UFC 275: Punch Drunk Predictions

Who will walk out of Singapore Indoor Stadium with UFC gold wrapped around their waists?

This one should be fun.

All five of the main card matchups should tell us something about the participants and give us a good sense of where they go from here, plus a couple of the preliminary card pairings carry divisional significance and the potential to provide further information on some intriguing talents still looking to really cement themselves in their respective weight classes.

UFC 275 has a bit of a throwback feel for me — a stacked main card with a bunch of compelling, but mostly low-key matchups before it, which should allow for a gradual build to a crescendo in the light heavyweight championship main event.

I’m still trying to chase down that .700 winning percentage and I’m hopeful this one brings me another few percentage points closer, but we shall see.

These are my picks for UFC 275.

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Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka

Accepting the fact that I could get this one all the way wrong and that could be proven early, I’m going to side with the champion to retain here.

Prochazka has a lot of offensive weapons in his arsenal, and maybe he can deploy them with swiftness and accuracy and get Teixeira out of there in a hurry, but I just have too many remaining questions about the unknown elements of his game to immediate go against the battle-hardened titleholder in his first championship defence.

This honestly feels like a case of a lot of people being infatuated with the shiny new toy and believing it will be one-way traffic and a quick night for the surging Prochazka, who hasn’t been forced to fight on any terms but his own through two UFC outings. Teixeira can box and Prochazka has been touched up in each of his two appearances in the Octagon, so it’s not like the champ can’t get it down in the pocket here, but the more likelier course of action is Teixeira turning to his wrestling and making this a grind.

If that’s how things go, a late finish and a successful title defence feels like the most likely outcome to me.

Prediction: Glover Teixeira

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Taila Santos

I honestly think Santos didn’t do herself any favours by suggesting that she and her team found “flaws” in Shevchenko’s game heading into this one, because now “Bullet” is just going to be even more motivated to go out there and deliver the kind of performance that says, “Where are those flaws now, huh?”

Shevchenko is the most complete fighter in the game today in my opinion, and I think she’ll dominate this one much in the same way she dominated Jessica Andrade, using her strength and technique in the clinch to muscle Santos to the canvas, where she’ll lay into the challenger with elbows and punishment until the referee pulls her off.

Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko

Zhang Weili vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk

The fact that this is a three-round fight favours Zhang, who worked at a good clip in the first meeting between these two and can fight with even more urgency and expenditure here, knowing that she doesn’t have to worry about the championship rounds. The other big deciding factor is power, and the Chinese former champion has much more of it.

Jędrzejczyk has to land something similar to the head kick Rose Namajunas connected on in order to really swing things in her favour because as proficient as she is on the feet, I can’t see her out-pointing Zhang in a three-round fight. She’s not going to get out there and out-land Zhang by a wide enough margin to make the impact of the blows that land in return less of a factor, so she’s going to have to find a way to have big moments in each round or secure a finish at some point.

And I just don’t see that happening.

Zhang ran level with her in their first encounter, and won the fight by doing more damage, and with less time to work, I think we see the same final result in the rematch.

Prediction: Zhang Weili

Rogerio Bontorin vs. Manel Kape

This is a fight that Kape needs in order to back up some of his boastful statements and get to where he wants to be in the flyweight division, and while I can see avenues to victory for Bontorin, I ultimately think the explosiveness of the Portuguese fighter will be too much here.

If Bontorin can turn this into a grappling match early and neutralize Kape’s striking, things are going to get interesting, because he’s strong from top position and can lop off big chunks of time controlling things on the canvas, landing shots and hunting for submissions. But getting it there feels like it will be an issue as Kape has seemingly figured out that he can’t be as passive and minimalistic as he was on the feet in his first two UFC appearances.

When he’s attacking and aggressive, Kape is lightning quick and packs a wallop, and I think we see him explode into something — a flying knee, perhaps? — and secure a third consecutive finish in this one. He’ll have to be respectful of Bontorin’s grappling abilities, but pressure and well-timed bursts should produce a finishing opportunity that he makes the most of on Saturday night.

Prediction: Manel Kape

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Ramazan Emeev

If Emeev can turn this into a grappling match, Della could be in trouble, as he’ll be at a technical disadvantage on the deck and despite his overall slipperiness in scrambles, the Russian could be able to control things on the canvas for long stretches.

But I don’t think it’s going to get there; at least not for any real extended amount of time.

This fight hinges on movement and footwork to me — Della Maddalena has it in spades, and Emeev doesn’t, and it should be what leads the Australian to victory. It doesn’t take Della Maddalena long to find his range and rhythm, and he works well from both stances, which should allow him to both pressure Emeev and cut angles as the Russian looks to come forward and return fire.

The speed advantage should be Della’s and unless Emeev can dial up some previously unseen power, I think he gets picked apart by the quicker, higher volume fighter in this one.

Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena

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Preliminary Card Predictions

Brendan Allen def. Jacob Malkoun
SeungWoo Choi def. Josh Culibao
Mahershate def. Steve Garcia
André Fialho def. Jake Matthews
Kyung-Ho Kang def. Batgerel Danaa
Liang Na def. Silvana Gomez Juarez
Joselyne Edwards def. Ramona Pascual

2022 PDP Record: 145-75-0 (.659)