UFC Q1 Reflections: Plenty to Like, Plenty More to Come
With the first quarter of 2021 in the books, here's a look back at what transpired and what's in store for Q2 and beyond
And just like that, the first three months of 2021 are in the books.
We’ve now traversed a full year dealing with COVID-19 and the changes it has brought to the UFC — from trips to Fight Island and the constant worry of fight cancellations to cards of all sizes and tons of fights inside the small Octagon at the UFC Apex — and much like the final nine months of last year, the opening quarter of 2021 was, all things considered, pretty enjoyable.
I’m someone that tends to look at things from a “what does X set up for Y” perspective when it comes to fight cards, results, and just the overall schedule of events, and the 11 events that made up the schedule in January, February, and March not only yielded a ton of “in the moment” excitement, but they also set the table for what has the potential to be a truly memorable remainder of the year.
Think about it: we have a trilogy fight between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor on the horizon, the possibility of a heavyweight title clash between new champ Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones, intrigue at the top of the bantamweight division, a new lightweight champ that is going to be crowned, a more established and respected light heavyweight champ after Jan Blachowicz handed Israel Adesanya his first loss, and the first event of Q2 features three title fights, including the second welterweight title fight of 2021.
Even if you’re not big on the rematch between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal, you have to at least acknowledge that Usman making a quick turnaround and logging two fights in the opening four months of the year is tremendous and sets the table for a potential four-fight year for “The Nigerian Nightmare.”
On top of that, we still have a flyweight title rematch between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno to book, the featherweight title bout between Alexander Volkanovski and Brian Ortega to reschedule (get well soon, Volk!), further intrigue in the welterweight Top 10, new names making noise in myriad divisions — including heavyweight! — and all the “I didn’t see that coming” stuff that happens organically every year.
I know I come off as the pguy that always tries to find the positives, but even with some of the disappointments that cropped up in the first three months of 2021, I feel like calling the opening quarter of the UFC schedule successful and enjoyable is far from a stretch. There were a number of outstanding performances, electric finishes, impressive newcomers, and angles set up to sink our teeth into over the coming months, which is exactly what I’m looking for from every three-month parcel of action inside the Octagon.
There was plenty to like, and there is plenty more to come.
Here’s a closer look at some of my first quarter favorites.
Best Individual Performance: Francis Ngannou (UFC 260)
There can be no other answer here, and I say that will all due respect to some of the other names in the running for this honor like Max Holloway, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, and Kamaru Usman.
All three of those men looked outstanding in their victorious efforts in Q1, with Holloway authoring a master class in boxing and ring generalship against Calvin Kattar, Poirier continuing to show his evolution by evening things up with Conor McGregor, Chandler proving beyond all doubts that he belongs with a first-round knockout win in his debut, and Usman navigating the first truly rough patch of his championship reign before rallying to finish Gilbert Burns, yet somehow, Ngannou outshined them all and it wasn’t particularly close.
Now two sleeps removed from Ngannou’s heavyweight title-winning turn at UFC 260, I’m still enthralled by what we saw from the new champion in the first round of his rematch with Stipe Miocic.
In that five minutes, Ngannou answered every question that lingered from their first meeting and showed there are new elements to his game that championship hopefuls need to worry about going forward. Not only did he show that he’s shored up his takedown defence, but he displayed vastly improved offensive wrestling as well, opening the door to the scary prospect of Ngannou in mount raining down blows on some poor soul.
He was patient and technical, composed throughout, and coupled with his already devastating power, it made for an absolutely incredible performance last Saturday night in Las Vegas.
Best Fight: Charles Jourdain vs. Marcelo Rojo (UFC Vegas 21)
Last weekend’s co-main event between Vicente Luque and Tyron Woodley was four minutes of entertaining chaos, the UFC 259 bout between Kennedy Nzechukwu and Carlos Ulberg was an eight-minute rollercoaster, and the tussles between Pedro Munhoz and Jimmie Rivera and Beneil Dariush and Diego Ferreira well classic “see how good these guys are?” efforts from under-appreciated standouts in big spots, but for my money, Jourdain and Rojo combined for the best fight of the first quarter.
This was a war of attrition, with Jourdain steadily chipping away at the very game, very tough Rojo before finally pulling away in the third round and getting the finish. It was equal parts technical and scrappy, with both men doing quality work and dipping into the complete collection of attacks they each bring to the cage.
For Jourdain, it was a much-needed victory after going 0-1-1 in 2020, while for Rojo, who was briefly scheduled to debut earlier in the year, it was an outstanding first showing for the tough-as-nails 32-year-old who immediate became a “definitely looking forward to seeing him fight again” guy for me.
Best Knockout: Cory Sandhagen (vs. Frankie Edgar, UFC Vegas 18)
This is one of those instances where the bar in the individual “… of the Year” race was set incredibly high early, and while there are sure to be other stunning finishes over the next nine months, it’s going to be pretty hard to top this one as far as knockouts go.
Just 28 seconds into their pivotal bantamweight title eliminator, Cory Sandhagen drew Frankie Edgar into a jumping knee that landed flush and stopped “The Answer” dead in his tracks.
You just don’t see finishes like this all that often, where someone just elevates, lands, and walks off, and you see it even less in bouts between two of the very best in a given division.
The two-pack that Sandhagen has put together since losing to Aljamain Sterling last summer is outstanding and positions the Elevation Fight Team standout as the top contender in the talent-rich 135-pound weight class.
Best Submission: Islam Makhachev (vs. Drew Dober, UFC 259)
Just like the other categories thus far, there were a number of quality options here — Amanda Nunes, Sean Brady, “Fluffy” Hernandez, even Luque — but whenever I do these types of things (read: hand out awards/honors), I try to think about the circumstances of the fight and where the competitors fall in the divisional hierarchy because those things are major factors to me.
Now, sometimes there are performances that are undeniable to the point that it doesn’t matter if the participants are contenders or not, but in a close race (as this is right now), I tend to lean towards efforts like the one put forth by Makhachev against Dober on the first card of the month.
Even if you only look at the finish itself, securing an arm-triangle choke while still suck in someone’s half-guard is difficult, and requires a very serious amount of technical aptitude and an insane squeeze, and Makhachev has both.
What elevates this one for me is that this was the Dagestan native’s big audition — his first fight since his friend, training partner, and now coach Khabib Nurmagomedov retired, and the one that was supposed to show us whether the years of hype and high praise were justified — and not only did Makhachev validate the hype, he exceeded it, establishing himself as a new nightmare matchup in the lightweight division in the process.
There were a ton of performance that have me eagerly awaiting the encore later this year, but I honestly might be looking forward to seeing what’s next for Makhachev the most; he looked that good and has that much upside to me.
Best Newcomer: “King” Casey O’Neill
Michael Chandler is the top newcomer in terms of athletes who made their UFC debuts in the first quarter of 2021 because the dude knocked out a legit Top 10 competitor in Dan Hooker and is set to fight for the lightweight title later this year, but Chandler is a newcomer only in the sense that he just now started competing in the Octagon.
Think of it like when Sergei Makarov rolled into the NHL and won Rookie of the Year as a 31-year-old with the Calgary Flames, prompting the creation of The Makarov Rule, which says you have to be 26 or younger to win the Calder Trophy.
As such, I’m siding with “King” Casey O’Neill, who earned a second-round submission win over Shana Dobson towards the end of February to push her record to 6-0 overall.
Just 23 years old, Casey dominated Dobson from start to finish, and has already inked her next assignment as well, as she’s slated to face Lara Procopio in mid-June. I get that Dobson isn’t a world-beater and has subsequently been released, but how she won is perhaps more important than who she beat, and should serve as a strong indication that the Scottish-born newcomer who now fights out of Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas is one to pay close attention to going forward.
There is room for rapid advancement in the flyweight division because Valentina Shevchenko has been so dominant and everyone south of the top seven or eight contenders are pretty tightly packed, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Casey get a similar push to that of fellow 23-year-old upstart Miranda Maverick. Both still have some growing to do, but the upside is pretty obvious, and depending on how things go in June against Procopio, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Casey get a test comparable to the one Maverick passed last weekend against Gillian Robertson next.
First Quarter Stats
Because I’m a colossal dork who is genuinely obsessed with this sport, I keep spreadsheets about “The Year in the Octagon” and wanted to share some of those first quarter numbers with you.
The overall finishing rate in the UFC through the first quarter is 46.4% — 58 finishes from 125 fights
Exactly half of the fights on the men’s side of the roster have ended in stoppages so far this year — 39 T/KO + 12 Subs (51 total) in 102 fights
Highest finishing rate? Heavyweights at 77.8% — seven finishes in nine fights
Second highest? Bantamweights at 75% — a dozen stoppages in 16 fights
Featherweight and flyweight are the only two divisions on the men’s side of the roster with a finishing rate below 30%
Finishes have been harder to come by on the women’s side of the roster, with just 30.4% of fights ending inside the distance — seven finishes in 23 fights
Strawweight has produced a 50% finishing rate thus far this year, however — three stoppages in six fights
Three weight classes have yet to produce a submission finish so far in 2021: men’s featherweight and each of the flyweight divisions
Women’s bantamweight is the only division with more than a single fight to not produce a T/KO yet this year; there have been seven fights resulting in six decisions and one submission
Men’s bantamweight has been the most active division thus far in 2021, with 16 fights, followed by featherweight (15), and middleweight and welterweight (14 each)
Flyweight leads the way on the women’s side with nine fights thus far, followed by bantamweight (7), and strawweight (6); there has been only one featherweight fight to date
Extrapolating the first quarter numbers over an entire year, we’re on pace for 500 fights, 252 T/KOs, 172 submissions, four DQs, four draws, and eight No Contest verdicts, though I’ll be shocked if those last three come true