UFC London: Punch Drunk Predictions
Will Curtis Blaydes show he's on a different level or can Tom Aspinall close out a second straight London show in style?
Expectations are high for tomorrow’s return to The O2 Arena.
The UFC is making a hasty second trip across the pond because the first show in March was a rousing success, the holdover athletes and fighters from the United Kingdom certainly want to build on their previous efforts and show out in front of the partisan crowd, and after going 10-2 with my picks for that initial event, I really would like another highly successful evening with these selections.
Unfortunately, I think this card is a little tougher to call, which brings a greater risk.
But who doesn’t like a little risk?
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Curtis Blaydes vs. Tom Aspinall
This is the first of the “I could be completely wrong, but here goes” selections, and I’m stating it up front, not as a hedge, but as an acknowledgement that this is a close fight, Curtis Blaydes is a tremendous talent, and I wouldn’t not be at all surprised if he came out and halted Tom Aspinall’s ascent up the heavyweight ranks.
But I think Aspinall is special, and we see that in full for the first time here.
Up until his last appearance, I thought the Manchester man would have a pretty standard trajectory: build up a good winning streak, as he had, but stumble in his first big test before getting a couple more wins, a second shot at an established contender, and we’d see from there.
The way he rolled through Alexander Volkov prompted me to alter that thinking a little, and the mindset and overall cerebral approach he’s exhibited to his career has pushed me further in the “Aspinall could be special” direction. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s 28, moves extremely well for a man his size, has very good boxing and a deft submission game as well.
Blaydes is a handful and will surely test Aspinall’s defensive wrestling skills, but on the feet, I think the Brit is the more diverse and fluid fighter, and if the fight stretches into the latter rounds, his superior athleticism and conditioning should rule the day.
Prediction: Tom Aspinall
Jack Hermansson vs. Chris Curtis
I just can’t pick against Curtis at this point.
The 35-year-old “Action Man” is such a polished, fundamentally sound fighter that it’s going to take him being in there with a high-level talent before I start leaning towards going against him, and as all-around solid as Hermansson is, this still feels like a fight that Curtis can and will win on Saturday.
He benefits from his coaching staff having just put together a winning game plan for Sean Strickland, who beat “The Joker” in February, but I also think that his commitment to working the body and quality defensive wrestling will serve him well here. Hermansson is a fast starter, and as long as Curtis doesn’t get caught in something right out of the chute, I believe he’ll get into a groove and pick apart the middleweight stalwart.
Prediction: Chris Curtis
Paddy Pimblett vs. Jordan Leavitt
Every fibre of my being wants to pick Jordan Leavitt because I really don’t think Pimblett is anything special, but because this isn’t a neutral site game, I have to go with “The Baddy” on Saturday.
This is an odd matchup because both guys are best on the ground, and neither care all that much about being on bottom, so we could get some cool grappling exchanges and interesting submission setups out of this one. Where I think Pimblett has an advantage is in the striking department, where he’s shown he’s got a little pop in his hands, and Leavitt is often reluctant to engage.
Pimblett has to make sure not to leave his chin high when he’s crashing forward and be mindful of what’s happening when they eventually tangle on the ground, but there is a path to victory by pressing forward with big shots and getting out when Leavittt looks to clinch that is right there if he wants to take it.
Prediction: Paddy Pimblett
Nikita Krylov vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Yeah, picking a guy that hasn’t won in five years is crazy, but I’m giving Alexander Gustafsson the benefit of the doubt in this one.
We said on the Severe MMA Preview Show that in their primes, Gustafsson rolls, but I honestly feel that even 75 percent version of “The Mauler” should be able to get the job done against Krylov, who is good, but certainly not anything more than a lower-third fixture in the Top 15. The big question is whether Gustafsson can even get it back to 75 percent at this point?
It’s hard to get a read from speaking to him because he says everything in the same level, even tone, but I would have to imagine that for a guy that was as close to winning gold as he was — TWICE — ending things on a three-fight losing streak (or more) isn’t all that appealing. As such, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a much better version of Gustafsson than we’ve seen in recent outings, and he gets his hand raised for the first time since 2017.
Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson
Molly McCann vs. Hannah Goldy
“Meatball” needs to be measured in this one if she wants to keep her modest winning streak going.
Goldy is wicked strong and the kind of physical athlete that could, in theory, put McCann on the deck or against the fence and keep her there for extended periods, chipping away with short shots and submission looks, leaving her frustrated and annoyed. She’s also got some reasonable power in her very stiff punches, so there is that too.
With that established, I think McCann should win — she has better movement, has looked better of late, and will be buoyed by the partisan crowd. She’s a little too happy to brawl at times and will need to take more of a “stick and move” approach to avoid trouble spots, but I think she’s in a different place mentally now when it comes to her career and approaching things in the Octagon, and that will show on Saturday.
Prediction: Molly McCann
Paul Craig vs. Volkan Oezdemir
You’re going to let me get a guy that is undefeated in his last six (Craig) as an underdog against a fella that has dropped two straight (Oezdemir), with even better odds for him to finish inside the distance?
Sign. Me. Up.
I think Craig has figured out how to fight to his strengths and give himself the best chance to get things done, and while that often means allowing opponents to get comfortable punching him in the face from top position, the guy has a knack for making it work, and who am I to bet against his proven approach?
Oezdemir hasn’t looked good in a while. His two-fight skid should really be a three-fight skid, which would then mean he’s 1-6 in his last seven. As it stands, he’s 2-5 and that’s not good either. While you can make the case that it’s against top end talent, Craig is a Top 10 light heavyweight — he’s ranked ahead of Oezdemir for that matter — and I think he finds a way to coax the Swiss stalwart to the deck where he’ll lock up another triangle or catch an armbar or something.
Dude is just too tough overall and too freakishly effective off his back to pick against in a relatively even matchup like this one.
Prediction: Paul Craig
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Preliminary Card Picks
Ludovit Klein def. Mason Jones
Marc Diakiese def. Damir Hadzovic
Nathaniel Wood def. Charles Rosa
Makwan Amirkhani def. Jonathan Pearce
Muhammad Mokaev def. Charles Johnson
Jai Herbert def. Kyle Nelson
Mandy Bohm def. Victoria Leonardo
Nicolas Dalby def. Claudio Silva
2022 PDP Record: 187-103-0, 1 NC