UFC 277: Punch Drunk Predictions

Pena or Nunes? Moreno or Kara-France? Who will have their hand raised and who will have their heart broken?

UFC 277 has “surprise hit of the summer” vibes to me.

Whether we’re talking the song no one expected to become a certified bop or the movie that unexpected raked in bank at the box office, we see these types of “Where did that come from?” gems pop up all the time, and Saturday’s pay-per-view has that kind of feel to me.

UFC 276 was supposed to be the blockbuster, and for the most part, it was, while this card hasn’t generated as much buzz, as much noise as pay-per-view shows tend to generate. Maybe it’s because this is the third PPV in eight weeks or there are bigger fights and bigger fight cards in general on the horizon, with folks opting to enjoy the summer while they can and get back to the face-punching goodness once the temperatures drop a little.

All that makes sense and I’m totally down with everybody doing what they enjoy the most. All I’m saying is there is something about this card to me that is giving me the “I’ve got a feeling we’re in for something special” sensation, and I can’t wait to see how things play out tomorrow night in Dallas.

And now, onto the picks…

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Julianna Peña vs. Amanda Nunes

Julianna Pena deserves full marks and all the praise in the world for what she accomplished in December. Few people gave her a chance and she marched into the Octagon brimming with confidence, stood her ground, punched Amanda Nunes in the mouth, and made her break, claiming the bantamweight title in the process.

It was the biggest upset in UFC history and a jaw-dropping performance… and now she’s being asked to do it again, and I don’t think she can.

Nunes has spoken about various elements that were misaligned heading into that first meeting — she was still recovering from COVID-19, which scuttled the initial August date; she dealt with a knee injury; there were issues at American Top Team — and, let’s be honest, she probably felt more than capable of beating Pena despite those things because she’d beaten considerably better opposition in the past.

That didn’t happen, she lost her belt, and now she’s out to get it back, and my belief is that she’ll do so in impressive fashion.

Pena won’t make it easy, but a full-strength version of Nunes is the vastly superior athlete and fighter, and if she’s got everything locked in, those big shots that missed in the first round of their initial meeting will find a home, and she’ll make Pena pay for the mistakes she made on the ground in that opening stanza as well.

I think this is going to look similar to the Holly Holm fight — stand in the pocket, take one to land one, big finish before the first round is through.

And new… ish.

Prediction: Amanda Nunes

Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France

My selection of Kara-France has more to do with momentum and rising tides than anything else, as I believe this will be a close, competitive fight throughout and would not be at all surprised to see Moreno claim more flyweight gold. Here’s what I mean about the momentum and rising tides bit:

Kara-France is in the best form of his career right now; he’s on a three-fight winning streak, his skills have clearly progressed, and his overall confidence in his game has never been higher. He is, by all accounts, genuinely in the best form and mindset of his career.

Moreno, on the other hand, is coming off losing the flyweight title back to Deiveson Figueiredo, switching gyms, and fighting a hungry New Zealander instead of finishing his series with the Brazilian titleholder after three straight meetings between the two. There is a lot more in flux with Moreno right now, and I’m curious to see how it impacts him.

Now, Moreno won the first meeting between these two and has more five-round experience than the City Kickboxing man, and a new voice in the gym and between rounds might serve as a spark, but for me, there is something about the confidence Kara-France has been fighting with over these last couple and the disruption that has transpired for Moreno that has me leaning in favour of the Maori hitter this weekend.

Prediction: Kai Kara-France

Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich

Operating with the understanding that Derrick Lewis can finish a fight with one hellacious blow at any time he lands, I think this is going to be Sergei Pavlovich’s coming out party.

Pavlovich has needed a maximum of 21 significant strikes to earn a first-round stoppage win in each of his last three outings, registering a knockdown in each of those efforts. The 30-year-old Russian picked up where he left off following a 29-month absence in March, running through Shamil Abdurakhimov like he was just some dude standing between him and an important meeting he needed to get to in 10 minutes.

This is the kind of guy that has historically given Lewis fits because they’re big enough to stand with him without panicking, but athletic enough to move well and find shots while the lumbering “Black Beast” is rooted in place. We saw it with Tai Tuivasa and Ciryl Gane, as well as less youthful guys like Junior Dos Santos and Shawn Jordan way back when.

I see Pavlovich coming forward, connecting, spilling Lewis to the canvas, and mauling him on the deck.

Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Alex Perez

Normally I would be a little hesitant to back a fighter in their first appearance following a major knee injury, especially when they’re taking on a former title challenger, but Alexandre Pantoja fought more recently than Alex Perez, so I’m siding with the Brazilian.

Pantoja had basically secured himself a title shot with a win over Brandon Royval last August, having already beaten Moreno, who still had the belt at that time, twice — once on The Ultimate Fighter, and once in the UFC. But he suffered a knee injury, Moreno fought Figueiredo again, lost the belt, and now “The Cannibal” is back looking to stake his claim to another championship opportunity.

Perez hasn’t fought since losing to Figueiredo in November 2020, having dealt with opponent withdraws and a couple instances where he missed weight since then. It’s been two years since he won a fight, and between the weight misses and time off, I don’t know that a fist fight with someone as talented as Pantoja is a good idea.

I believe the Brazilian is better everywhere this fight goes — maybe not as an athlete, but in terms of winning the positions and exchanges. He’s a malleable fighter that can do whatever is needed to win fights, whether that means leading or countering, grappling, or just getting into a brawl.

Provided he’s all the back to full health, I believe Pantoja will control things throughout, claim a victory on the cards, and call for a championship opportunity next time out. He won’t get it because there will be a title unification bout to contend with, but he’ll be justified in asking for it nonetheless.

Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja

Anthony Smith vs. Magomed Ankalaev

While I understand Anthony Smith’s suggestion that Magomed Ankalaev doesn’t do all that much — meaning he’s someone that works off clean fundamentals — I also think that it’s pretty weird to say a guy that has won eight straight and methodically out-worked the last three guys he’s faced — two of whom are former title challengers — doesn't do all that much.

And I believe Ankalaev is going to show him exactly what he can do on Saturday.

I like Smith — he’s always entertaining and his development into a Top 10 fixture at light heavyweight is great — but this just feels like one of those fights where the younger, ascending guy with the complete arsenal of polished weapons gets the better of the grittier, grimier veteran. Given how easily Aleksandar Rakic was able to take down and control Smith on the canvas, I anticipate Ankalaev doing the same, only when he gets him there, he’ll work to finish.

At some point, Smith makes a mistake and Ankalaev makes him pay, either with ground-and-pound or a submission finish.

Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev

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Preliminary Card Picks

Matthew Semelsberger def. Alex Morono
Drew Dober def. Rafael Alves
Hamdy Abdelwahab def. Don’Tale Mayes
Drakkar Klose def. Rafa Garcia
Michael Morales def. Adam Fugitt
Ji Yeon Kim def. Joselyne Edwards
Ihor Potieria def. Nicolae Negumereanu
Orion Cosce def. Mike Diamond

2022 PDP Record: 195-109-0, 1 NC (.639)