UFC Vegas 30: Punch Drunk Predictions
Will Ciryl Gane remain unbeaten or can Alexander Volkov turn back the emerging French contender?
It’s not that the fights starting early is the only selling point of Saturday’s fight card, but as far as selling points go, it’s right up there because on a card crafted for hardcores, getting the action underway at 10am PT means everything is wrapped up in plenty of time to still have a nice little Saturday night if you’re so inclined, rather than staying up until early Sunday morning omen the East Coast to catch the main event.
Never mind if you’re one of those poor English or Irish lads taking in the action and breaking it down on the interwebs, staying up until ungodly hours in order to transmit information about Tim Means and Nicolas Dalby.
(raises glass towards the folks across the Atlantic)
And listen: I like this card, quite a bit, but as we’ve covered plenty, I’m not normal.
Having said that, the main event between Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov is meaningful and important, even if the next step forward for the winner is unclear, and a main card opportunity for Raoni Barcelos is long overdue, so that’s good to see as well.
Beyond that, there are some should-be bangers, a couple emerging prospects I’m happy to get another look at, and the option to enjoy fisticuffs with a nice danish and coffee with all you fellow degenerates.
And yes, I mean that with the utmost affection.
Here are this week’s Punch Drunk Predictions.
Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov
Everything hinges on how hard Gane needs to work in order to take Volkov down and keep him on the canvas.
If the French rising star can take the towering Russian off his feet with minimal effort and great regularity, I think he’ll deploy a wrestling-heavy approach that neutralizes Volkov’s weapons and drastically increases his chances of collecting a victory. If Volkov can keep it standing, particularly by making Gane work hard for takedowns, it’s a different ballgame.
On the feet, things are a lot closer, and Volkov’s long kicks, especially the front kick to the body, will be major weapons. Now, Gane has a three-inch reach advantage, moves well, has a nice offensive arsenal of his own, so by no means is he outgunned if this turns into a kickboxing match. In fact, I think he can use his footwork and fluidity to work a stick-and-move approach and secure another win on the scorecards; it’s just that Volkov has looked more focused and aggressive in his last two outings and standing is a riskier proposition.
Ultimately, I think we see a combination of the two approaches from Gane, who mixed things up enough against Jairzinho Rozenstruik last time out to keep the knockout artist off balance and holstered, leading to a clean sweep of the scorecards. While I think he’ll look to wrestle a little more, I believe Gane’s variety and movement will be enough to secure him the win and keep him entrenched as one of the top contenders in the heavyweight division.
Prediction: Ciryl Gane by unanimous decision
Tanner Boser vs. Ovince Saint Preux
I love this oddball matchup.
Boser wanted a quit turnaround after losing another fight on the cards that he probably should have won while still being the sole person to blame for the setback, while Saint Preux makes his now annual venture to heavyweight, only this time, he’s facing a much less humungous human being, which means he should, in theory, be abler to have a little more success.
My assumption is that this fight is going to look similar to Boser’s bout with Andrei Arlovski, where the two men stood in striking range, picked at each other for 15 minutes, and the Canadian went home disappointed because the judges favored the veteran’s underwhelming offensive output over his underwhelming offensive output. If it goes that way, Saint Preux has the funky striking style and single-shot power to put the burly Bonnyville, Alberta representative on his butt, especially if he’s taking a low-volume approach again.
As much as I love this weird pairing, I don't have as many warm feelings about needing to make a pick because it feels like one of those contests where whatever I say, the opposite is going to happen; like if I say Boser will clinch and wrestle and grind out a decision, OSP will spark him with a high kick 38 seconds in, and if I say OSP will catch him with something heavy at some point, Boser will find a way to out-point him or put him down.
Ugh.
Given the timidity we’ve seen from Boser in the past two fights and Saint Preux’s unique ability to find finishes while delivering limited offence, I’m going to side with the veteran and see what happens.
Prediction: Ovince Saint Preux by TKO
Raoni Barcelos vs. Timur Valiev
Even if I weren’t extremely high on Barcelos as a bantamweight dark horse (which I am), I would be picking him here simply because of how underwhelming I’ve found Valiev to be through his first two UFC appearances.
He started quickly, faded even quicker, and got finished by Trevin Jones in his debut, and while he rebounded by mauling Martin Day, I can’t put a ton of stock in looking terrific against a guy that is 0-4 in the Octagon; you’re supposed to look really good against that guy, especially when you’ve been hyped to the gills for years as Valiev has.
None of that really matters though because skill-for-skill, Barcelos is a better fighter. While he might not be the superior wrestler, he’s solid in the grappling sequences and savvy enough to force Valiev to stand with him, where he has a considerable advantage. The only reason this might not be a major breakthrough moment for Barcelos is because Valiev isn’t an established name.
The Brazilian boxes up the Russian, finishing him inside the distance to secure his sixth straight UFC triumph and 10th straight victory overall to command some attention.
Prediction: Raoni Barcelos by TKO
Andrei Fili vs. Daniel Pineda
Welcome to Long Jab City.
While Pineda has the grit and tenacity to potentially make this a close, grimy affair, the far more likely scenario to me is Fili moving around, sniping with long jabs and timely combinations, busting up the Houston native over the course of 15 minutes to collect a clean sweep of the scorecards.
In his earlier days, this would have been a spot where I would have been worried about Fili trying to do too much and maybe looking to mix it up with Pineda in spots where he shouldn’t, but over the last few years, he’s really polished up his game and become a more sound technician, playing to his strengths and fighting within himself.
As long as he sticks to that blueprint, Fili should earn himself a belated birthday present and a second reason to celebrate on Saturday night.
Prediction: Andre Fili by unanimous decision
Tim Means vs. Nicolas Dalby
This is my main card pick for Fight of the Night, as I think these two will just trade shots for 15 minutes, leaving each other battered and bruised as they hug it up and wait for the judges to render their verdict.
Volume will be the deciding factor here, with Means getting the nod, as he’s always operated with a high output approach, knowing that his best road to victory is overwhelming his opponents with a non-stop barrage of punches and kicks and knees and punches and forward pressure because he’s not a one-shot finisher. Dalby is game as can be and will certainly return fire — he’ll probably even sting Means good a couple times — but the Danish veteran is more of a pick-your-spots striker and will simply get too far behind in terms of accumulated punishment to eke one out on the cards.
The one thing that would be really surprising is if this doesn’t go the distance, as Dalby has never officially been finished, though he was submitted in his bout with Jesse Ronson that was later declared a No Contest, but that felt like an outlier then and does even more now.
Prediction: Tim Means by unanimous decision
Renato Moicano vs. Jai Herbert
This is my little main card upset pick.
As much as Moicano is a Fighter I Can’t Quit, he’s also someone I can’t confidently pick at this juncture either because I think he’s more of a tweener than a true lightweight and Herbert will exploit his reach advantage to get the victory.
Herbert also feels like a victim of his last result clouding the totality of the fight, as his knockout loss to Francisco Trinaldo was the bout where Dan Hardy got all up in Herb Dean’s face because it was a terrible stoppage, which is all anyone really remembers. What I remembered and watched again in preparation for this card, is that Herbert was getting the better of the striking exchanges throughout the first two rounds, especially in the second, before getting cracked and finished.
If he can maintain distance and work from space, forcing Moicano to reach and wade in when he doesn’t really want to, there should be opportunities for “The Black Country Banger” to unload and secure his first UFC victory.
Prediction: Jai Herbert by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Kennedy Nzechukwu def. Danilo Marques
Shavkat Rakhmonov def. Michel Prazeres
Warlley Alves def. Jeremiah Wells
Ike Villanueva def. Marcin Prachnio
Julia Avila def. Julija Stoliarenko
Charles Rosa def. Justin Jaynes
Yancy Medeiros def. Damir Hadzovic
2021 PDP Record: 132-107-2, 3 NC (.541)