UFC 274: Punch Drunk Predictions
After consecutive rough weeks, it's time to get back on track with Saturday's 15-fight slate
There is nothing worse than a bad run of results.
Okay, there are a lot of things worse than a bad run of results when you’re making fight selections, but in the micro, writing for my newsletter where I make fight selections sense, there is nothing worse than a bad run of results, and after a rough week a UFC Vegas 52, it goes worse last week with UFC Vegas 53.
Consecutive losing weeks and a less than .400 winning percentage last week have me a rattled, I’m not gonna lie, but I do feel like this week’s card is one where I can really turn things around. I know I said that last week too, and if things go south on Saturday, I’ll say it next Friday as well because a couple bad weeks aren’t going to make me completely second-guess my abilities when it comes to analyzing and forecasting fights.
UFC 274 offers 15 opportunities to get it right, and while I’m not sitting here expecting to go 15-0 (wouldn’t that be great though?), I do think another 10-win-or-more effort is in the offing.
I can feel it.
Now I sound like those cash-strapped gamblers I used to associate with back in my days hanging around race tracks and casino floors I mentioned yesterday.
It all comes full circle.
Here are my picks.
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Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje
Just when it seems like we all should be done doubting Oliveira, he gets tossed in with another slugger that can cause him all kinds of problems, especially early.
Gaethje is going to be in his face from Jump Street, and probably stings him in the opening round as both Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier did. Neither of those men was able to put Oliveira away, however, and I think Gaethje will struggle there as well, with the champion settling in and finding his rhythm in the second and third before getting a finish in the championship rounds.
There has been chatter about how Oliveira can turn this into a grappling match when he’s not a “double leg in the center of the cage” type of guy, but I’d argue his overall stickiness and Demian Maia-like ability to turn getting his hands on you into a precarious situation is how he gets things done. He doesn’t need to drag Gaethje to the deck and put him on his back in the center of the Octagon — he just needs to cling to a leg or his waist or jump on his back in a transition and then he’s in control.
Maybe Gaethje gets it done and does what Chandler and Poirier can’t, but I’ve seen him wilt and succumb to superior talents more often in the last couple years than I have Oliveira, and I’m well beyond the point of doubting the champion.
Prediction: Charles Oliveira
Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza
Just as with the main event, the challenger has a very real possibility of walking away the champion here. Esparza is outstanding from top position and only needs one takedown, one slip, one caught kick in any round to grind out clock and do some damage, and she could certainly win three or more rounds that way.
But she’s also someone that gets sloppier and more telegraphed as the fight progresses, which is why I think Namajunas has to be especially sharp out of the gate, using her speed, her movement, and her range-striking ability to hurt Esparza, stifle her early attempts at entries and start tiring her out. The challenger’s hands aren’t good enough to win this fight solely on the feet, and eating jabs for a round or two will take the drive out of her into the latter rounds, making it easier for Namajunas to defend the inevitable takedown attempts and cruise to victory.
The champion needs to be locked in and avoid throwing lazy, naked kicks, but as long as she’s focused and moving, she should be able to defend her title.
Prediction: Rose Namajunas
Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson
I think Ferguson is washed and he’s just incapable of admitting or acknowledging it, and it’s going to get him beat up on Saturday.
Chandler has lost consecutive competitive fights against the two men fighting for the title this weekend; Ferguson has been largely non-competitive for 11 straight rounds, save for maybe one against Gaethje. He looks like a fighter whose age and mileage just suddenly caught up to him between his win over Cowboy Cerrone and his fight with Gaethje, and once that happens, there is no turning back.
The former Bellator standout will need to still be cautious and patient with his approaches, but he should be able to bomb on Ferguson and either get him out of there quickly or pummel him for 15 minutes.
Prediction: Michael Chandler
Mauricio Rua vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Every fibre of my being wants to see Rua come out and get a quick, violent victory, but I can’t bring myself to make that pick; not after 18 months away, 40 fights, and having looked like he was held together by duct tape for the last dozen fights.
“Shogun” has fought just eight times since his first meeting with Saint Preux, while OSP has logged 18 appearances. Sometimes, the more active, more healthy guy wins by default, and this feels like one of those instances. Saint Preux isn’t the awkward, dangerous guy he was earlier in his career, but he’s still got enough pop in his strikes to catch the plodding Brazilian veteran and get him out of there inside the distance.
Saturday could be a really sad night for some fans.
Prediction: Ovince Saint Preux
Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon
I think the idea that Cerrone is just going to saunter into the Octagon and light up Lauzon is laughable. Maybe he does and I’m the one that looks silly, but a year away doesn’t remove all the damage, take away any of the miles, or suddenly get you back to being the guy you were three or four years ago.
Cerrone is 0-5-1 in his last six, and while most of those came against contenders, the last two non-victories came opposite Niko Price and Alex Morono, the latter of whom got him out of there in under five minutes while taking the fight on incredibly short notice.
Yes, Lauzon has been off too — for more than two years now — but he also exited on a win, and a dominant win at that, against a younger, emerging fighter in Jonathan Pearce, and I’m choosing to roll the dice with the underdog whose last win still came more recently than the guy he’s fighting, even though he’s had more than two years and six chances to change that fact.
Lauzon cracks him with a left and finds a choke; that’s my feeling.
Prediction: Joe Lauzon
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Preliminary Card Picks
Andre Fialho def. Cameron VanCamp
Randy Brown def. Khaos Williams
Norma Dumont def. Macy Chiasson
Brandon Royval def. Matt Schnell
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Francisco Trinaldo def. Danny Roberts
Melissa Gatto def. Tracy Cortez
Kleydson Rodrigues def. CJ Vergara
Loopy Godinez def. Ariane Carnelossi
Fernie Garcia def. Journey Newson
2022 PDP Record: 108-62-0 (.635)