UFC 290 Rewatch & Analysis: Moreno vs. Pantoja
Going through the final three rounds of Saturday's incredible co-main event, offering thought and insights about its scoring and the way we talk about judges and close fights
Let me start here: this was an amazing fight and it stinks that the main conversation around this instant classic is a controversial decision that, if I’m being quite honest, wasn’t all that controversial, though I certainly get it, hence my being here.
Before getting into the minute-by-minute recounting of this fight, I think we all agree that Alexandre Pantoja won the opening round and that Brandon Moreno took the second; the judges all agreed on those facts, and I haven’t seen anyone argue otherwise over the 36 hours since these two flyweight standouts left every ounce of themselves inside the Octagon.
As always, I’ll be doing this rewatch with the sound off, because (1) judges don’t have the commentary track playing in their ears when they’re watching the fights, and (2) commentary absolutely influences the way people interpret the action. It’s not necessarily a conscious thing, but when Joe Rogan and Daniel Cormier buzz about a shot landing, it’s going to cause you to focus in on that shot, and perhaps miss some of the other stuff taking place in those same moments.
Okay, time to rewatch the final three rounds and then talk about this stuff.
Pantoja has won the first, Moreno has won the second, and both guys are a little busted up and leaking, but not anything serious. The momentum feels like it’s on the side of the champion, but the challenger is certainly still game and very much in this fight.
The three judges for this fight were Ben Cartlidge, Derek Cleary, and Junichiro Kamijo
Round 3
5:00-4:00: jab for Moreno lands straight away and Pantoja over-swings, resulting in a click opportunity, that he shakes out of well, grabbing a Thai clinch and looking to land a knee, which lands low to pause the action. Moreno doesn’t want to give him too long to rest and we’re back at it quickly. Jab for Pantoja and a lead elbow for Moreno, which lands flush. He throws it again and connects again as Pantoja looks to land and pressure, and the Brazilian comes forward behind two left hooks that don’t find the target. Pantoja gets to a back waist lock and the blood from his face paints Moreno’s back, which tells you those elbows did damage.
Moreno breaks the grip momentarily, but Pantoja stays tight, spilling him to the canvas and landing in what I’ll call three-quarter back mount, as Moreno isn’t centered on his chest. The body triangle goes on and the hand fighting begins.
4:00-3:00: Pantoja tries to find openings to attack, but Moreno is defending well, stripping the hands, shifting his hips as needed. Pantoja finally throws a punch and looks to climb to mount, which Moreno uses to reverse the position. He immediately punches Pantoja in the face and looks to posture up, escape.
3:00-2:00: Moreno stands and walks to the center, Pantoja gets to his feet and wipes the blood off his face as they reset. Two jabs and a left hook for Moreno. Another jab, and a short left hook as Pantoja lands a left hook in return. Uppercut from Pantoja looks mostly taken on the forearms, jab gets through, and Moreno counters with a combination closed with a high kick that connects. Moreno throws himself off balance, but Pantoja can't capitalize because he’s covering up. Jab for Moreno is true. Little inside low kick for Moreno. Jab for each man.
2:00-1:00: Pantoja throws a front kick up the middle that hits the forearms. Another combination from Moreno — jab, left hook, right cross, high kick — with the jab, cross, and kick all touching the challenger. Good hard jab from Moreno sits Pantoja down for a split second. Another jab for Moreno as Pantoja misses, but rushes forward looking to grapple, backing Moreno into the fence. Moreno does well to dig underhooks and elevate Pantoja, turning him off and into space.
The challenger comes forward with a flurry — hooks to the body that register, but aren’t snappy before looking to go to the head with uppercuts that don’t get home. Another entry drives Moreno into the fence, with Pantoja getting his hands connected around the waist and twisting Moreno to the canvas, landing in his guard. Moreno immediately starts pushing on his shoulders, trying to wriggle free, lands an elbow to the top of the head, and pushes Pantoja back far enough to where he goes to an omoplata to create further space and separation, which forces the challenger to stand and re-enter.
Pantoja comes down in side control, but in lunging forward with a punch, Moreno rolls at the right time and reverses the position. Upkick lands for Pantoja and Moreno retreats into his guard, if that makes sense.
1:00-0:00: Left hand and an elbow from Pantoja. Another elbow. Right hand from Moreno. Another right, and another elbow from the bottom. Moreno climbs into half guard, postured, and lands punches as Pantoja grabs hold of him and looks to push on his hips with his feet. Moreno stands and Pantoja gets to his feet with 37 seconds left in the round.
Jab and uppercut into the guard for Pantoja. Jabas land for each man. Again. Left hook and right outside thigh kick for Pantoja. Lead left hook for Moreno taken on the gloves. HORN!
Official Scorecard: 10-9 Moreno, 9-10 Pantoja, 9-10 Pantoja
Spencer’s Scorecard: 10-9 Moreno
Analysis: I don’t know how you score that round for Pantoja, honestly. I mean, I can see roads to doing so, but it feels like a stretch for me.
Moreno busts him up with the lead elbows early in the round, and landed the better strikes throughout. Pantoja gets to the back in the opening minute and remains there for most of the second minute, but he’s never remotely close to threatening with a choke and doesn’t land many shots. When he gets Moreno down later in the frame, he again doesn’t get anywhere threatening or land any blows.
The majority of the round was contested on the feet and Moreno won those interactions, including the elbows that bust up the challenger and the jab that buckles Pantoja for a brief second.
Round 4
5:00-4:00: Two jabs for Moreno. Left hook for Pantoja. Counter left hook, long jab for Moreno. Jab for Pantoja, left hook for Moreno in a flurry that checks the chin. Pantoja returns the favour at the end of the exchange. Left hook to the body for Moreno. Both firing in close, looking a little laboured, nothing really lands. They trade jabs. Moreno lands two-to-one on a jab trade, and lands the lead hook as Pantoja comes forward. Outside kick for Pantoja. Uppercut for the challenger as they tie up a little and both look to land in tight.
4:00-3:00: Knee and a left hand for Pantoja. Right hand for Moreno, who is wearing it a little more now, his lips swelling noticeably. Trading jabs. Moreno ducks under a left hook, digs to the body and smashes home and elbow, Pantoja shooting for a double and spilling him to the canvas. Moreno instantly on his hip, gets his shoulders to the canvas, and accepts the challenger being in side control. Pantoja looks to climb to half guard, Moreno elevates him with a butterfly and gets on his left hip, scrambling under the Brazilian and back to his feet.
Pantoja right on his hips immediately, stands to a waist lock, trying to drag Moreno down. The champion fights the hands and looks to spin free, but Pantoja stays sticky. It’s beautiful stuff, but nothing of substance is happening either.
3:00-2:00: Pantoja sits down and pulls Moreno back into him, climbing into half guard at an awkward angle. Moreno grabs his right leg, forcing Pantoja to re-adjust into side control on the left side, shoulders at Moreno’s hips. The champion is pushing the challenger away and again looks to scramble under Pantoja as he clears some space, with the Brazilian ending up with Moreno on his knees, his head between Pantoja’s legs, and the challenger holding is tight palm-to-palm grip between Moreno’s legs.
Moreno starts to work to his feet, Pantoja floats on his back and climbs into back mount as he stands.
2:00-1:00: Pantoja slides off Moreno’s back, but keeps hold of him along the fence. Back elbow from Moreno. Pantoja just hanging out with a waist lock, Moreno trying to strip the grips. Pantoja tries to buck Moreno and fishes his right hook in.
1:00-0:00: Pantoja again sits down and drags Moreno with him, landing in three-quarter mount, but ending in half-guard, chest-to-chest, hunting for an arm triangle choke. Moreno rolls and lands in top position in Pantoja’s guard. Moreno stands and looks to land as he wades back in, but nothing registers. Pantoja kicks him off and they stand with 17 second remaining in the round. Jabs for each, but Moreno is far quicker to build on it, landing another jab that backs up Pantoja, who is a little off balance along the wall. Left for Pantoja, one for Moreno in return.
Moreno defends the single leg attempt, turns Pantoja off him, smashes an elbow into his face and the horn sounds.
Official Scorecard: 10-9 Moreno, 10-9 Moreno, 10-9 Moreno
Spencer’s Scorecard: 10-9 Moreno
Analysis: Pretty clear round where it was decided by the limited moments of striking, which Moreno got the better of more often than naught. His speed edge, conditioning edge served him well here, as there were spots where they landed at the same time, but then the champ was able to get to the next shot first, as Pantoja needed to load up on his punches more, and that’s where Moreno really did good work.
The lead elbow just before the bell was sharp too.
It’s worth noting that at this point, Moreno is ahead 39-37 on one card and we’re deadlocked on at 38-38 on the other two, which again shows how close and competitive this fight was, and the round that had Moreno ahead, Round 3, feels very much like a Moreno round. It did to me in the moment and was very much that upon review.
Round 5
5:00-4:00: Nothing happens in the first 42 seconds; literally nothing. Pantoja stays on the outside, circling, and Moreno follows him, trying to cut him off and get into range, but neither man offers any kind of offensive movement.
Moreno paws out a jab and a right hand to see the range, jab for Pantoja grazes the head. Left hook for Moreno. Tandem jabs. Left hand in tight for Pantoja. Tandem jabs and another for Moreno as he looks to push forward.
4:00-3:00: Jab, jab, uppercut combo for Pantoja connects. Jab for Pantoja. Left hand for Pantoja, answered by Moreno, twice, and it off-balances Pantoja a little, prompting him to cover up. A third pushes the challenger across the Octagon and they reset. Jabs for each. An extra one for Moreno. Left hand for Pantoja. Glancing left for Pantoja, sharp jab for Moreno. Again. Again. Now a left after the jab misses.
3:00-2:00: Good double-tap jab from Pantoja. Jabs for each, digging left hook to the body for Moreno, right hand for Pantoja behind it. Jabs for each, left for Pantoja, and one from Moreno that snaps back the challenger’s head. Step-in jab is flush for Moreno. Pantoja digs to the body with the left and Moreno checks his chin with one of his own, the challenger pushing forward behind the blow he landed, but unable to follow-up as Moreno circles out.
Halfway home.
Jab for Moreno and a left hand as Pantoja looks to get his hands on the champion. Left hook lands for Moreno, followed by an elbow over the top of the arms for Moreno gets Pantoja off him, followed by another stiff jab that prompts Pantoja to change levels and race forward, driving Moreno into the fence and down to the ground. Pantoja is in half guard, hands connected around the waist as Moreno sits against the fence. Pantoja strips the post hand and gets Moreno’s back to the canvas, climbing to side control at the same time.
2:00-1:00: Moreno tries to re-guard and create space, but Pantoja uses it to get to his waist and around to the back as Moreno tries to stand, climbing onto his back with 1:52 remaining, the body triangle engaged. Moreno is fighting the hands, Pantoja lands a couple short lefts, trying to force a mistake from the champion.
1:00-0:00: Pantoja gets to a bit of a face crank, neck crank, but nothing really doing as Moreno fights the hands well. They stay in this position through to the horn.
Official Scorecard: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno), 9-10 Pantoja (48-47 Pantoja), 9-10 Pantoja (48-47 Pantoja)
Spencer’s Scorecard: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
Analysis: Through the midway point of the round, I had Moreno ahead, not by a lot, but ahead, having landed the better strikes in a round that was, to that point, contested exclusively on the feet. Pantoja landed some good shots of his own, surely, but Moreno was a little more active, a little more effective from my perspective.
It all comes down to how you look at those final two minutes, where Pantoja was backpacking Moreno, and for me, I go back to what we’ve been talking about ever since the fight between Ketlen Vieira and Holly Holm — what do you deem effective grappling and how does it measure up compared to damage?
Was Pantoja effective in controlling Moreno for those final two minutes? Yes. Was the champion ever in any real danger of being submitted or did Pantoja land a considerable amount of shots from that position? No. Does being in that position, closing out the round on Moreno’s back carrying him all the way back beyond the slight edge Moreno had built in the opening three minutes? This is where everyone’s mileage will vary.
For me, it does not because nothing much really happens. It’s certainly a much better position than being on top in half guard or full guard and just grinding out the round from there, but Pantoja wasn’t close with anything. He had a look at a neck crank for four or five seconds, but it wasn’t there, and while the body triangle is uncomfortable and restrictive, it’s not doing any immediate damage to Moreno.
Overall Thoughts
I said this Saturday night after the event and will say it again now: it’s WILD to me how we can spend 25-30 minutes talking about how a fight is freakishly close and difficult to score, and then turn around and say, “There is absolutely no way you can possibly score that fight that way” when someone scores the fight contrary to popular opinion.
It’s completely ridiculous, and yet it happens all the time.
I also think it’s a really bad look for the analysts to be on the broadcast and post-fight show suggesting the dissenting judge, in this case Ben Cartlidge, should be removed from his position, and I think that for a bunch of reasons:
Cartlidge is one of the best judges in the business, and even if you strongly disagree with his score, one score doesn’t change, and by no means is grounds for dismissal.
It’s just a terrible look in general because it sends an incorrect message to everyone watching / listening at home that these men and women do not know what they’re doing, and that largely isn’t the case with the collection of established, traveling judges that we see on a regular basis. Do they have the odd questionable scorecard? Yes. Are they awful at their jobs? No.
Every single week, those same analysts spout incorrect information about how fights are scored, plus make other mistakes related to their roles over the course of the broadcast, so maybe just chill, Winston; pots and kettles, stones and glass houses and all that good stuff. Like Daniel Cormier went on a two-minute tangent about a fighter whose name he couldn’t remember coming into the UFC at the same time as Alexander Volkanovski in the middle of a goddamn title fight, and he’s out here suggesting there is no way in hell Cartlidge’s scorecard is even remotely possible?
This was a tremendously close fight that quite literally came down to how you scored the final two minutes of the contest — whether you felt the grappling from Pantoja was enough to edge him ahead of Moreno.
I felt like Moreno won the fight while watching on Saturday — Rounds 2 and 4 were definite (all the judges agreed there) and I felt like he’d done enough in Round 3 as well, with the fifth being an incredibly close frame. But I was also writing the recaps and had Tweetdeck open and my focus wasn’t on judging the fight, per se, which is why I wanted to go through this exercise.
I don’t come into these things looking to confirm my position or trying desperately to make the case for my score — check out my re-watch of Sterling-Yan II if you don’t believe me. It’s also worth noting here that Round 2 of that fight saw Sterling take Yan’s back for four minutes and only come away with 10-9 scores across the board (officially), which speaks to the challenge of awarding Pantoja the fifth as a result of running a little behind Moreno in the striking and then having two minutes in back mount to close things out.
Sterling flattened Yan out in the fourth minute of that round and landed more blows, heavier blows in that space than Pantoja did during his final two minutes, and while every fight, every round is absolutely scored individually, I think that every one of us that aren’t actual judges, but want to weigh in on these things should keep stuff like this in mind when digging in our heels for these subjective, debated decisions.
What’s also funny / ironic / annoying to me is that there has been zero scrutiny of the third round scores for Pantoja, and it feels like that’s in part because (a) two officials agreed so it must be right, and (b) those two officials scored the fight “correctly,” so why go back and look at it?
But here’s the thing: Cartlidge’s 10-9 for Moreno in that round feels, looks like the correct score to me — it did in the moment and does even more so after watching it back — and if those Pantoja rounds are instead scored for Moreno — which feels like the more correct score — we’re 3-1 Moreno heading into the fifth on all three scorecards and the scoring in the final round is irrelevant.
We don’t get there though because the majority of people feel like the right guy won, and when your opinions or positions are validated, rarely do you want to go through and re-examine them, just to be sure. It’s the same reason I haven’t seen many “D’you know what?” threads or posts from folks that watched it back and had a change of opinion: it’s difficult to do because no one likes to admit they made a mistake, even though these aren’t even mistakes, really — they’re opinions on a five-minute fight that was frenetic and close.
And that’s without factoring in any biases, gambling or prediction-based ties to the outcome, or things like that either.
The idea that you cannot score the final round for Moreno is incorrect to me.
It doesn’t ignore the effective grappling of Pantoja — it weighs it against the striking exchanges that took place throughout the first half of the round, which, in my opinion, were won by Moreno. Suggesting otherwise feels — again, in my opinion — like a push to confirm ones own scoring of the round and a refusal to re-examine things because it might force you to reconsider.
I don’t have a dog in this hunt — I just love fights, relish the chance to go minute-by-minute through a close, competitive bout like this, and share my thoughts on how I scored thing and why.
You wanna tell me Pantoja won that fight, I’m not going to tell you that you’re wrong — it was a tremendously close fight.
I would just ask that you afford me, Ben Cartlidge, and anyone else that had the fight in favour of Moreno that same grace when it comes to how we saw things on Saturday night.