he’s only a couple years older than Chandler, who turned 36 late last month, but just looking at them before and during their most recent outings (and ahead of this one), one looks fresh and ready to go and the other is Tony Ferguson.
Some fighters age gracefully and slowly work their way backwards in the division, eager to continue competing while recognizing that mixing it up with the best of the best isn’t good for their long-term health. Others believe they’re still the same fighter they were in their prime, refusing to see results as indicative of a need for change (or to stop), and end up taking a sharp, sudden fall off a cliff.
Saturday night is going to tell us where Ferguson is at, and I have a feeling a lot of people aren’t going to like the answer.
Mauricio Rua vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Q: How does one explain the UFC career of “Shogun” Rua?
The fact that Rua lost his UFC debut and then eked one out against Mark Coleman in his sophomore appearance well over a year later to get his first win should have been a harbinger of how things were going to play out for the former Pride standout.
As he readies to run it back with Saint Preux this weekend, Rua’s record in the UFC stands at 11-10-1. For a brief period in time, he was one of the absolute best light heavyweights on the planet, but that moment passed quickly and he settled in to being a former superstar plagued by injuries that gave you occasional glimpses of the skills and talents that previously made him great.
Rua never looked the part of a world-beater in the UFC, with his too-tight, too-short vale tudo shorts fighting to contain that little belly roll that always spilled out over the top and the tree trunks he calls thighs, and his decline was sharp and sudden. But there was also a stretch where he was undeniably one of the best in the division, even if the results weren’t always there, and he feels destined to be one of the greatest “What If…” questions in UFC.
What if Shogun was healthy? What if he was able to stay active? What if he came to the UFC sooner?
Careers littered with questions like that are always hard to define and discuss, and Shogun’s might be the most difficult of all.
Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon
Q: Have the wheels fallen off for Cerrone?
Any time I’ve spoken with “Cowboy” and the subject of retirement has come up, he’s always said, and I’m paraphrasing here, that he’s “going to ride this thing until the wheels fall off.”
Has that maybe already happened?
Cerrone arrives in Phoenix on a six-fight run without a victory. The last time he won a fight was exactly three years ago today in Ottawa against Al Iaquinta. The last time he fought was just under a year ago against Alex Morono, who took the fight on short notice, and it didn’t make it out of the opening round.
Maybe Cerrone needed some time away to re-charge the batteries and stop taking damage for a piece in order to get back into a position where he can win a fight this weekend, but much like I was saying with Ferguson, old war horses like these two don’t usually have a renaissance once it starts running real bad. And I know some folks will want to say that Cerrone has rebounded from gnarly stretches before, but he’s honestly only had one extended losing streak in the past, got right with a tetra-pack of wins over guys that were always slightly overrated, and has come up against it ever since.
It’s curious to me that he’s the favourite in this fight because as much as Lauzon hasn’t fought in a couple years, he’s got a more recent win than Cerrone, and that’s saying something given that he hasn’t competed since clocking Jonathan Pearce in October 2019.
Maybe the old gunslinger wins one last duel, but I’m more inclined to think that the wheels have already fallen off for Cerrone and he’s just being too stubborn to admit it.
Andre Fialho vs. Cameron VanCamp
Q: What’s the rush with Fialho?
Fialho has barely been on the roster for five months and this is already his third fight. While I understand that he took no real damage last time out against Miguel Baeza, that fight happened less than a month ago and this feels like an odd step backwards manufactured just to get him back in the Octagon expediently.
If the aim is to try and replicate the hype that surrounded Khamzat Chimaev when he rattled off three wins in quick succession to start his UFC run, that ship has already sailed — Fialho lost his debut and doesn’t have the buzz that “The Smeshing Machine” carried and garnered following his Fight Island run.
If the goal is to get him a couple quick wins in order to really push him as a contender in the 170-pound weight class, I don’t see why beating VanCamp – and he’s going to beat VanCamp — changes the way anyone looks at him following his drubbing of Baeza last month.
This just feels hurried for no real reason to me. Why not give him another step up in competition in a couple months instead of rushing him back in there this weekend in a matchup with very little upside?
Randy Brown vs. Khaos Williams
Q: Who takes another step forward?
If you know me, you know I love fights like this when they’re well timed, and this one is well timed.
Brown enters on a two-fight winning streak and having won four of his last five. Williams in 4-1 his five UFC appearances, earning tandem victories on either side of a loss to Michel Pereira. Both are established in the upper-middle class of the welterweight division, and each is seeking the type of win (or winning streak) that elevates them into the upper class, and in order to get there, they have to go through each other.
This is when you pair off fighters like this — when the downside is limited and no matter the result, the victor is a person of interest moving forward.
Now, there’s no accounting for MMA fans and they’ll probably continue to care less than they should about Brown and Williams — two solid, still ascending welterweights with the goods to claim a spot in the lower-third of the rankings — but the winner of this one should land opposite someone like Li Jingliang or Santiago Ponzinibbio or perhaps even Fialho, who seems to be getting treated like he’s already in that class.
I honestly wish this fight — and fights like this — got more space on a Fight Night main card because it’s just getting buried here, but I’m still pumped to see it and figure out what comes next once the dust settles.
Macy Chiasson vs. Norma Dumont
Q: What does the future hold for Chiasson?
It seems a bit unfair to ask such a large, ominous sounding question about a fighter that is just nine fights into their career, but this weekend feels like a real crossroads moment for Chiasson and I don’t have a good sense which way things are going to go for her both on Saturday and going forward in general.
She turns 31 this summer and is more than three years removed from winning the featherweight competition on TUF 28. Her post-TUF tenure consists of wins over Gina Mazany, Sarah Moras, Shanna Young, and Marion Reneau, and losses to Lina Lansberg and Raquel Pennington, which came at featherweight in a bout where Chiasson missed the mark by a couple pounds. She’s had some injuries and health issues at different points, plus a little bad luck, and feels like a stalled former prospect in dire need of a statement effort this weekend.
Dumont has been solid over he last three outings, wins over Ashlee Evans-Smith, Felicia Spencer, and Aspen Ladd, and while Chiasson will have a considerable size and reach advantage, I’m not sure if she fully understands how to use those things to her advantage yet, which is part of what has limited her to this point.
All that being said, I have the utmost belief in Sayif Saud and the team at Fortis MMA when it comes to getting fighters prepared and bringing them along in their careers, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Chiasson have a monster outing at UFC 274.
It just also wouldn’t surprise me if she comes out flat and catches a second straight loss either.
Brandon Royval vs. Matt Schnell
Q: How can you not appreciate Brandon Royval?
Royval makes his sixth appearance inside the Octagon this weekend just a few weeks ahead of the two-year anniversary of his promotional debut.
All the Factory X Muay Thai representative has done since arriving in the UFC is fight Top 10 opponents. He submitted Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France, lost to Brandon Moreno (in a bout where he suffered a dislocated shoulder) and Alexandre Pantoja, and then rebounded with a split decision win over Rogerio Bontorin to start his 2022 campaign. And now he’s facing Schnell.
More people need to be talking about and singing the praises of cats like Royval. It’s criminal that we spend so much time talking about unranked, untested names when people like the 29-year-old flyweight go out there and test themselves against the best in the division every time out and get very limited coverage, recognition, or attention.
I know I harp on this stuff all the time, but here’s the truth: if the media members that bitch about the UFC not promoting fighters and not being familiar with fighters spent more time trying to get to know those athletes, they wouldn’t be unknowns or under the radar any more.
It’s almost like they don’t understand the power of their voices, their positions, their platforms and feel like they can only speak about athletes and familiarize themselves with athletes that are forced upon them or already enjoying a moment in the spotlight.
Fighters like Royval deserve so much more better.
Blagoy Ivanov vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Q: Where does Ivanov currently fit in the heavyweight division?
Even though it’s been nearly two years since he last competed — and nearly three years since his last win — Ivanov enters Saturday meeting with de Lima holding down the final spot in the Top 15 in the heavyweight division. But is that really where he fits?
The Bulgarian is now 35 and has been through all kinds of different trials and tribulations throughout his professional career, and I can’t help but wonder if he’s one of those folks that is 35 going on 62?
I don’t say that to be cruel or judgmental — I have the utmost respect for the resolve and drive Ivanov has shown throughout his career, coming back from everything he went through earlier in life – but that stuff has to put some years on you too. He’s never quite reached the level that was expected for him pre-stabbing — understandably — and after a two-year hiatus, I’m not sure I see him dialling it back up to make a real run at things.
Facing de Lima is a perfect way to measure where he’s at and where he fits, as the Brazilian veteran is just dangerous enough to catch you if you’re slipping, but not quite dangerous enough to beat you if you’ve still got more than a little something left in the tank.
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Danny Roberts
Q: Do you know how good a UFC career Trinaldo has had?
Trinaldo is a perfect example of one of those fighters that has enjoyed the kind of largely successful career that far too many people either overlook or just dismiss because he’s never risen to the point of being a title contender.
The 43-year-old Brazilian is 17-7 inside the Octagon, with wins over Ross Pearson, Paul Felder, Jim Miller, and Bobby Green (amongst others) and losses to Gleison Tibau, Michael Chiesa, Kevin Lee, and Alexander Hernandez in a fight I still think should have gone the other way. Tying into yesterday’s column, Trinaldo is the quintessential journeyman and an absolute ecosystem guy — a perennially tough out who facing everyone and anyone the UFC offers him (across various divisions), and is 10 fights to the good overall.
Do you know how difficult it is to fight for as long as he has and be 10 fights above .500 in the UFC, especially when the bulk of that time was spent competing at lightweight? It’s not like he was just mixing it up with lower tier talents either.
We really do need to do a much better job at acknowledging and appreciating fighters like Trinaldo because they genuinely don’t come around all that often.
Tracy Cortez vs. Melissa Gatto
Q: Is Cortez a contender, a pretender, or something in between?
As I said on Monday, I haven’t been particularly impressed by Cortez during her first three UFC outings, and her final two appearances prior to joining the roster didn’t bowl me over either, which leaves me completely unsure of where she stacks up in the talent-rich flyweight division.
First and foremost, I’m not sure if she can consistently make the 125-pound limit. She missed last time and the process doesn’t necessarily get easier as you get older, so how she looks and what the scales says on Friday morning will be a crucial first touchpoint.
Secondly, she been mostly just a grinder thus far, and while I love me some grimy wrestlers, I’m genuinely curious to see how long Cortez can deploy that style and continue to be successful as she works her way into more difficult assignments. Out-hustling lesser talents or short-notice replacements is one thing, but can she successfully out-grapple someone like Gatto coming off a full camp and with a full compliment of weapons at her disposal?
Lastly, I can’t shake the feeling that she’s the heir to Paige VanZant’s place on the UFC roster — a reasonably talented, but still limited fighter who remains popular despite middling results. I know saying “middling results” about someone that is 3-0 in the UFC and on a nine-fight winning streak sounds real petty, but this feels like Cortez’s first real test and I cannot wait to see it and have these questions answered.
Kleydson Rodrigues vs. CJ Vergara
Q: Will Rodrigues be another Brazilian DWCS prospect to watch?
Jailton Almeida and Caio Borralho have already enjoyed breakthrough efforts inside the Octagon this year, and Joanderson Brito rebounded from his debut loss in dynamic fashion last weekend. On Saturday, Rodrigues looks to pull alongside his countryman with a similarly impressive showing against fellow DWCS grad Vergara.
The 26-year-old, who trains with Bellator flyweight champ Julianna Velasquez, earned a clean sweep of the scorecards in his win over Santo Curatolo last fall in Las Vegas, and had won his last five before that as well. He’s an absolute unit at 125 pounds, and profiles — at least initially — as someone that could make a little noise in the flyweight division.
Vergara started slowly and found his rhythm too late in his debut loss to Ode’ Osbourne, and will certainly be eager to avoid a two-fight skid to start his UFC tenure, so we should get a good opportunity to get a better sense of what Rodrigues brings to the table and what to expect from him in both the short term and the long term on Saturday.
Ariane Carnelossi vs. Loopy Godinez
Q: Who is the better strawweight prospect?
Much like the fight between Brown and Williams, this is another one that I wish had earned a main card opportunity on a Fight Night show, rather than being relegated to the Fight Pass prelims this weekend because I think a whole lot of people don’t appreciate how good each of these two were in 2021 and what an intriguing matchup this is within the strawweight division.
Note: I still don’t think fight card placement matters in terms of how we talk about the athletes or the skills they possess, but recognize, as always, that it impacts peoples’ perspective and how they see those competitors.
Carnelossi earned a pair of stoppage wins last, pounding out a second-round finish over Na Liang in April before submitting Istela Nunes in October. Godinez went 2-2, but the first of those losses was an ultra-close split decision against Jessica Penne and the second was a fight on one week’s notice up a division.
Both are excellent grapplers, powerhouses for the 115-pound weight, and interesting prospects meeting at a good time in their trajectories. They’re each still relatively young in terms of their careers and south of 30, so the winner here should get a solid bump up in competition and become someone people pay a little more attention to going forward.
Journey Newson vs. Fernie Garcia
Q: How will Garcia look in his promotional debut?
You give me a fighter on a five-fight winning streak, coming off a first-round stoppage win on Dana White’s Contender Series, repping Fortis MMA, and I’m going to pay close attention.
The 30-year-old Garcia is 10-1 for his career, but his Natan Levy Number isn’t great and the one guy he lost to has only managed a 3-2 record since, so it’s reasonable to question the level of competition he’s faced to this point. Now, you can only beat the people they put in front of you and Garcia has consistently done that, he slowed slick hands on the Contender Series, and he should get a chance to throw this weekend against the returning Newson, so this feels like a great chance to get a good look at the latest Fortis MMA product to graduate to the Octagon.
I think Garcia will end up being an all-action addition to the bantamweight division — a guy that gets into some entertaining battles, but struggles to consistently post positive results — but that’s just my initial impression, and I’m always open to being proven wrong.