UFC 275: One Question for Every Fight

Kicking off our weekly dive into this weekend's upcoming fights with a look at a key question surrounding each matchup slated to hit the Octagon on Saturday

If the fights themselves are about the combatants looking to present one another with dilemmas to address as Harry suggested on Sunday (and he’s is correct), the media perspective on these contests feels like it should be that these encounters are an opportunity have the myriad questions we have about the men and women stepping into the fray answered, at the very least partially answered or edited.

Or is that just me?

While I know I can be sarcastic, facetious, and sometimes an outright dick on here, this is one of those times where I would genuinely like to know how other media members look at this contests and fight cards because from the second a bout crosses my timeline or comes into focus for me, I’m running through at least a couple questions about how it’s going to play out, what it means for the fighters and the division. Bigger fights prompt bigger questions, a greater volume of questions, but it does feel some times like I’m one of only a very small handful of people that thinks about this sport in this way.

And that intrigues me.

As dismissive as I can be some times about what other media members do or do not do, say or do not say, I would always welcome these conversations and discussions, but I’m endlessly fascinated by their processes, their approaches, and their thoughts on these matters, because when you strip it all down to the studs and the floorboards, I’m just a curious and inquisitive dork with an endless supply of questions I want to ask and have answered.

These are the initial ones I have about each of the fights at UFC 275.

* * * * *

Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka
Q: What else does Prochazka have in his bag of tricks?

The light heavyweight title challenger feels like a perfect avatar for this series in a way because despite the fact that he’s challenging for gold this weekend, he remains a gigantic question mark.

Anyone that says they know definitively how Prochazka will manage in the clinch and the grappling exchanges with Teixeira on Saturday is incorrect because we just haven’t seen it yet, so there is no real way to know for sure, which is what makes this fight so compelling. So much hinges on those interactions and the way Prochazka deals with them, because what he’s ability to do in that phase could possibly determine the outcome of the fight.

If Prochazka can hang with Teixeira — survive on the canvas, and work back to his feet — his chances of success increase exponentially, but if he’s put on his back and can’t get up, that’s a different story entirely.

Now, we might not get there, for any of a couple reasons, but because we’ve only seen the 28-year-old Czech standout in striking engagements thus far inside the Octagon, those initial grappling interactions and how he responds to them feel like the bigger question that needs to be answered in this fight.

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Taila Santos
Q: Will Shevchenko ever get caught slipping?

If she sticks around long enough it’s bound to happen, but as it stands right now, it’s highly unlikely.

As Sayif Saud, the head coach at Fortis MMA, said in my new Coach Conversation series on the UFC website, “She’s not one of those fighters that have other distractions. She likes to dance and shoot and all that stuff, but I don’t think she has distractions away from what her main goal and purpose is, and that is to be the best martial artist in the world, man or woman.”

I think he’s correct, as I said on Monday’s podcast, and while there is always a chance that both “The General” and I are wrong, it’s hard to envision that being proven this weekend. That it’s to say Santos cannot win — she’s a big, powerful fighter who will walk in there confident she can leave with the belt around her waist — but Shevchenko hasn’t given anyone any reason to believe she’s starting to decline or slow down, and until that day comes, the only way she’s losing is if someone goes out there and beats her.

Shevchenko is a generational talent, a pantheon tier competitor, and I honestly believe that she’ll walk away before she starts falling back to the pack and feels Father Time closing in on her, but those days are not close yet… at least I don’t think so.

Zhang Weili vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Q: What will Jędrzejczyk look like after two years away?

Two years away is a long time…. like a real long time.

As great as Jedrzejczyk was during her championship reign, the pack caught up to her and in some cases passed her prior to her sabbatical, and now she’s back for the first time since her iconic first encounter with Zhang looking to dial it right back up and stamp herself as a top contender again, and I have no idea if she’s going to be able to do it. While time away can allow for your body to heal and to clear your mind, it’s also just two years where you’re not competing, not experiencing the shifts in the sport first-hand inside the cage, and not necessarily pushing yourself to recover the ground you lost over the previous couple years.

Jędrzejczyk is an incredible technician on the feet, but she still lost the first fight, which was fought almost exclusive on terms she was happy to accept, and I’m not sure how two years away changes anything for the better.

Since their first meeting, Zhang has not only remained active at the championship level, but she’s continually been working to improve her game — training with different coaches and teams, pushing in an effort to one day get back to the title she lost last year. Not that the Polish superstar hasn’t been training, but there is a difference between being in the gym to get some work in and stay fit, and going through camps, being an active fighter, and Jedrzejczyk hasn’t been an active fighter for more than two years.

We should know early how the time away has impacted Jedrzejczyk and if her days as a top contender are a thing of the past.

Rogerio Bontorin vs. Manel Kape
Q: Will Kape prove he’s a contender rather than just claiming to be one?

Manel Kape is not locking for confidence, I tell you that much.

From the time he arrived in the UFC, through his tandem decision loss, and onto his twin first-round stoppage wins, “Star Boy” has continued to tell anyone and everyone that he is the best fighter in the division and that it’s only a matter of time until he has gold around his waist. While I appreciate the self-assuredness, but what I would appreciate more is seeing Kape go out there and beat someone on substance in the division, rather than trying to insert himself into the title chase on Twitter.

This fight with Bontorin is a good measuring stick, despite the fact that the Brazilian is without a victory in his last four outings. He’s a Top 10 fixture and a dangerous grappler with a little bit of pop in his hands, plus a chip on his shoulder heading into this one, and the exact type of experienced, talented competitor Kape has struggled against thus far and needs to beat in order to take that next sep forward.

There is no denying his talent and upside, but results are what matter, and thus far, he hasn’t delivered enough when it counts to call himself one a contender and the future ruler of the flyweight division.

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Ramazan Emeev
Q: Where does Della project out in the welterweight division?

Maybe I’m aiming a bit too high and am a little too keen on Della Maddalena, but at the moment, I can see him being someone that resides in the lower third of the Top 15, and that’s without seeing and knowing what the next couple years will bring in terms of growth and development and experience.

Now, to be clear, that’s a top-end projection and one based on a very small sample size, which is why you always hear me roaring about the importance of fights like this for fighters like the Australian.

Saturday’s pairing with Emeev is the kind of quality test the 25-year-old needs to pass in order to move into the upper-middle class in the welterweight ranks — the space where fighters like Kevin Holland, Muslim Saikhov, Alex Morono reside — and one that should be instructive when it comes to recalibrating that projection and the timeline for how quickly he might climb the ranks.

But Della has looked good in his two appearances on UFC programming, and if he turns in another quality effort on Saturday night, he might leave Singapore as someone with Top 10 potential.

SeungWoo Choi vs. Josh Culibao
Q: Where exactly does Culibao fit in the featherweight ranks?

While this is a similar question to the one posed above, it comes from a different perspective.

Where Della Maddalena has shown upside, it’s been more difficult to get a real read on Culibao, who lost his debut up a division against Jalin Turner (who is quite good), returned to featherweight and fought Charles Jourdain (who has looked good of late) to a draw, and then beat Shayilan Nuerdanbieke to push his record to 1-1-1 through his first three fights.

I re-watched the Jourdain fight today and thought the Canadian deserved he nod — Culibao won Round 1 handily by dropping Jourdain and busting his nose, and the former TKO double champ took the third without a doubt, making the middle stanza the swing round. I had Jourdain doing more damage, being the more effective striker, and I wouldn't have given anyone a 10-8 round anywhere, meaning a 29-28 win for my countryman for me.

But Culibao showed good things in that fight and legit had Jourdain on the ropes in the opening frame, which is why I’m so curious to see how this one plays out because Choi is someone that will be happy to exchange and leave openings for takedowns.

As much as Culibao only has one win in three fights, he’s also on a two-fight unbeaten streak, which is a perfect distillation of why I’m having such a hard time figuring out where he fits.

Brendan Allen vs. Jacob Malkoun
Q: Can Allen eventually become a contender?

Allen is someone I’ve mentioned as a “Fighter I Can’t Quit” in previous instalments of 10 Things and a guy I have been high on at different times in his career. He’s still only 26 years old, he’s 6-2 in the UFC, 18-5 overall, and has a solid all-around offensive arsenal… and yet I’m still not sure if he will eventually develop into a full-blown contender in the middleweight division.

It feels like every time I get excited about Allen, he falters; it happened in the Sean Strickland fight and again opposite Chris Curtis, which gives me reason to think he might be a “beat the guys that I’m better than, lose to the guys that are better than me” type for all eternity. That pattern happens often as younger fighters are working their way up the divisional ladder, but some point, the real contenders clear that hurdle and start facing other genuine top-end talents, and this feels like a baby version of that hurdle.

Malkoun has shown good wrestling and solid control in grinding out wins in his last two appearances, but profiles as the kind of guy Allen should beat, especially if he’s going to eventually land a single digit number next to his name. As such, I’m real curious to see how this one plays out because a loss for the Sanford MMA representative feels like it could set him back a good distance and may even cement his standing as some destine to reside just outside the Top 15 for the duration of their career.

Mahershate vs. Steve Garcia
Q: Is Mahershate going to be someone to watch going forward?

This is one fight I’m going to be paying closer attention to than most, as Mahershate impressed me with his win over BFL lightweight champ Ahcilles Estremadura last fall and is someone I’m eager to get another look at.

I genuinely have no idea if he’s going to develop into anything more than just another mid-pack lightweight or lower, because it’s hard to make that kind of call off one appearance against a local guy (for me) that ran through a bunch of middling opponents and shop-worn veterans on the way to an undefeated record. Yes, you can only beat the guys they put in front of you and Estremadura beat a couple of them handily, but he also got thoroughly out-hustled over the final two rounds of his DWCS appearance opposite the Chinese newcomer last fall and has since taken a sabbatical from competition.

This is another well-matched pairing as Garcia has an edge in experience, but isn’t someone that you’re necessarily going to think will blow the doors off Mahershate in this one. He took some smacks in his last appearances against Charlie Ontiveros before getting the finish, and profiles more like a Quad-A fighter than a major leaguer to me.

I like Mahershate’s size and the potential for him to fill out and add functional mass, but he had a short reach, which could be a perennial issue if he doesn’t get stronger physically and develop a strong ability to get inside and work inside. That said, he’s 22 years old, so I’m eager to see how things shake out on Saturday and take it from there.

Andre Fialho vs. Jake Matthews
Q: Can Fialho earn his third win in as many months?

Yes, of course he can, but that’s not really what I mean and you know it.

As much as I’m thoroughly enjoying Fialho’s rookie campaign in the UFC and his quest to obliterate the record for the most fights in a calendar year — he’s on pace for eight appearances; the record is five — I also wonder if the first-year welterweight isn’t getting a little bit ahead of himself by continuing to jump right back into the Octagon just a few weeks after each of these last two victories.

While he’s earned first-round finishes in each of his last two appearances, he got clipped a couple times in each, which tells me he’s either got defensive holes he needs to shore up or he’s fighting with a little too much confidence-slash-not quite enough respect for what his opponents bring to the table. He may have been able to get away with that against Miguel Baeza and Cameron VanCamp, but Matthews is the kind of youthful veteran that can and will make you pay for those things if you’re not careful.

“The Celtic Kid” is a plus-athlete with strong grappling and solid hands, as well as a 6-2 mark in the UFC welterweight division that includes a unanimous decision win over Li Jingliang. He’s quite good, and really the kind of guy I would personally want to fight on a short camp, but then again, I don’t want to fight anybody, regardless of the length of camp I’m afforded.

This just feels like it could be a spot where Fialho steps on a banana skin and loses some of his momentum all because he’s trying to do too much.

Kyung Ho Kang vs. Batgerel Danaa
Q: WIll Kang maintain his pattern of results?

I love silly little things like this.

After losing to Alex Caceres in his promotional debut (fight was ruled a No Contest after Caceres popped for weed), Kang lost one and then won three on consecutive occasions over his next eight fights. Last time out, he lost to Rani Yahya, which means… nothing. It doesn’t actually mean anything, officially, but it’s still a fun little thing to pay attention to his weekend as “Mr. Perfect” steps onto the Octagon against Batgerel, who got into a slugfest with Chris Gutierrez in his most recent appearance and got knocked out for his troubles.

This should be a perfect entertaining, mid-pack fight in the talent-rich bantamweight ranks like we get one or two times per week now it seems, and if you want to grouse about that or can’t have a little smile about Kang’s pattern of results, you really might need to get outside a little more.

Liang Na vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez
Q: Can Gomez Juarez avoid getting caught in an armbar again?

I’m not trying to be a jerk here, but when you get subbed by armbar in consecutive outings, there is no way that I’m not going into your next fight wondering if it’s going to happen again, especially when it feels like a situational awareness thing, as it does with Gomez Juarez.

The first one against Loopy Godinez I might be able to give her a pass on because she took the fight on short notice, Godinez is a bully in the clinch, and she just got stuck in a bad spot and forced to tap. But the loss to Vanessa Demopoulos? That was just terrible Fight IQ and poor decision-making, as the 37-year-old veteran cracked “Lil Monster” with a right hand down the pipe that put her on the deck, and then inexplicably followed her to the floor, where she hung out with her arms inside for far too long and got one of them snatched up.

Now, take a guess at how Liang won her last two fights and six of her 19 career wins?

Ramona Pascual vs. Joselyne Edwards
Q: Could featherweight ever become a real thing in the UFC?

This is the third featherweight fight between female competitors in the UFC this year, so I’m not asking this from a “we’re getting all these featherweight matchups; does that mean the UFC is finally starting to commit to the division” perspective or anything like that.

Just generally speaking — could featherweight ever become a real thing in the UFC?

My initial temptation is to say “Yes” because I think the promotion can successfully do just about anything it sets out to do, including launch, populate, and grow a women’s 145-pound weight class, but when you actually sit down and look at the division overall in the sport, I tend to get a lot more hesitant about my response.

Across the entire sport, there are maybe 20-25 fighters that would regularly, naturally compete in this weight class, plus a few that fight at bantamweight currently that could moonlight or make the shift to avoid cutting weight and look for a fresh start. Even that is barely enough to launch a weight class, and the vast majority of them are signed by promotions other than the UFC, which only complicates things more.

But much like they’ve done in rebuilding the flyweight division after it looked to be headed towards the trash heap, the UFC could still work to build the weight class incrementally and add pieces from there as they become available, but I just don’t think there is a genuine interest from the management side to make that happen.

Which is too bad because at the top end, there were and still are some interesting and sure to be entertaining fights that could have been made.