UFC London: Punch Drunk Predictions
Who's going to come out ahead after this weekend's dust-ups at The O2 Arena?
Remember me?
It’s been a hectic life week preparing to get our house on the market and making sure that the paid assignments have been submitted on time, which meant putting the ol’ newsletter aside for a few days, but I couldn’t go without busting out the Punch Drunk Predictions for this card because it’s a cracker!
The lads from Severe MMA, Cage Warriors announcer Brad Wharton, and I broke the card down earlier in the week and if you haven’t checked it out, you really should because you’re not going to find a better head-to-tails discussion about this card:
With that out of the way, let’s get to the picks, shall we?
Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall
Volkov has become the litmus test for heavyweight hopefuls over the last couple of years, but he’s landed on the wrong side of the results against the best of that bunch, and I think that’s what we’re going to see here as well.
Aspinall is a more well-rounded fighter than he’s been forced to show thus far, and while his gas tank will remain a question until he shows he can go five rounds without fading too much, I don’t know that we get to that point on Saturday. His size counteracts one of Volkov’s greatest weapons and from an activity and diversity of skills standpoint, I believe the Brit has a considerable advantage.
This is the fight where I believe we’re going to see Aspinall’s wrestling and grappling, as putting Volkov on the deck takes away the majority of his weapons and gives Aspinall a clearer, less daunting path to victory. I don’t think it will be as straightforward as Aspinall’s submission win over Andrei Arlovski, where he basically shoved him to the floor and attacked the choke in transition, but I do think the Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt will get to work from top position, find something he likes, and draw a tap from Volkov.
Prediction: Tom Aspinall
Arnold Allen vs. Dan Hooker
This was my pick for Fight of the Night on the preview show above and my thoughts from Wednesday remain the same today.
I think Arnold Allen can and will win the fight, but it’s going to take a ton of work and sharp focus because you don’t beat Dan Hooker unless you’re locked in and ready to go through it inside the Octagon, and even then there are no guarantees.
The path for Allen is to wrestle, and then wrestle, and then wrestle some more because we know his conditioning can hold up over three hard rounds at ‘45 and Hooker is making the move back down to featherweight for the first time in a handful of years, so taxing that gas tank makes sense. Additionally, there is no need for Allen to get into a striking match with Hooker, who is the far more polished fighter on the feet, so the ascending featherweight from Suffolk needs to get inside, stay inside, and ideally, get it down to the canvas repeatedly.
We should have some moments where they’re bombing on one another, but after getting that bit over with, I do think Allen will take the path of lesser resistance and grind out a win in the clinch and on the deck.
Prediction: Arnold Allen
Paddy Pimblett vs. Kazula Vargas
This is set up for “Paddy the Baddy” to have himself a showcase on home soil and I fully expect him to make the most of it.
Vargas is a relatively wooden veteran with standard skills, and while Pimblett got a little loose and touched up in his debut, I’m comfortable chalking that one up to being wired and trying to do too much too quickly, which won’t be the case here. The Scouse lightweight thrives in these situations, so expect him to work the crowd into a frenzied state with his entrance and then give them even more to cheer about with a first-round finish over Vargas soon after.
Prediction: Paddy Pimblett
Gunnar Nelson vs. Takashi Sato
Gunni hasn’t competed since September 2019 and hasn’t won a fight since December 2018, and yet I have no doubt that he’ll be victorious this weekend. Knowing the Icelandic grappler the little bit that I do, I know he wouldn’t come back if he wasn’t healthy and hungry to compete again, and since he’s back, I feel it’s safe to assume he’s ready to go.
Sato stepped in for Claudio Silva and gets a chance to chase his first UFC win since the summer of 2020. He has a little bit of pop in his strikes and a sound judo base, and is actually a livelier dog in this one then I think most assume because Nelson can be real hesitant with his striking.
It’s a weird fight because I can’t necessarily tell you the beats I see this fight hitting, unlike most contests, but I believe Nelson will be able to get the fight to the ground at some point and find a submission. It might take a little time and it might not be pretty on the way there, but Gunni should get a finish on Saturday.
Prediction: Gunnar Nelson
Molly McCann vs. Luana Carolina
I just can’t pick against Molly McCann on British soil, not after she got a much-needed win last time out.
Carolina has been showing decent development over her last couple of fights and will have a huge reach advantage, but McCann has never been afraid to eat shots in order to land blows of her own and always comes forward, which should be how she gets this one done. The Liverpool native is indefatigable and though she might get touched up a little along the way, I think she’ll stay active and advancing, wearing Carolina down over the course of three rounds to claim a 29-28 win on the cards.
Prediction: Molly McCann
Jai Herbert vs. Ilia Topuria
It’s going to be interesting to see how Topuria looks fighting up at lightweight for the first time because he’s a little undersized in general and will be giving up a ton of height and reach to Herbert, but skill-for-skill, the Georgian standout fighting out of Spain is a special talent and that should carry him to victory here.
Herbert can have success if he pumps the jab and keeps Topuria in space, but as my guy Harry Powell said in the preview show above, you don’t deal with Ryan Hall the way Topuria did unless you’re the genuine article, and I believe that will show through again here.
He might get hit with a couple coming forward, but ultimately, I see Topuria getting inside, getting Herbert to the canvas, and getting the submission — probably something like an arm-triangle choke, in the second or third round. I hope he can sort out a return to featherweight, because that’s where I think he’s best suited to compete and succeed, but either way, I’m just happy to see Topuria in there again this weekend.
Prediction: Ilia Topuria
Preliminary Card Picks
Mike Grundy def. Makwan Amirkhani
Sergei Pavlovich def. Shamil Abdurakhimov
Paul Craig def. Nikita Krylov
Jack Shore def. Timur Valiev
Cory McKenna def. Elise Reed
Muhammad Mokaev def. Cody Durden
2022 PDP Record: 66-32-0 (.673)