UFC Columbus: Punch Drunk Predictions

Riding a six-fight winning streak and 22-4 over the last two events, can we keep this heater rolling in the Ohio capital?

I have a tendency to feel superstitious when it comes to talking about recent results in the opening of this piece, like the gods were going to come down and punish me for being proud of my recent efforts, but I’m trying to not worry about things like that any more because if I’m not going to sing my own praises, who will?

The answer, by the way, when it comes to this column specifically, is my guy Dan Urban, and I greatly appreciate it.

And generally speaking, it’s the Severe MMA guys — Seanie Podcasts, Ian O’Neill, Mr. Harry Powell, Sean Denny — and my man Chris / Unmatched MMA, all of whom I greatly appreciate.

But even though I get that support, I still have every reason to step out here and mention that I ran the table on the UFC London main card, went 10-2 with my picks for that show, and 12-2 the week before at the 50th APEX event, putting me right on the cusp of hitting that .700 winning percentage I’m aiming for each and every year.

Note: let this be another reminder of how ridiculously tough what I’m trying to do here is, and I don’t say that to be brash and pat myself on the back Barry Horowitz-style either — I’m 42 fights to the good this year and that’s still not quite good enough to be winning 70% of my picks.

I’d have to go 11-2 this week in order to get there, and d’you know? I’m probably not going to do it, but I sure am going to try!

Here’s this week’s edition of the Punch Drunk Predictions.

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Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus

This is a fight that Blaydes should, and likely will, win handily, and I don’t say that to be dismissive of Daukaus at all.

Blaydes is one of the seven best heavyweights in the UFC, and while he might not be in the mix for the first three spots, he’s in that 4-7 range, and Daukaus just isn’t, and outside of those few scattered instances where things goes all cattywampus or Daukaus lands pure with an early punch, the overall superior talent is going to win out.

I suspect he’ll clinch and wrestle and do both early and often, putting the Philadelphia native on his back and punishing him with heavy pressure and big shots. While Daukaus is a legit BJJ black belt, he’s not Paul Craig, happily working off his back, constantly searching for angles and openings; he’s good from top and solid in transitions with chokes, but neither of those opportunities are going to present themselves here.

The only question I have is whether Blaydes can get Daukaus out of there inside three, because if gets beyond that, I think we’ll see him fade a little and the fight go to the scorecards. I think he’ll be able to wrestle and maul the former police officer enough to find a stoppage somewhere in the opening couple of rounds, but either way, this should be a clear and dominant victory for Blaydes.

Prediction: Curtis Blaydes

Joanne Wood vs. Alexa Grasso

When we broke this fight down on the Severe MMA Preview, I talked about how negative results and struggles can be a thing that compound over time, impacting preparations and mindset as you ready to step into the cage, and I just can’t help but feel like Wood is in a place where there has been too much of that for her to really shake free and have a positive result here.

Grasso is at a point where she’s made the adjustments she needed to make in order to give herself the best opportunity to succeed — she’s moved up to flyweight, she’s tightened up her striking and become more active with it, she’s fighting with more aggression and confidence — and I have a feeling that as she comes forward and starts having success early, we’ll see Wood begin to retreat into herself and get demoralized.

The trouble for Wood is that she doesn’t really have a change-up available to her, right? You know what’s coming every time, and while she could look to wrestle more, I’m not sure she’s the better wrestler of the two or strong enough in that realm to keep Grasso grounded and grind out control time.

I’m expecting a striking battle and I’m anticipating Grasso getting the better of things throughout, thanks to superior movement, speed, diversity of shots, and overall pace.

Prediction: Alexa Grasso

Matt Brown vs. Bryan Barberena

I feel like this fight goes one of two ways: either Brown gets it done early or Barberena gets it done late, and I think I’m going to roll the dice with Brown getting it done early.

This is a pick’em fight according to oddsmakers, so I’m banking on Brown being fired up fighting at home in Columbus and taking advantage of Barberena’s tendency to start a little slow. If he wanted to change things up, there will be takedown opportunities, because “Bam Bam” has given up a ton (17 total) over his last three fights, and maybe there are opportunities to finish from top for the hometown veteran.

But even if they keep it standing, I do think Brown’s power remains — it’s always the last thing to go — and against someone quicker, cleaner, that throws more volume, I would be worried, but Barberena — and I say this as someone who really likes him as a fighter (and a guy) — is a plodder and grimy as hell, so those aren’t major concerns.

I think this ends up looking similar to Brown’s recent win over Dhiego Lima, with the veteran pressuring forward as he is wont to do, throwing heavy shots, searching for opportunities to find the finishing blow. Barberena isn’t as fluid and quick with his movements as the Brazilian, so I expect Brown to have even more sustained success early and eventually get the stoppage win at home.

Prediction: Matt Brown

Askar Askarov vs. Kai Kara-France

Kara-France can win this fight, but it’s going to take a masterful effort and the power he’s exhibited in his last two outings.

In the striking department, this is precision versus power — Askarov is a smooth, quick boxer who is going to beat you with volume more than anything, while Kara-France has clean technique as well, but hits with a different kind of force than most in the division, and he does it without really having to load up on it. But what gives Askarov the clear edge in this fight, at least to me, is the diversity of skills he brings to the cage this weekend.

If he doesn’t feel like he’s able to out-box Kara-France, he can look to wrestle, and if he gets it to the canvas, he can either attack with ground-and-pound, work for control positions, or chase down submissions. Kara-France needs to strike, and while his scrambling has improved and his defensive work on the mat has continued to get better, I don’t think Askarov is going to make the same mistakes Rogerio Bontorin made and give the City Kickboxing man opportunities to work free.

This feels like a matchup where we see Askarov rely on his wrestling and submission game, and get a finish to cement his standing as the No. 1 contender in the flyweight division.

Prediction: Askar Askarov

Ilir Latifi vs. Aleksei Oleinik

I adore this matchup of veteran European behemoths that are going to get in there and just look to out-muscle and out-old-man-strength one another.

As much as I would love to see Oleinik finally secure his 60th career win, his path to victory is almost exclusively on the ground, and I’m just not sure he can take Latifi down. Now, to be fair, Oleinik will have no issue pulling guard or giving up a takedown of his own if Latifi wants to take the fight to the canvas, because unlike Daukaus in the main event, the 44-year-old is deft off his back, but I don’t know if bringing the hulking “Sledgehammer” down to top position is a good idea.

Latifi has never been and will never be a guy that is going to throw a ton of volume, but everything is heavy and powerful, and it’s not going to take many big shots to get Oleinik in a compromised position. Unless “The Boa Constrictor” can coax him into an early ground battle and find a choke, this should be a victory for the slightly younger, more powerful Latifi.

Prediction: Ilir Latifi

Marc Diakiese vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

As much as this feels like a fight designed to get Borshchev over with a big win over a somewhat established name, I’m actually going to side with the underdog and pick Diakiese here.

In each of Borshchev’s two UFC-based appearances thus far — his Contender Series win over Chris Duncan, and his debut finish of Dakota Bush — the Team Alpha Male representative has gotten touched up and been forced to rally back. To his credit, he’s done that, but at some point, banking on your opponent being unable to maintain their momentum or affording you a chance to get back into the fight is a tough way to move forward, and I have a feeling we’ll see a little of that come through here.

For all his recent struggles — and he’s 2-5 in his last seven fights, which is pretty rough — Diakiese is still a terrific athlete, still just 29 years old, and still capable of having success at this level. As long as he doesn’t try to make this a straight boxing match, I think the Diakiese has more available weapons and more lanes to victory, primarily on the ground.

Look, we saw him out-wrestle and out-grapple Joe Duffy, who is a quality grappler in his own regard, and we also saw Dakota Bush put “Slava Claus” on the deck pretty easily last time out. The difference is that Diakiese won’t be rushed, won’t allow Borshchev to get up without having to work and taking some shots along the way.

I could end up being dead wrong here, but I’m willing to roll the dice with the more seasoned UFC fighter this time around.

Prediction: Marc Diakiese

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Preliminary Card Picks

Neil Magny def. Max Griffin
Sara McMann def. Karol Rosa
Danaa Batgerel def. Chris Gutierrez
Manon Fiorot def. Jennifer Maia
David Dvorak def. Matheus Nicolau
Aliashkab Khizriev def. Denis Tiuliulin
Bruno Souza def. Luis Saldana

2022 PDP Record: 76-34-0 (.691)