UFC Vegas 17 Punch Drunk Predictions

Offering analysis and picks for Saturday's final UFC fight card of 2020

Every year when I sit down to start doing predictions, my aim is to finish with a .700 winning percentage or better; it’s a lofty target, but why not aim high so that if I fail to hit the mark, I’m still clicking at a pretty good clip?

The pandemic sidelined my desire to drop weekly predictions this year. Actually, the pandemic sidelined my desire to do much of anything, really.

As someone that already worked from home and had limited in-person interactions on a day-to-day basis, reducing that already low number and spending even more time in my office, on my computer, getting bummed out by Twitter for even more reasons than usual, the idea of penning this piece every Friday just wasn’t that appealing.

I started the year offering my weekly selections in a pre-fight tweet, but even that went away after a handful of weeks because I took some time away from Twitter and I just wasn’t all that motivated to put them out there.

But launching this newsletter and feeling a little better about things overall (therapy and exercise work!) has got me back on the prediction train and looking forward to a 2021 campaign where I get 7/10 fights right, I keep track of all the nerdy stats and analytic stuff I’ve always enjoyed and got away from, and maybe, by this time next year, things will be — and I hate myself for using this phrase — back to normal.

Oh, I’m also going to grow this thing into something indispensable to everyone wise enough to have subscribed and flex more of the skills I’ve developed and honed over more than a dozen years writing about the fight game a little more too.

Thank you for listening to this Ted Talk.

Here are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Vegas 17.

Stephen Thompson vs. Geoff Neal

If I’m thinking about this from a strictly technical, skill-for-skill standpoint, I have to side with Thompson, as “Wonderboy” is as difficult a puzzle to solve on the feet as anyone in the UFC and the list of fighters to actually get the better of him inside the Octagon is very short and comprised of fighters who are more accomplished than Neal.

I can see this being a comparable fight to Thompson’s victory over Vicente Luque at UFC 244, where he halted the streaking Brazilian’s run of success by utilizing his standard “in and out” approach to pick away at Luque for 15 minutes. It was a fun fight and Luque landed a few shots, but the final result was never in doubt.

Having said all that, there is a piece of me that can’t shake this being the fight where Thompson starts to show his age a little more and Neal is able to channel Anthony Pettis a little and connect with that one shot that shifts the momentum of this fight in his favor.

Maybe it’s because we just witnessed Tony Ferguson, who is a year younger than Thompson, get dominated by a younger, emerging foe, or because Neal has been even better than people seem to understand in his run up to this fight, but I’m actually going to side with “Handz of Steel” securing the biggest win of his career and heading into 2021 as a bona fide contender the welterweight division.

The more I think about how this one plays out, the Pettis fight feels like more of the blueprint than anything else, with Neal taking less damage than “Showtime” did prior to landing the singular shot that put Thompson on the deck in Nashville. The Fortis MMA product has legitimate fight-altering power and a multitude of weapons at his disposal that can shift the tides, so while “Wonderboy” is sure to have his moments and may very well get ahead on the cards, I think there will come a point where Neal gets a read on his timing and movement, connects with something that interrupts Thompson’s rhythm and secures the finish from there.

Prediction: Geoff Neal by TKO

Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera

This is such a difficult fight to forecast for me because Aldo is just a bundle of conflicting information at this point in his career.

On one hand, he’s lost three straight, five of his last seven, and has all the markings of a guy who could fall of a cliff in terms of performance and his ability to withstand punishment after a lengthy career filled with tough fights, tougher weight cuts, and too much accumulated damage.

On the other hand, he seems to have less trouble making ‘35 than he did ‘45, those three losses are to a pair of current champions (Petr Yan and Alexander Volkanovski) and a Top 5 talent by razor-thin decision, and he has historically feasted on guys like Vera — talented fighters that just aren’t quite at that championship level.

I think the improvements and development Vera has shown over the last several years is outstanding and legitimate, and that he’ll be a fixture in the Top 15 for the next several years, and I think this weekend is when the rest of the world starts to figure all that out too.

Listen — I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Aldo dialled it up and won this fight going away, using low kicks and body shots to wear down Vera en route to a decision victory, but I think every one of these hard-fought losses take a toll on a fighter, especially someone with as many miles on their tires as Aldo, and “Chito” is the kind of tenacious, aggressive fighter who will attack from the jump not allow the Brazilian legend to get comfortable.

While this is a considerable step up in competition for the former Ultimate Fighter Latin America contestant, his performance merits a fight of this magnitude and I believe this will turn into a “two ships passing in the night” kind of situation where the Ecuadorian rising star takes another step forward and the former featherweight kingpin takes another step back.

Prediction: Marlon Vera by unanimous decision

Michel Pereira vs. Khaos Williams

One thing I know for sure about this fight is that it’s going to be edge-of-your-seat exciting from the outset because Pereira is a certified wild man and Williams has an average fight time of 28.5 seconds through his first two UFC appearances.

In terms of how things will actually shake out when the dust settles, I have to go side with Williams here.

Look, Pereira is a lunatic — and I mean that in the best way possible — but he’s also so unconventional and frenetic in the cage that it (a) he has times where he’s doing a lot without “scoring” much, (b) he wastes a ton of energy, and (c) he leaves himself susceptible to counter-attacks because his hands are down and he’s trying to figure out how to land a backflip or rolling thunder instead of just making sure he doesn’t get punched in the face.

I wasn’t sure of what to expect from Williams following his debut win over Alex Morono because it was a rampaging, sudden finish where he simply overwhelmed “The Great White” and efforts like that are hard to duplicate. But watching him uncork the counter right hand that instantly put Abdul Razak Alhassan to sleep, it became apparent that he’s technically sound as well as powerful, and that’s a crucial distinction.

My guess is Pereira does Pereira things early, but Williams find an opening for one of those right hands inside the distance to pick up his third win and strengthen his case as the top breakthrough fighter of 2020.

Prediction: Khaos Williams by TKO

Marlon Moraes vs. Rob Font

You could make a case for this being a better, more competitive matchup than the co-main event as Moraes and Font are closer in the rankings (No. 3 and 11, respectively) than Aldo and Vera (No. 7 and 15) and each are slightly more established in terms of their fits in the division.

As I detailed yesterday, this is a crucial matchup for each man, as Moraes needs a win to remain in the title mix, and Font needs to beat someone like Moraes in order to get there for the first time.

I sided with the younger men in both the main and co-main events and I’m doing the same here because — and this may be a surprise to some — Moraes is actually the younger of these two bantamweights.

I really like Rob Font and think he’s perfectly cast a guy who lives in the 8-13 range in the division, knocking off pretenders, and going 2-1, 3-1, 3-2 with losses to established, elite fighters and real up-and-coming threats for the next couple years. But these are the fights where he has historically struggled and it certainly doesn’t help that he’s returning for first time in over a year after tearing his ACL during his win over Ricky Simon last December.

Moraes has a tendency to fade, but with only 15 minutes to work and coming off another key loss, I think we see a strong bounce-back performance and a submission finish from the Brazilian in this one.

Prediction: Marlon Moraes by submission

Gillian Robertson vs. Taila Santos

This is the matchup I’m the least confident about simply because Santos still feels like such an unknown to me. She’s split her first two UFC appearances, looked great last time out, but her first 14 opponents had approximately 19 total fights combined, so it’s impossible to know how trustworthy her 16-1 record is at this point.

While I wouldn’t be shocked to see her come out and score the biggest win of her career by outworking Robertson, I’m siding with “The Savage” because she’s got far more experience against established talent and I think she could develop into a legitimate contender in the flyweight division in the next couple of years.

Seriously — tell me you can’t see Robertson becoming a Demian Maia-like figure who suffocates and mauls opponents on the canvas and is just good enough on the feet to keep you guessing?

The 25-year-old is already 6-2 in the UFC and showing consistent improvements each time out. Plus, if you’re the type that values “Who did it better?” comparisons, Robertson finished Molly McCann, where Santos could not.

I think this year has already been a small little coming out party for Robertson and her two impressive wins haven’t gotten the attention they deserve because there has been a lot of other stuff to focus on, but a third consecutive victory will put her on the radar heading in 2021 and set her up for even greater opportunities next year.

Prediction: Gillian Robertson by submission

Marcin Tybura vs. Greg Hardy

Can I see Hardy landing something sharp that puts Tybura on skates and leads to the biggest win of his career? Sure, they’re heavyweights, he’s more athletic than most, and he has been improving throughout his UFC journey.

Do I think it actually happens? No, no I do not.

Tybura is a master when it comes to ugly’ing up a fight and frustrating the ever-loving hell out of his opponents and, quite frankly, fans watching at home. He’s great in the clinch, has good durability, and enough of a gas tank that he can grind for the first 10 minutes and still have enough left in reserve to grind out the final round as well.

And that’s what is going to happen here.

Clinch, grind, trip, grind, stand up, clinch, grind, lather, rinse, repeat.

Prediction: Marcin Tybura by unanimous decision

Preliminary Card Picks

Anthony Pettis def. Alex Morono
Pannie Kianzad def. Sijara Eubanks
Deron Winn def. Antonio Arroyo
Tafon Nchukwi def. Jamie Pickett
Jimmy Flick def. Cody Durden
Christos Giagos def. Carlton Minus

Enjoy the fisticuffs, friends.