UFC Long Island: Punch Drunk Predictions

Ortega or Rodriguez? Waterson or Lemos? Who will get their hand raised and who will suffer a setback?

The key to being a good bettor (or to picking fights, in this case) is minimizing your losses.

I know what you’re thinking — “No shit, Spencer! Thanks for the revelation!” — but a lot of people don’t actually understand that concept the way they should. I didn’t during all my years as a degenerate gambler, when I would chase lost money with new money, doubling down when I should have been cutting bait and calling it a night.

Or a week, a month, or a wrap entirely, which is what I eventually did.

I’ve gotten there this year with these picks too, which is why I’ve had a winning percentage north of .600 for the whole year. And before you scoff at that number, start keeping track of your picks over the next seven weeks — from this show until the end of August — and tell me how many times you go 6-for-10 or better during that stretch.

It’s harder than it looks, but there are ways to make it easier.

I’ve only been below .500 four times, including last week, but in three of those four instances, it was a one-fight different between a positive night and a winning night. The one time I was well south of that middle ground was the one time I went into the night feeling, knowing that I was taking a bunch of chances that could have gone sideways, and then did — UFC Vegas 52, where I went 4-7.

Otherwise, I’ve been making smart calls, and though they don’t all come through, there aren’t nights where I’m killing my overall numbers either, and that’s the key.

That’s minimizing losses.

Picking ‘dogs is more fun than going chalk all the time, but in a lot of instances, those fighters are underdogs for a reason. There are times to get it in and make bank, but it’s about being selective — taking the right risks, picking the right dogs, and having reason, evidence, logic to back up play. As someone with digestion issues, I’ve learned not to trust my gut, and you should too.

I say all that in order to say this: Saturday feels like a good day to befriend some dogs, but be smart — only play with what you can afford to lose, and don’t spend good money chasing results that didn’t go your way.

Starting in August, I’m going to start incorporating bets into this column — straight plays, a few props — and keep track of my results, as always, just to see how I do and provide some further insights since that’s becoming an even bigger part of the MMA space these days.

I’ll begin with a $100 bankroll, use the odds available on Bet365, and we’ll see how we do.

Here are my picks for this weekend.

Please enjoy responsibly.

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Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez

This was a difficult call to make, but here’s why I’m going with Rodriguez: I think this is going to be a competitive fight where both men have their moments, but I expect it to be contested almost exclusively on the feet. As good as Ortega’s submission game is, it’s just that — a submission game; he’s not a grappler in the sense that he’s going to hit double legs or really look to work in for a body lock and trips, and I just don’t know that Rodriguez presents him with any opportunities to dive on his neck.

Between the two, I think Roodriguez is the faster, sharper, more fluid striker, as well as the more varied striker, plus Ortega doesn’t wear damage well at all. After two rounds, I expect Ortega to be lumped up, cut up, bruised, and bleeding, and while Rodriguez might be as well, I just think there is something about the way Ortega takes damage and exhibits damage that is going to work against him here.

As long as Rodriguez keeps the wildness in check and doesn’t put himself in spots to get choked, he should be able to work from range and with greater speed to out-hustle and out-land Ortega on the feet and secure the victory.

Prediction: Yair Rodriguez

Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Amanda Lemos

This has “Marlon Vera vs. Rob Font” vibes to me, with Lemos’ power carrying the day.

Waterson-Gomez needs to be hyper-active and hyper-diverse to beat Lemos, in my opinion — she needs to wrestle and grapple, but also work in volume strikes, attacking the legs specifically, and I’m just not sure she’s got that in her arsenal. She traditionally lands less than four strikes-per-minute and connects at a 48% clip (per UFCstats.com), while Lemos lands more and at a greater clip, plus she has the power advantage.

This feels like another one of those fights where we see how Waterson-Gomez is a very talented fighter competing up a division, which has always and will alway limit her upside.

Lemos lands heavy counters and connects at a greater clip throughout, getting herself back into the win column and setting a new baseline for where she fits within the division.

Prediction: Amanda Lemos

Li Jingliang vs. Muslim Salikhov

I think this is going to be one of those times where the guy with superior power and athleticism gets the better of the more technical fighter.

As quality as Salikhov’s run has been — and a five-fight winning streak in the UFC welterweight division that includes wins over Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos and Francisco Trinaldo is a good run — he’s now wading in there against a significantly younger, more athletic, more explosive fighter in Jingliang, and I believe those advantages will give “The Leech” a clear path to victory.

Lest we forget, Jingliang also faced and beat EZDS, getting him out of there in the third round, and has another stoppage win over Santiago Ponzinibbio. He’s faced superior opposition and while Salikhov could, in theory, replicate the Neil Magny stick-and-move approach, I just don’t know that he has the kind of conditioning and quickness to implement that style here.

My guess is that it’s close early and Jingliang pulls away down the stretch as the pressure and power shots start to get to Salikhov more and more.

Prediction: Li Jingliang

Matt Schnell vs. Sumudaerji

I think Sumudaerji has talent and upside in the flyweight division, but I’ve got to see him beat someone like Schnell before I can pick him to beat someone like Schnell.

His win over Malcolm Gordon was a beautiful left hand, and he was solid throughout his subsequent victory over Zarrukh Adashev, but neither of those guys are Top 15 fighters with five UFC victories, and while the results haven’t been there of late for the veteran Louisiana native, Schnell has faced vastly superior competition and lost to fighters stationed ahead of him in the rankings.

The reach advantage isn’t as pronounced for “The Tibetan Eagle” this time around, and I think the combination of Schnell’s experience, well-rounded skill set, pressure, and pace will be too much for the still untested 26-year-old to deal with this time around.

Prediction: Matt Schnell

Shane Burgos vs. Charles Jourdain

I think Jourdain has tapped into something different over these last couple fights and we’re about to see the best version of him to date. Whether that guy is good enough right now to beat Burgos will be determined on Saturday in the Octagon, but I’m leaning towards that happening.

It’s not that I think Burgos is washed or shot or any of those things — I think he’s a helluva fighter, wildly entertaining, and a perfect guy to live in the 13-20 range in this division, facing guys like Jourdain and putting on barnburners. I do wonder, however, if constantly being in barnburners is starting to catch up to him a little, as there were moments in both his fight with Edson Barboza and his bout with Billy Quarantillo where we saw him rattled, and I’ll be curious to know if that’s all these battles starting to catch up to him a little.

I also think that Jourdain is quick and capable of countering with power, much like he did with the left hand that dropped Lando Vannata, setting up the finish in his last fight. Again, I don’t know if he’s quick enough or has the juice to put Burgos down in a similar situation, but this feels like an ascending fighter facing an established guy at just the right time that he might be able to get him.

Jourdain’s last two efforts have impressed me a great deal and I think the French-Canadian is ready to take a real step forward, starting with a win on Saturday.

Prediction: Charles Jourdain

Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate

This is Tate’s fight to lose.

She made weight without issue on Friday morning (and looked reasonably healthy doing so) which should mean she’s ready to run down Murphy in one way or another this weekend. Her best course of attack (IMO) is to strike her way into range, get in on a body lock, and turn this into a grappling match, because she’s very good from top position with both her control and her attacks, while Murphy isn’t a real threat to catch something off her back.

The only thing she can’t do is get into a dogfight with Murphy — this can’t be a grimy, both women eat some shots battle on the feet, because that makes this a more competitive, “could go either way” kind of fight and it doesn’t have to be that way.

Tate is the superior athlete and should be able to use that to her advantage to dictate the terms of engagement, secure a victory, call for a title opportunity, and then eventually get mauled by Valentina Shevchenko.

Prediction: Miesha Tate

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Preliminary Card Predictions

Punahele Soriano def. Dalcha Lungiambula
Jack Shore def. Ricky Simon
Bill Algeo def. Herbert Burns
Da-un Jung def. Dustin Jacoby
Dustin Stoltzfus def. Dwight Grant
Emily Ducote def. Jessica Penne

2022 PDP Record: 179-99-0, 1 NC (.642)