UFC Austin: One Question for Every Fight
Someone had to follow Vince Carter in the 2000 NBA All-Star Weekend Slam Dunk Contest.
Carter walks out, hits his first dunk, posts his first 50, makes it clear that he’s going to win the whole damn thing, and some poor soul is standing there like, “I gotta follow that?!” There could have been half-a-dozen other electrifying dunks in that competition, but it wouldn’t have mattered — Carter won the competition on his first dunk, and was the only person anyone was going to be talking about coming away from that event.
Note: I know I could go back and watch to see who followed Carter, but that’s not really the point is it? Besides, I like to think it was Ricky Davis, and Davis was standing there like, “Aight, bet. I see you, VC. Now watch this!” and then went out there and did Ricky Davis things; that’s way more enjoyable than knowing the actual answer… unless that’s the actual answer.
Anyway…
This weekend’s fight card in Austin, Texas makes me think of that because for as great a card as it is — and it’s an excellent collection of fights capped by a terrific main event — it’s following an absolute monster show last weekend in Singapore that has continued to dominate the headlines and discussions well into the week.
It’s not a knock on Saturday’s fight card at the brand new Moody Center on the campus of the University of Texas at Austin (Hook’em Horns!); it’s just how these things work some times when something truly magical happens.
Last weekend was special, but this weekend should be a tremendous amount of fun too, and I have a lot of questions I’m hoping to get answered this weekend.
* * * * *
Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett
Q: Can Emmett clear that final hurdle?
So when I talked to Emmett ahead of this fight for the feature story captured in the tweet below, we started by talking about how he was in this same position four years ago: riding a nice winning streak, brink of title contention, main event, facing a tough out.
That fight, against Jeremy Stephens, didn’t go well for him — he was knocked out in the second round, caught a couple hellacious forearm shivers to the face while he was already knocked out that busted him up pretty bad — and he’s been working his way back to this position ever since… and now he’s here again.


Emmett is one of those fighters that I find hard to break down and sort out because he’s got one exceptional weapon (power) and doesn’t do much other than look to score with said weapon, but he does a good job of moving in the cage, has some wrestling in his back pocket if he ever needs it, and, save for that fight with Stephens, isn’t someone that gets beaten up and taken out, even if he is kind of a one-note fighter. And I don’t say that dismissively — for a dude that is largely just hunting bombs, he’s done exceptionally well for himself; I just don’t know if you can get by someone like Kattar or anyone else in the upper tier of the featherweight division without a little more diversity in your arsenal.
I’m the chief advocate for their being absolutely nothing wrong with being the seventh or 12th or 18th best fighter in a given division for an extended period of time — countless others would kill to trade places with you, even if the masses far too often dismiss your accomplishments and achievements — and right now, I think that might be Emmett’s fate.
Saturday is a chance to change that and prove me wrong.
Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon
Q: Is this Cowboy’s last rodeo?
Cerrone has always said he’s going to ride this thing until the wheels fall off, but entering this weekend’s re-scheduled clash with Joe Lauzon mired in a six-fight run without a victory, I think it’s safe to say that if the wheels haven’t actually fallen off yet, they’re awful wobbly right about now.
None of us that cover the sport or watch the sport can really understand or comprehend how difficult it is to call it quits; to look yourself in the mirror and admit that you just can’t do it any more, not the way you used to and not the way you want to either. Some people reach that acceptance easier than others, and we’ve all known for some time that Cowboy wasn’t going to be one of those cats that arrived at that point without maybe holding on for one or two too many.
He’s just not built that way, and that’s why this is a question and not just a statement of fact. We haven’t heard Cerrone say this will be his final fight because I think he either doesn’t know or doesn’t want to admit it until Saturday comes and goes, for good or for bad, not that I think the outcome will likely hold much sway on his decision. With two growing boys and all kinds of outside of the cage pursuits, there isn’t much reason for the 39-year-old veteran to keep making the walk to the Octagon, but I’m not sure Cerrone is ever going to be someone that needs more of a reason beyond “because I still want to do it.”
If I had to guess, I’d say he calls it quits, win or lose this weekend, but then again, I thought he’d ride off into the sunset following the Alex Morono loss last year.
Tim Means vs. Kevin Holland
Q: Are folks getting sucked back into another Kevin Holland trap?
Those that have been reading this here newsletter from the jump know where I’m going with this. Thanks, by the way; I really appreciate y’all. For those that don’t, allow me to explain:
I thought people made far too much of Holland’s five-fight winning streak in 2020, because I had watched his middling efforts in previous years, and when he struggled in higher profile pairings against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori before his No Contest with Kyle Daukaus, I wrote about him as a conundrum; Part I and Part II.
Now he’s down at welterweight, coming off a good win over Alex Oliveira and slated to face Means, and I have this sneaky feeling like people are about to get sucked into another “Kevin Holland can be a contender” trap because they’re still enthralled with his in-fight trash talk and paying too much attention to a handful of positive results.
Holland’s issue isn’t wrestlers that can hold him down — it’s that he makes poor decisions, fights off balance, and, in my opinion, lacks the work ethic and focus to truly maximize his obvious talents and skills. He feels like he’s more interested in being famous than being exceptional at his craft.
That’s his choice and a perfectly acceptable decision; I’m just trying to warn people now because he strikes me as someone that is always going to buckle when things get tough somewhere down the line. I genuinely hope he proves me wrong because I think he has an abundance of talent, but I won’t be holding my breath.
Joaquin Buckley vs. Albert Duraev
Q: How good are these guys?
Again, this isn’t me being a dick — I genuinely want to get a better read on how good these guys are because heading into their meeting on Saturday night, I’m really not sure.
Buckley is 4-2 in the UFC, including his short-notice debut loss, that monster knockout of Impa Kasanganay, and an absolute turd of a fight against Abdul Razak Alhassan last time out. He’s got a wealth of power, but a low output approach, and every time I get thinking he might go on a little run and make some noise, he either full on stumbles (see the Alessio Di Chirico fight) or trips enough that I re-think things, as he did in his last outing.
Duraev is on a 10-fight winning streak, but only two of those have come after 2018 — his DWCS win over Caio Bittencourt and his tougher-than-expected debut win over Roman Kopylov at UFC 267 last October in Abu Dhabi. The 33-year-old looks great on paper, but lots of people look great on paper, and after struggling with Kopylov, who is another “looked promising until you pulled back the layers” guy, it’s impossible to know what to expect from him here or long term.
While I don’t think this fight is going to give a conclusive answer to this question, it should help progress things in one direction or another, giving everyone a better understanding of where these guys stand in the middleweight division and what to reasonably expect from them in the future.
Damir Ismagulov vs. Guram Kutateladze
Q: Is the winner the next name to track at lightweight?
In order to avoid another round of “I Don’t Know These Guys, Therefore They Can’t Be Good,” allow me to introduce you to the men competing in Saturday’s other lightweight main card matchup.
Ismagulov is 31 years old and riding a 15-fight winning streak, with the last four of those wins coming in the UFC. He defeated both Thiago Moises and Joel Alvarez — the former headlined opposite Islam Makhachev last year, the latter lost to Armen Tsarukyan last time out — and as I say time and again, if winning 15 consecutive fights were easy, more people would do it. Now, he missed weight by a country mile for a fight with Magomed Mustafaev in October that was ultimately scrapped, so that’s a concern, but talent-wise, skill-wise, he’s quite good.
Kutateladze turned 30 at the start of the year and is making his second UFC start. He’s 12-2 overall and riding a nine-fight winning streak, including a split decision win over Mateusz Gamrot in their joint promotional debuts. Long and tall for the division, Kutateladze carries a Khamzat Chimaev co-sign and has spent time training with the other emerging Georgians in the UFC like Merab Dvalishvili and Ilia Topuria (and his brother, Aleksandre, whose name you should remember), plus he beat Gamrot in their joint debuts!
Okay, it was a split decision and a debated one at that, but at the very least, he gave a guy on the brink of the Top 10 a competitive fight, and has a solid pedigree, which means you should probably be paying attention to him this weekend.
Lightweight is loaded with talent and there are a few addition names that make the short list of “next names to watch,” but the winner of this one will definitely need to be included, and might deserve the top spot on said list.
Julian Marquez vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Q: Can Marquez become a guy a middleweight?
Through the first four months of last year, Marquez was the Comeback Fighter of the Year and guaranteed of at least an Honourable Mention in the Fighter of the Year column after registering a pair of come-from-behind submission victories over Maki Pitolo and Sam Alvey following more than two years on the sidelines.
He hasn’t fought since…
There are obvious positive elements that Marquez brings to the table — he’s rugged, has some pop, is an opportunistic finisher, trains with a good crew — but the dude can’t stay healthy or active and it makes it impossible for him to build any real momentum. Those two victories before the end of April felt like the start of a little something, but now they’re more than a year old and he’s returning against “Robocop,” who is coming off a split decision loss.
Middleweight is always wide open for someone to come along, win a few fights, and make an expedient ascent into the Top 15. Could Marquez do it? The skills seem to be there, but staying healthy and staying active are key components, and it remains to be seen if he can fight more than a couple times a year without being forced to the sidelines for an extended period of time.
Note: he also completely shit the bed with that Miley Cyrus call out situation… SMDH. Shouts to Miley!
Adrian Yanez vs. Tony Kelley
Q: Where does Yanez fit in the bantamweight collective?
So bantamweight is the most competitive division from top to bottom in the UFC and Yanez is one of the top emerging talents in said division, but he’s also in a weird spot heading into this weekend.
The DWCS grad (Class of ‘20) has won all four of his UFC appearances and is coming off a victory over Davey Grant in a bout that won Fight of the Night, and yet he’s taking on Tony Kelley on the prelims for reasons that are completely unclear to me. Grant is the mid-level boss at ‘35 and Yanez beat him, and now it’s like he’s gone back to kick the hell out of the easy-to-beat boss at the end of Level 2… I don’t get it.
Maybe this is a way to pump the brakes on him just a little because there are so many emerging names pushing forward at the moment, but I genuinely hope — for Yanez and for us — that he moves back to the “ahead of Grant” position in the division with another victory this weekend because I really want to try and get a better sense of where he fits now and may find himself situated later this year.
I currently project him as a future Top 15 fighter in the Pedro Munhoz style, but like with everyone, I need to see him in there with increasingly experienced, skill opponents in order to keep refining this projection, and Tony Kelley just doesn’t fit that bill.
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Natalia Silva
Q: What will Jasudavicius do for an encore?
In her promotional debut earlier this year, Jasudavicius scored a unanimous decision win over Kay Hansen to push her winning streak to three and her record to 7-1 overall. It was a strong effort that showcased the Canadian’s superiority in the clinch, which was partially dictated by Hansen being a natural strawweight, but also gave a glimpse into the upside the DWCS grad possesses as she continues to garner experience and build on her foundational skills.
Which is why I’m interested in her fight with Silva this weekend.
The Brazilian has more experience in terms of overall fights, but Jasudavicius has been in there with superior competition, and will once again have a size advantage over the UFC newcomer. She talked about wanting to get the first one out of the way — get a win, get settled in, and build from there — and I anticipate more aggressiveness in favourable positions this time around.
She’s a good athlete from a good team with a frame and baseline skills that make her an intriguing addition to the flyweight ranks, and I’m curious to see how things progress from here.
Court McGee vs. Jeremiah Wells
Q: Is Wells a dark horse in the welterweight division?
It feels to me like Wells’ two wins in the UFC are getting the “… yeah, but” treatment, leading to him being positioned as an underdog heading into this weekend’s clash with McGee, which is kind of confusing to me.
Last June, he knocked out Warlley Alves on short notice, and then earlier this year, he choked out Blood Diamond in a the first round of a fight he dominated from the outset. Now, if you want to say Blood Diamond isn’t ready to compete at this level, I’m not going to argue with you, but Wells still got him out of there inside of one and gave him no chance to have any offence, which is key to note. He also clocked Alves with a right hook that is entirely replicable and showed the clear and obvious power he carries in his hands.
He trains with a group that has done exceptionally well in the UFC as of late — that Daniel Gracie Philly crew that includes Sean Brady and Pat Sabatini — and I just wonder if folks are leaning too hard into finding ways to explain away his success instead of recognizing that Wells has done exactly what we want fighters to do in each of his two UFC appearances.
McGee is a grimy, experienced veteran that will not go away easy, so this should be a good indicator of whether Wells is someone to keep closer tabs on in the welterweight division or not; I just feel like he might be and tend to prefer being out in front of these things rather than playing catch-up.
Ricardo Ramos vs. Danny Chavez
Q: Will Ramos ever become the best version of himself?
Let me start by acknowledging that Ramos is still only 26 years old — he turns 27 on August 1 — and so it might be premature to suggest that he’s topped out… but it kind of feels like he’s topped out, right?
Ramos began his UFC tenure with three straight wins, including an hellacious spinning elbow knockout of Aiemann Zahabi at Madison Square Garden. The victories pushed his record to 12-1, and even after he lost to Said Nurmagomedov, the Brazilian prospect rallied to earn two more victories, including a first-round finish in his featherweight debut against Luiz Eduardo Garagorri. Since then, Ramos is 1-2, sticking a win over veteran Bill Algeo between a first-round stoppage loss to Lerone Murphy and a unanimous decision defeat opposite Zubaira Tukhugov last time out at UFC 267.
Those losses aren’t terrible losses by any stretch — Murphy is a very talented fighter with an 11-0-1 record and three straight UFC victories, while Tukhugov has long been a “this guy could be something” guy that struggled to find consistency — but they also feed into the pattern of Ramos coming up short against the best competition he’s faced. His skills haven’t quite developed the way I would have anticipated following those early successes, and there are, in my opinion, too many instances where he wants to do something fancy and cute rather than simple, yet effective and it’s stuff like that which leads me to question if he’ll ever elevate his game beyond this point.
I like Ramos’ tools — decent size, good reach, legit black belt, a little pop — but he feels like someone that has stalled out at being this good when there appear to be additional levels he can reach. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe this was the ceiling all along and getting here is a win overall; I just can’t shake the feeling that he’s one of those guys that could have been even better, but never quite committed himself to reaching that level for one reason or another.
Maria Oliveira vs. Gloria de Paula
Q: How is this not the opener?
This is more a question of the way the UFC is booking cards these days, rather than being dismissive of these two women.
After last weekend’s pay-per-view event in Singapore felt like it progressed beautifully in terms of the skill level and significance of the fights from the start of the night to the light heavyweight championship climax, now we get this meeting of marginal strawweights wedged in front of a pair of bantamweight veterans and two middleweight contests that are bound to have greater divisional significance going forward, all just a few weeks after Erin Blanchfield and JJ Aldrich opened a show.
What gives?
If you want to tell me the UFC is trying to get more people to tune in earlier in the card and that’s why there are “better” fights further down the call sheet, I’ll listen. If you want to tell me the promotion is trying to send a message to those fighters in the opening bouts that they want to see more from them in order for them to ascend the fight listings, I’ll take that point too.
But this is a bout between two women that are a combined 1-3 in the UFC, and that one win is a questionable decision. Oliveira literally ran away from Marina Rodriguez during their Contender Series clash a few summers ago, which, I get, because Rodriguez is a beast, but she’s shown nothing to merit competing at this level, yet alone being ahead of more accomplished fighters on Saturday night.
And it’s not like de Paula is some rising star either. She lost her first two fights after earning a contract with a win on DWCS, and eked out a victory over Diana Belbita last time out in a fight that I still think Belbita won. I could understand if this was like the Karine Silva-Poliana Botelho fight where is was obvious the UFC was looking to get Silva some shine, but this feels more the bout order was just haphazardly thrown together and this one landed here.
I know I’m the guy that says bout order doesn’t matter, but that’s only when it comes to fans and media discussing the athletes and their skills. Bout order still clearly matters to fans who see each and every fight card as a hierarchy of how important each fight and those competitors are, and stuff like this leads to more promising talents being viewed as less important to pay attention to going forward.
Eddie Wineland vs. Cody Stamann
Q: What will Stamann’s next chapter look like?
Stamann enters Saturday’s bout with Wineland on a three-fight slide, which resulted in his falling out of the Top 15 in the bantamweight division for the first time in some time. At 32 years old, it feels like this is a critical fight for the Michigan native and Xtreme Couture representative, and a chance to start dictating what the next chapter of his UFC career will look like.
None of those losses were bad losses — he lost to quality competition, and while he got submitted quickly last time out, these things happen from time-to-time and shouldn’t be, in my opinion, an indictment on Stamann’s skills or some big sign that he’s in a free-fall; he just made a mistake and paid for it. A win over Wineland this weekend feels like it would be a steadying result that sets a new floor for Stamann, who was 19-2-1 overall before his current slide and is still 5-4-1 in the UFC while facing pretty solid competition overall.
Provided he wins this weekend, it will be interesting to see which path Stamann looks to take forward, as I think he can settle in nicely to a “mid-pack litmus test” role comparable to what Andrei Arlovski and Jim Miller have done in their respective divisions, but accepting that as your station is a difficult thing to do, especially when you feel you’re still capable of contending. The trouble is that bantamweight is loaded with talent and I’m not sure how many fights with the up-and-coming set I would favour the wrestle-boxer to win.
Stamann has been a guy that has taken whatever fights have been offered to him and been a consummate pro, so the “tenured veteran track” should be available to him; it’s just a matter of whether or not he’s willing to accept that role for himself.
Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn
Q: Has the window officially closed for Hawes?
Hawes was an early inductee into the “Fighter I Can’t Quit” club, as I remember when he was coming up at Jackson-Wink, remember the hype and promise he carried, and thought maybe, after a few setbacks and bouncing through a couple different gyms, he was poised to really make a run in the UFC middleweight division.
I don’t think that any more.
“Megatron” will likely continue to have the occasional compelling performance or big-time finish, but I think the window for him being a contender at middleweight is closed because the things that limit him — namely his chin — are things that just don’t get better with time. Now, if he were to adapt his style to avoid those instances where his chin is exposed and he’s wrestling more, maybe he can string together a few wins here and change my mind, but that knockout loss to Chris Curtis at MSG last November still feels like a sign that this is kind of where Hawes tops out.
This fight with Winn feels like one that could tempt people (read: me) to get back on the bandwagon, albeit in one of the seats up front so that I could get off quickly if need be, because he should be able to control things given the size difference between the two, but I’m going to do my best not to get sucked in.
The window is closed. The window is closed. Is the window closed?
Roman Dolidze vs. Kyle Daukaus
Q: Can Daukaus get a run started this weekend?
I’m probably overly high on Daukaus’ prospects because I thought he deserved a contract following his win on the Contender Series and have enjoyed a couple good conversations with him about fighting, being the younger brother, and his overall approach to life. He’s a good kid with good skills and as much as I want to see almost everyone succeed, he’s one of those people I continue to pay a little closer attention to because he seems like a genuine good dude.
His first couple years on the UFC roster were a mess; a combination of losses and cancelled fights and an accidental clash of heads that was retroactively determined to be severe enough to reverse the results of a fight that continued on for another 90 seconds. He couldn’t build a rhythm or any real consistency because between the pandemic and a constantly changing fight schedule, there was no way for him to actually get into a rhythm.
This is one of the things we laughed about, actually — how his schedule was constantly changing, while his brother, UFC heavyweight Chris Daukaus, gets booked, does his camps, and fights without any interruptions or alterations, ever.
The younger half of The Fighting Daukaus Brothers secured a quality first-round submission win last time out, and makes a relatively quick (for him), on schedule return this weekend against Dolidze looking for a second straight victory and a chance to really start moving forward in the middleweight ranks. I like what he brings to the table in terms of his length and grappling acumen, and he’s talked about showing off more of his striking this time around, plus he’s only 29.
Of all the unranked middleweights on this card on Saturday, I think he’s the one with the best opportunity to have a number next to his name in the next 18-24 months (max), but only time will tell.