UFC Vegas 36: Punch Drunk Predictions
Who will have their hand raised in Saturday's middleweight main event?
What’s not to like about a tidy 10-fight lineup that kicks off at 10:30am PST on Saturday?
Five prelims, followed by five main card pairings, all wrapped up by three in the afternoon, give or take 20 minutes, leaving you the entire evening to do whatever you do when there aren’t fights to watch all evening, and the lead in will most likely have been really entertaining and enjoyable.
In the immortal words of Frank “The Tank” Ricard, that sounds like “a nice little Saturday,” and there is definitely time to squeeze a quick trip to Home Depot or Bed, Bath, & Beyond in there before the action gets underway if you’re so inclined.
Besides the adjusted start time and compact fight card, this is a genuinely interesting lineup to me, one filled with talented, young hopefuls in solid tests, a couple elite prospects looking to continue their climbs up their respective divisional ladders, and a compelling main event where both principals could really use a big showing to take another step forward in the title chase.
It should be fun.
Here’s how I think things shake out.
Derek Brunson vs. Darren Till
I have three different versions of this fight playing in my head as I sit here trying to figure out how it ultimately goes down, with each ending at a different time:
A) If it ends in the first, it’s Darren Till getting a stoppage
B) If it ends in the middle stanzas, it’s Derek Brunson using his wrestling and finding a finish
C) If it ends late or goes the distance, it’s Darren Till making adjustments and rallying to win
We haven’t seen Till working towards a blitzing, early finish in a couple of fights and he hasn’t earned such a stoppage since his win over Donald Cerrone, but Brunson has been prone to getting clipped and sorted out before getting settled in, so if “The Gorilla” actually wanted to press early, I think there is a path to victory available to him.
When Brunson is at his best, he’s timing his entries and chain wrestling, then applying a ton of pressure from top position. He’s not someone that is going to work towards a submission specifically, and he can be a little inactive in terms of ground-and-pound, but both are viable options for him, especially with the way Till tends to work his get-ups and Brunson understanding that he’s going to need to put it on the Scouser in order to maintain those advantageous positions and potentially get him out of there.
Where this gets real interesting to me is if we get through four rounds because Brunson has never been a big “go to the scorecards” guy and he has a penchant for getting tired in the late stages. Ironically, while Till often gets framed as a stalking finisher, he’s actually been the distance in six out of his 10 UFC appearances, including five-round decisions opposite Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Robert Whittaker. So if we get into the fifth round, I feel like we’re looking at either 3-1 Brunson or 2-2 and the fifth decides it, and in that scenario, I actually favor Till, who came on strong in the final round of his fight with Thompson and has a much better potential for hunting down a finish late if he needs one or winning the round to break the tie and get the nod on the cards.
The more I think about it, the more I lean towards Option C as my selection.
I think this will look similar to Brunson’s fight with Kevin Holland, with the veteran wrestling well early and neutralizing Till’s weapons for two or three rounds, but once fatigue starts to set in, the Brit will come roaring back. I think Till knows there is a little more at stake in this one than just another victory and I believe that will propel him to a come-from-behind victory on Saturday night.
Prediction: Darren Till by TKO, late
Tom Aspinall vs. Serghei Spivac
Serghei Spivac is a better fighter and tougher than I ever want to give him credit for, and I know that. You don’t win three straight in the big boy ranks, including a decision nod over Aleksei Oleinik last time out, while being a scrub, and I want to acknowledge that in advance… because I think he’s gonna get whooped here.
As solid as Spivac is, I believe Aspinall is the real deal and on the way to being a perennial title contender. He has all the tools, he has the right mindset, and physically, he has a lot of natural gifts that make all the other things even more dangerous and powerful.
While I don’t think we get a 70-second mauling comparable to what Aspinall averaged in his first two UFC appearances, I believe this one will look similar to what we saw from the Team Kaobon representative last time out opposite Andrei Arlovski — good movement in space, sharp striking, quality grappling when needed, and a finish.
A fourth straight victory puts Aspinall in the Top 10 and should have everyone paying close attention to the rising contender from the Greater Manchester area.
Prediction: Tom Aspinall by TKO
Alex Morono vs David Zawada
The spots where Morono has gotten in trouble in the past have been against dynamic strikers that can make him pay for coming forward aggressively and leaving his chin exposed, and as much as I like Zawada’s all-around game, we haven't seen that from him to this point in his UFC career.
I do think we get a competitive fight, as both guys are solid on the canvas and Zawada isn’t going to wilt under early pressure from “The Great White,” but in the end, I think Morono will be far more effective in all stages and secure a second consecutive victory on Saturday night.
Prediction: Alex Morono by unanimous decision
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
This one has the potential to be electric, as both men possess the kind of power to short circuit the other’s central nervous system in a hurry and tend be go looking for those kinds of blows right out of the chute. But I think their similar struggles of late will have each man a little more patient, a little more measured, which means we’re going to get a more drawn out gun fight instead.
For Rountree to win, he needs to get back to blasting leg kicks and setting up his hands, as he did against Eryk Anders, which remains his signature outing in the UFC. I know the knockout of Gohkan Saki was dope and surprising, but that drubbing of Anders is why “The War Horse” is part of the “Fighters I Can’t Quit” brigade. Conversely, I believe Bukauskas needs to pressure and throw more volume, working variety and levels, rather than looking for kill shots, and his slight height and reach advantages should help him in that regard.
My read on Bukauskas is that he’s one of these very good former regional champions who just isn’t quite ready for prime time yet, and I think that will show through here. Rountree is the more dynamic athlete and I believe his significant edge in UFC experience will play a part in this one, as finds a balance between the hyper-aggressiveness of his early appearances and the overly-patient approach he displayed last time to deliver a strong showing and get back into the win column.
Prediction: Khalil Rountree Jr. by TKO
Paddy Pimblett vs. Luigi Vendramini
Normally in a situation like this where someone is debuting, carrying a ton of hype, and facing a solid initial test, I’d get a little worried about the debutant being too amped up and running onto something funky, but that’s not the case here.
Pimblett isn’t someone that has gotten stuck with too many big shots during his Cage Warriors days and lost decisions, rather than getting stopped in the rare instances when he was defeated. While Vendramini has some pop and can find a finish, he was extremely sluggish out of the gate last time and I’m not sure coming at “Paddy the Baddy” guns blazing is the best course of action, as the Liverpool lad is good at making you pay for mistakes.
While I do think we’ll see a little too much excited energy from Pimblett right as the fight begins, I believe he’ll settle in quickly and justify the hype with a strong showing and a dominant victory in his debut this weekend.
Prediction: Paddy Pimblett by unanimous decision
Preliminary Card Picks
Ji Yeon Kim def. Molly McCann
Jack Shore def. Liudvik Sholinian
Charles Jourdain def. Julian Erosa
Dalcha Lungiambula def. Marc-Andre Barriault
Marcelo Rojo def. Jonathan Martinez
2021 PDP Record: 186-144-3, 4 NC (.552)