UFC Vegas 35: Punch Drunk Predictions
Striking standouts and twin TUF finales headline Saturday's show, but who will emerge victorious?
As we draw closer to the home stretch of the 2021 UFC calendar, I’ve thought a great deal about my lofty ambition to hit on 70 percent of my picks this year and my current position just above 55 percent heading into this weekend.
While being 15 percent shy of my target stinks, I’m actually not all that salty about things because have you seen how many coin-flip fights there are every weekend?
Last week’s event didn’t feature a single fight where there was a 2:1 favorite if I’m remembering correctly, and the only favorite greater than that at UFC 265 was Ciryl Gane; everything else was ultra-close and ultra-competitive, and so getting it right more than 50 percent of the time still feels like a reasonable accomplishment.
But that doesn’t mean I’m settling or content — I still strive for perfect events and greater than 70 percent success rates on the regular; I’ve just accepted that picking fights is difficult, and has been more slightly more difficult this year, and I shouldn’t be so hard on myself when I go .500 or have the odd real bad night.
Hopefully, we have a good night on Saturday.
Here are my picks.
Edson Barboza vs. Giga Chikadze
This is one of those instances where I’m siding with logic, but doing so fully aware that I might be made to look like a complete idiot.
Logic tells me Barboza wins this fight — he’s vastly more experienced, has been in great form since moving to featherweight, and has the speed and savvy to deal with the array of kicks that will surely come his way. He’s a step up in competition for the streaking Chikadze, and I think he’s closer to being a contender at ‘45 than he is to being the “Gatekeeper to Contention,” which puts him a notch or two above Chikadze at the moment for me.
I say all that knowing that the Kings MMA product might just walk out and fold him over with a kick to the liver like he did to Cub Swanson or wear him out over 25 minutes, but my head tells me to side with guy I’ve seen succeed in these types of spots before and I’m going to listen.
Prediction: Edson Barboza by unanimous decision
Bryan Battle vs. Gilbert Urbina
Had this been the matchup all along, I might have been more torn on who to pick, but with Urbina tagging in late to replace Tresean Gore, I believe this will be a relatively clean victory for Battle.
The 26-year-old looked good throughout the season and is the more complete fighter, as he showed in the house. While Urbina is a good grappler and has a little bit of pop, he’s also a little shaky defensively on the feet and too willing to trade in spots where he should be avoiding exchanges. And with Battle having solid defensive wrestling and the ability to hunt submissions, I’m not sure I see a path to victory for Urbina on short notice this weekend.
Battle knows how to play to his strengths and use his weapons effectively, and I think we see that here — range striking, distance maintenance, and capitalizing when an opportunity to finish presents itself.
Prediction: Bryan Battle by TKO
Ricky Turcios vs. Brady Hiestand
I had a lot more trouble figuring this one out because while Turcios has experience and a more well-rounded skill set in his favor, Hiestand might just be one of those dudes that has grown by leaps and bounds since the show wrapped and be able to bulldoze him with wrestling and pressure.
The thing I kept coming back to was that each of Turcios’ fights in the house went the distance and were decided in the third round. On one hand, kudos to him for doing what it took to win over those final five minutes, but at the same time, it means he lets guys hang around, and I’m not sure that something he wants to do with Hiestand, who is young and raw, but has the potential to be a dominant positional grappler here and going forward.
I know that Vince Murdock’s knee was jacked up in his semifinal loss to Hiestand and that limited his ability to do anything once the fight hit the canvas, but I’m not sure he was doing anything even if he were completely healthy; that’s how strong Hiestand looked. Now with a full camp to prepare for Turcios’ style and work a little more on managing his gas tank, I think the 22-year-old comes out and stamps himself as a future breakout candidate by joining fellow Spokane natives Michael Chiesa and Julianna Pena in the role call of Ultimate Fighter winners.
Prediction: Brady Hiestand by unanimous decision
Kevin Lee vs. Daniel Rodriguez
I think Rodriguez pulls the upset here, and I’m not sure it’s going to be particularly close either.
Lee has an abundance of talent, but he’s not a welterweight, and even with a three-inch reach advantage, it’s the overall size difference and strength difference that will be really telling here, not to mention that Rodriguez is a high-output, high-accuracy striker that is going to stick his jab in Lee’s face immediately and follow with the booming left hand that he likes a lot too.
Lee’s best path to victory is to wrestle, but I just can’t see him coming back off a lengthy layoff and sticking to the fundamentals, which means he’ll get sucked into a striking battle and lose because Rodriguez simply works at a much higher clip and will have much more pop on his punches than the natural lightweight.
This is one of those instances where the more well-known fighter has been installed as the betting favorite, but the underdog had been the far more active, far more successful fighter of the two, and I think it’s a recipe for cashing tickets on Rodriguez on Saturday night.
Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez by unanimous decision
Andre Petrovski vs. Michael Gillmore
This is a squash match.
Gillmore is a 34-year-old that has never faced anyone with more than five career fights, and he’s lost three of those encounters. I appreciate his passion for the sport and desire to chase his dreams, but it’s not like he’s been out here racking up title wins against quality competition on the regional circuit before quitting his job to go all-in on maybe getting tabbed to be a replacement on TUF this season. It worked out, so more power to him, I guess, but he also got dominated in that fight and he’s likely to get dominated here.
I’m not necessarily sold on Petroski being someone with even Top 15 upside, but he has a clear path to victory here through his wrestling and I would be shocked — SHOCKED — if he didn’t finish this inside the opening round.
Prediction: Andre Petroski by submission
Makhmud Muradov vs. Gerald Meerschaert
I really like Meerschaert as a guy you can have success playing as an underdog from time-to-time, but this isn’t one of those times.
Muradov is on a different level than “GM3” and I don’t think it’s going to take too long for that to become evident on Saturday. The streaking “Czech from Uzbekistan” as he describes himself has very good striking and should be able to pick Meerschaert apart from range while avoiding any attempts by the veteran middleweight to grapple.
After going into the third round before getting the finish in each of his last two assignments, I think Muradov makes even more of a statement here, finishing before the second is out, if not sooner.
Prediction: Makhmud Muradov by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Alessio Di Chirico def. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Sam Alvey def. Wellington Turman
Dustin Jacoby def. Darren Stewart
JJ Aldrich def. Vanessa Demopoulos
Pat Sabatini def. Jamall Emmers
Mana Martinez def. Guido Cannetti
2021 PDP Record: 179-139-3, 4 NC (.551)