UFC Austin: Punch Drunk Predictions

Will Calvin Kattar collect his second quality win of 2022 or can Josh Emmett make good on his second main event opportunity?

You know what I’m going to say.

If you’ve read me for any length of time, you have to know how I think this card is going to turn out, even without me saying it. It’s not just that I’m the eternal optimist about this stuff, but I also have a good read on these things, and this is one of those cards that is giving me real “… and then the card exceeded all expectations” vibes.

These are a bunch of evenly-matched, competitive fights between athletes in similar positions (for the most part), and events filled with fights like that have a way of producing entertaining action and a handful of thrilling finishes, and that’s what I expect to see happen on Saturday night in Austin.

It’s going to be a good time; I can feel it.

Here’s who I think is going to win.

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Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett

Earlier in the week, JJ Redick talked about the Golden State Warriors’ “championship stamina” as a key factor in their ability to outlast the Boston Celtics and ultimately win the NBA title on Thursday night. I know he’d hate me referencing the team that beat his team in relation to him, but I think Kattar’s “main event stamina” is going to be a big factor in his victory over Emmett on Saturday.

This is Kattar’s fourth consecutive main event and fifth overall; it’s Emmett’s second and first in four years. Logging those reps, preparing your body for those additional rounds, and navigating them as Kattar has in each of his last three outings is huge in a situation like this, where both guys have obvious skills, but one has a considerable edge in this kind of experience.

My sense since this fight came together is that it will be close and competitive through the first couple rounds, but the later it goes, the more Kattar will pull away. He’ll deploy that “Death by 150 Cuts” approach I talked about yesterday and just wear out Emmettt, who has big power, but doesn’t throw the kind of volume traditionally needed to beat Kattar.

Don’t be surprised to see Kattar work some calf kicks in as well; it’s a great way to disrupt rhythm and take away some of that power.

Prediction: Calvin Kattar

Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon

I just don’t think Cerrone has anything left in the tank.

People are going to say, “Lauzon hasn’t fought in two years!” like I’m not aware of that, but Lauzon pressed pause coming off a win — which is the most recent win between the two of them — and did it of his own accord. He didn’t bounce because he was getting the shit kicked out of him two or three times a year for a bunch of years and needed a break; he wisely stepped away, focused on coaching and his family, and is back now for a reasonable matchup against a fellow veteran.

And I think he gets the job done.

As we said on the Severe MMA Preview Show on Wednesday, if they’re both in their primes, Cerrone probably gets the nod and likely wins in impressive fashion, but they’re not in their primes, and I just don’t think that the old gunslinger can handle shots even remotely close to the way he did in the past. Lauzon catches him with a left and then takes his neck.

Prediction: Joe Lauzon

Tim Means vs. Kevin Holland

Skill-for-skill, Holland is clearly better than Means, but the veteran is far and away the more consistent, focused, dependable fighter of the two, which makes picking Holland feel risky.

Over the last couple years, this is the exact type of fight that Holland wins, usually with some style points, because the stakes aren’t that great and while Means is dangerous, he’s not a guy that doesn’t get beat too often or brings one real dominant skill to the table. He’s not going to come out on Saturday and look to wrestle Holland into oblivion, and that should provide the talkative Texan with plenty of opportunities to get loose with his hands and bump his gums.

Holland has good power and good finishing instincts, while Means has been put away by the finishers he’s faced throughout his UFC run (and Daniel Rodriguez), which leads me to believe “Loudmouth” finds a way to get this done inside the distance. My feeling is a counter shot while Means is charging forward, followed by Holland clamping onto a rear-naked choke.

Prediction: Kevin Holland

Joaquin Buckley vs. Albert Duraev

I don’t feel particularly confident in this pick because I know that Duraev could come out, take Buckley down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, but I’m hoping the finisher from St. Louis doesn’t allow that to happen, and instead finds something stank that puts the Russian down.

The tale of the tape is virtually identical, as are the striking numbers in terms of volume, which means this one comes down to power on the feet, and Buckley has that in spades. Now, he’s going to have to be smart about not throwing too many naked kicks that invite Duraev to catch and run the pipe or time and drive forward, but I think the southpaw look will be an advantage and the diversity of his offence should be as well.

This could end up looking a lot like the Antonio Arroyo fight, where not a lot happened for 12 minutes and then Buckley laid him out, but since I’m siding with “New Mansa,” that would be fine by me.

Prediction: Joaquin Buckley

Damir Ismagulov vs. Guram Kutateladze

There is just a physical presence to Kutateladze that I forgot about a little until I went back and re-watched his win over Mateusz Gamrot last night. He’s not actually crazy big, but he fights bigger, feels bigger, has a commanding presence in the cage, and it’s one of those things that really stands out when you see it.

While the time away is a slight concern, I think he can win this fight very similarly to the way he won the Gamrot fight — activity and pressure on the feet early, sound takedown defence, urgency getting back to his feet, and an edge in the power department.

As quality as Ismagulov is — and he is quality — he’s a little more mechanical and stiff with his striking, and he’s not a big volume takedown guy, so I think Kutateladze will be able to land kicks from range that keep him outside, hit with a few big punches, and avoid any real danger in the clinch or on the canvas on the way to collecting a second consecutive UFC victory.

Prediction: Guram Kutateladze

Julian Marquez vs. Gregory Rodrigues

There is something about Marquez’ burly, opportunistic style that intrigues me, and while I would not be the least bit shocked if “Robocop” came out here, blasted him with a clean right hand, and called it a day, I’m siding with the Dana White’s Contender Series graduate on sheer “he’ll find a way because that’s what he seems to do” instincts.

If you look at Marquez’ numbers, nothing jumps off the page — he’s not particularly big and doesn’t have a great reach; he doesn’t throw big volume and has never attempted a takedown in the UFC; and his takedown defence is a couple ticks north of 50%, which is not great, Bob… and yet he’s 3-1 in the UFC with three finishes, and his one loss was by split decision in a fight most media members scored in his favour.

Rodrigues is hittable and hurtable, especially if you can draw him into being sloppy, which I think Marquez will find a way to do. From there, the Glory MMA & Fitness will hunt a finish, find it, and pick up his third straight win.

Prediction: Julian Marquez

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Preliminary Card Picks

Adrian Yanez def. Tony Kelley
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Natalia Silva
Court McGee def. Jeremiah Wells
Ricardo Ramos def. Danny Chavez
Gloria de Paula def. Maria Oliveira
Cody Stamann def. Eddie Wineland
Phil Hawes def. Deron Winn
Kyle Daukaus def. Roman Dolidze

2022 PDP Record: 152-79-0 (.658)