UFC 278: Punch Drunk Predictions
Who will leave Salt Lake City as the UFC welterweight champion — Kamaru Usman or Leon Edwards?
I love this main event.
I know there are people that aren’t particularly fired up for this one, that don’t see Edwards a real threat to Usman, that don’t like the champion, that just can’t seem to get psyched for Saturday night, but I’m not one of those people, and not just because I’m Spencer and I love every fight.
This one is super-compelling to me as a win for Usman brings him even with Anderson Silva for the most consecutive victories in UFC history, and would give him six successful title defences, leaving him three behind Georges St-Pierre. Additionally, I think this is a “rise to the moment” fight for Edwards, who hasn’t put up highlight reel efforts, but has also been waiting for this fight for three years, and feels like a guy that maybe struggled a little with getting up for his last couple fights, understandably, in my opinion.
Stylistically, I think this can play out a number of ways, and I’m curious to see how these two interact inside the Octagon in terms of their approaches, attitudes, and the push-pull of their attacks and counters. I’ve said repeatedly that I genuinely think this Fight of the Year potential and I stand by that now on the eve of everything going down.
So who I think will emerge victorious?
Let’s find out…
* * * * *
Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards
I think there are ways for Edwards to win this fight and I will not be surprised if he does; I genuinely think people don’t recognize how talented he is and how successful he’s been because they wanted to see him face Khamzat Chimaev and love Nate Diaz landing one clean shot on him in their fight. He needs to be aggressive and dictate the terms of engagement as best as possible in order to pull it off, but he’s capable.
That being said, I think the champion retains.
My Next Day Takeaways co-host Harry Powell made some excellent points on his terrific One Man Booth episode about this fight about how Usman just has more ways to get this done versus Edwards needing to be near-perfect, and I just can’t overlook that truth of that in making my selection. Even with Edwards having clearly improved since their first encounter, Usman has improved more, moving from being a basic striker to someone that doesn’t even necessarily need to rely on his wrestling any more.
I also think the championship experience, pay-per-view experience all plays a factor here as well, as this is Edwards’ first time in the real spotlight, and that can mess with you a little, especially as we get deeper into the fight and Usman just keeps coming forward.
If Edwards had a little more proven, established power in his hands, I’d like his chances a little more, but as it stands, I think Usman turns a fight that is close early into a clear victory the longer it goes.
Prediction: Kamaru Usman
Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold
This is one of those fights where there is a smart choice and an “I could see it happening” choice, and the wise play is to side with the former and not the latter.
It’s not so much that I see Costa being some dominant force that Rockhold can’t beat, it’s just that I can’t think of any other 37-year-old guys that came back off following a three-year hiatus and knockout losses in three of his last four fights before said sabbatical to blow through even a flawed Top 10 fighter, especially not one with the power to crack that chin one more time.
As I’ve said throughout the week: Apex Luke Rockhold trounces Apex Paulo Costa, but it’s not that version of Luke Rockhold stepping into the Octagon on Saturday.
Maybe he really has figured everything out for himself, healed his body, and found his love of the sport again, and he comes out and runs through Costa — I would genuinely be happy for him if that’s how this plays out — but I need to see it before I can believe that it’s real. Costa has flaws and Rockhold has the ability to exploit them, but I just don’t see him getting there without getting cracked, and I don’t know if any amount of time away and focus on wellness can remedy having a glass jaw.
Prediction: Paulo Costa
Jose Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili
It’s honestly insane to me that Aldo is the underdog in this fight while entering on a three-fight winning streak against better fighters than Dvalishvili has beaten during the course of his current seven-fight run of success. I get that people will want to do the whole MMA Math thing of “Well Aldo lost to Moraes and Merab knocked him out,” but that is terribly flawed and I’m happy to take all the plus-money you can give me on Aldo… but I’ll save those thoughts for another post.
Stylistically, I just struggle to see how Dvalishvili gets it done. He’s so reliant on the takedown, but Aldo is one of the absolute best in MMA history at avoiding being taken down, and on the feet, it’s not even close. Aldo looked so good in his wins over Pedro Munhoz and Rob Font that it’s difficult for me to see Dvalishvili doing enough to disrupt the Brazilian’s flow on the feet or be able to keep him on the canvas for prolonged stretches if he does take him down.
This feels like a matchup tailor-made to Aldo’s strengths, and I think he extends his winning streak on Saturday.
War Aldo!
Prediction: Jose Aldo
Wu Yanan vs. Lucie Pudilova
As I mentioned on One Question, I’m not exactly blown away by the competition that Pudilova has beaten on her way to a 5-1 record following her first stint in the Octagon, but I also don’t think she needs to be too much better than she was during that initial tour of duty to get the victory over Wu here.
She’ll have a little bit of a reach advantage, has won two straight, and should be the more polished, more athletic, grimier of the two on Saturday night, and I think all of those things, combined with Wu having the pressure of a three-fight slide hanging over her head, will result in Pudilova getting a victory in her UC return.
Prediction: Lucie Pudilova
Tyson Pedro vs. Harry Hunsucker
Yes, this looks like an absolute squash match on paper and will most likely play out that way inside the Octagon.
As the guy that regularly advocates for the UFC doing away with the whole “we’ll give everybody three fights” thing in favor of more of an “NBA 10-day contract” idea or, you know, just cutting people that clearly don’t belong, I don’t really like seeing this kind of booking.
At the same time, I’m not opposed to making sure Pedro, who returned for the first time in 40 months in April, can get through two camps and two fights healthy before throwing him in there with tougher competition.
Plus, I kind of like the fact that Hunsucker will be able to put the picture below on his wall and tell people, “There are the three dudes that kicked my ass in the UFC” after Saturday night:
Prediction: Tyson Pedro
* * * * *
Preliminary Card Picks
Alexandr Romanov def. Marcin Tybura
Jared Gordon def. Leonardo Santos
Sean Woodson def. Luis Saldana
AJ Fletcher def. Ange Loosa
Amir Albazi def. Francisco Figueiredo
Aoriqileng def. Jay Perrin
Daniel Da Silva def. Victor Altamirano
2022 PDP Record: 219-120-1, 1 NC (.642)