UFC Vegas 31: Punch Drunk Predictions
Will Islam Makhachev push his winning streak to eight or can Thiago Moises use this opportunity to usurp his place in the lightweight rankings?
I’ve been trying all week to find a way to frame the downshift from last weekend’s massive UFC 264 pay-per-view to this weekend’s smaller, quieter return to the UFC APEX and here’s where I landed:
UFC 264 is the equivalent of a weekend bender with a group of your friends — you’ve circled it on your calendar months in advance, you’ve made all kinds of plans around it, and the good times start early and carry on deep into the night.
This weekend is having another couple over for a nice dinner and bottle of wine on the patio — you plan it a couple weeks out at most, it’s fairly low key, but still quite enjoyable nonetheless, and you’re wrapping things up at a reasonable hour without any concerns of someone getting arrested.
Everyone is getting tipsy during that weekend bender with a group of friends, even if they swear they’re going to be responsible and not drink too much; it’s just too big an event for those restraints and convictions to hold, but only the real serious drinkers are cracking a third or fourth bottle for that breezy dinner on the veranda, while most are having a glass or two and calling it a night.
Personally, I might have one too many when it comes to this weekend’s fight card because I genuinely like a bunch of the preliminary card fights on Saturday night and have a real interest in each of the five main card bouts, but let’s be honest: no one should be surprised that I tend to get a little more drunk on the smaller cards than most; these are my cards and my people, and I’m here to support them to the fullest.
Who do think will be enjoying a celebratory post-fight beverage?
Keep reading.
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions for UFC Vegas 31.
Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises
The betting odds for this fight feel out of whack, because even though I think Islam Makhachev is the better fighter and going to win, I don’t think he’s so far beyond Thiago Moises that it justifies him being a -600 favorite with the Brazilian standing as a +450 ‘dog.
Makhachev looked outstanding against Drew Dober earlier this year, extending his winning streak to seven with a dominant effort that ended in a third-round submission, and truly does feel like a future contender just waiting for his opportunity to face a Top 5 talent. That being said, Moises is a quality fighter in this own regard, entering on a three-fight winning streak capped by a unanimous decision triumph over Alexander Hernandez in February, and I think he’ll make the surging fighter from Dagestan work for every inch on Saturday.
But ultimately, I do think Makhachev is the superior talent in all realms, and while it’ll be tougher than the line suggests, he will get the job done and push his winning streak to eight.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev by unanimous decision
Marion Reneau vs. Miesha Tate
One is calling it a career and the other is making a comeback, and it makes for an interesting clash in the co-main event.
Reneau looks to end her professional career on a high note, entering on a four-fight slide, while Tate makes the walk for the first time since UFC 205 in New York City, hoping to secure her first victory since claiming the bantamweight title with a fifth-round submission win over Holly Holm. It’s wild because activity suggests Reneau should have a slight edge, just because she’s fought in the last four years, but everything leading up to the fight this week points towards Tate being in tremendous shape and primed to get right back into the thick of the chase.
Count me amongst those who have been sold on Tate being locked in after more than four years away, in part because I spoke with her and Xtreme Couture head coach Eric Nicksick about her return, but also because even after a bunch of time off, I think she’s capable of out-hustling Reneau and getting back into the mix.
Much like the main event, I believe it will be a competitive affair with Tate getting her hand raised and instantly inserting herself into the championship picture in the bantamweight division.
Prediction: Miesha Tate by unanimous decision
Jeremy Stephens vs. Mateusz Gamrot
This one too feels like a little bit of a trap fight for the betting favorite Mateusz Gamrot, who looked great in his sophomore appearance opposite Scott Holtzman earlier this year, and is taking on a guy in Jeremy Stephens that hasn’t won a fight since the start of 2018.
The thing with Stephens’ five-fight slide is that it came exclusively against Top 10 featherweights, arguably Top 5 featherweights, and he had positive moments in every fight, save for his first meeting with Yair Rodriguez that ended 15 seconds in due to an eye poke. What’s going to be interesting to see (at least to me) is where the UFC veteran stands after 33 appearances in the Octagon and 47 career fights, because he’s got finished in his last two fights and you don’t suddenly start taking damage better as you continue to get older.
I think Gamrot is the more complete fighter, but Stephens has sound takedown defence and will be swinging for the fences from the jump, so “Gamer” will need to mind his Ps and Qs and stay technical in order to get the job done. If the 35-year-old “Lil Heathen” has, in fact, reached the point where he just can’t stand up to the punishment that comes from facing top tier talent any more, don’t be surprised if Gamrot gets this one done inside the distance.
Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot by TKO
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Everything about this fight hinges on whether or not Rodolfo Vieira has the ability to hold up if he’s unable to secure a submission finish in the early moments of this contest. He struggled in that realm last time out against “Fluffy” Hernandez and Dustin Stoltzfus is well aware of that fact and eager to capitalize on it this weekend, telling me the following:
His body is so accustomed to grappling fights and you can really see that — he has amazing power and amazing endurance for the length of a grappling fight, but then after that, not really so much anymore. So it’ll be about putting a pace on him and putting a lot of work on him in the first while.
I just need to not let him get comfortable in what he’s doing and try to catch him later on with either a choke or on the feet.
Vieira managed to find submissions against Oskar Piechota and Saparbeg Safarov in his first two UFC appearances, but I think Stoltzfus is better than both of those men and should be able to weather the early storm on Saturday. From there, I think he’ll batter an exhausted Vieira and secure his first UFC victory.
Prediction: Dustin Stoltzfus by TKO
Gabriel Benitez vs. Billy Quarantillo
Violence — I anticipate non-stop, thoroughly entertaining violence from this one because both Gabriel Benitez and Billy Quarantillo bring the goods every time out.
I’m going to side with Benitez here, and not just because he was this week’s Fighter I Can’t Quit. I think this one comes down to impact versus volume, and Benitez has the power advantage, while “Billy Q” is more likely to wear you down over several rounds.
Given that I think they’re going to get after it right out of the chute, I wouldn’t be surprised if Benitez lands something hefty early, attacking the lead leg and then banging home a counter shot in an exchange and connecting with a kick upstairs.
Prediction: Gabriel Benitez by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Daniel Rodriguez def. Preston Parsons
Amanda Lemos def. Montserrat Ruiz
Khalid Taha def. Sergey Morozov
Miles Johns def. Anderson dos Santos
Malcolm Gordon def. Francisco Figueiredo
Rodrigo Nascimento def. Alan Baudot
2021 PDP Record: 148-115-2, 4 NC (.550)