UFC Vegas 38 Fighter to Watch: Casey O'Neill
Unbeaten emerging flyweight squares off with Antonina Shevchenko in critical step up pairing on Saturday
Name: Casey O’Neill
Nickname: King
Record: 7-0 overall, 2-0 UFC
Division: Flyweight
Team: Xtreme Couture
Opponent: Antonina Shevchenko (9-3 overall, 3-3 UFC)
There are a lot of reasons to be excited about what Casey O’Neill brings to the cage and her prospects going forward.
The 23-year-old has already earned a pair of UFC stoppage victories and needed to navigate some rough waters in order to secure that second finish, battling hard against Brazilian Lara Procopio before finally submitting her just before the three-minute mark of the third round of their fight in June.
While not a big name by any stretch, Procopio is one of those fighters that diehard followers of the sport know is a tough out, as her only loss came by split decision up at bantamweight opposite Karol Rosa. She followed that up with a unanimous decision victory over fan favorite Molly McCann in her flyweight debut, and entered the bout with O’Neill as the favorite, yet there was the Scottish-born prospect, running level with her through the first two rounds before pulling away and collecting the finish a little over halfway through the final round.
Wins like that are moments that stick out in my mind because it’s the kind of fight that usually differentiates future contenders from middle of the pack prospects as they’re climbing the ranks, and O’Neill handled herself exceptionally well, showing a diverse skill set and the kind of toughness and tenacity she’ll need in order to keep working her way up the divisional ladder. It’s the kind of win that people would be fawning over if O’Neill had more buzz or came off the Contender Series, or folks paid closer attention to the women’s flyweight ranks and fights taking place outside of the Top 15 because it’s honestly as good a victory, if not better, than some of Sean O’Malley’s initial triumphs inside the Octagon that people treated like colossal achievements.
O’Neill has the chance to force her way into the divisional conversation and garner some of that attention this weekend as she takes a step up in competition to face off with Antonina Shevchenko, the elder sister of divisional queen Valentina Shevchenko, and a much more experienced, more polished fighter.
Though she has been inconsistent since arriving in the UFC, the 36-year-old Shevchenko has already made six trips into the Octagon and logged a dozen professional appearances, not to mention innumerable kickboxing and Muay Thai fights, while flashing enough skills to be someone that resides in the lower third of the rankings or just outside. Between the totality of her experience and training every day with one of the best fighters on the planet, Shevchenko should be a very good litmus test for the Las Vegas-based prospect this weekend.
After being positioned as the underdog against Procopio, O’Neill is currently listed as a -210 favourite against Shevchenko this weekend, which means at least the oddsmakers recognize her upside and put a great deal of stock in her last two outings. While her debut win over Shana Dobson was impressive, it was also a one-sided affair against an overmatched foe, as O’Neill took her to the ground with relative ease and dominated, landing at an incredibly high clip to secure the second-round stoppage.
But that win over Procopio in June was different — she got hit with some big shots, had to deal with being muscled around in the clinch and on the ground at times, and generally got pushed in a manner that can break less confident, less focused fighters. Not only did she navigate those difficult patches, but O’Neill almost always responded with offence of her own, never allowing the Brazilian to build too much momentum and holding steady until her superior cardio became a difference-maker and she was able to work to the finish.
We all know that MMA Math isn’t a real thing and it’s unfair to draw too many conclusions from one fighter’s record and apply them to someone else… however, Shevchenko has lost to the three best fighters she has faced thus far inside the Octagon — Roxanne Modafferi, Katlyn Chookagian, and Andrea Lee — while beating Ji Yeon Kim, Lucie Pudilvoa, and Ariane Lipski, who are a combined 8-13 in the UFC.
I’m not saying the outcome of this fight automatically dictates where O’Neill fits within the division, but it sure does feel like it will really help clarify things, especially given how Shevchenko’s UFC career has played out thus far and where those competitors that have gotten the better of her currently stand in the 125-pound hierarchy.
And even if O’Neill stumbles, she’s already reached the UFC and registered a pair of stoppage wins, all before her 24th birthday, which comes five days after this fight with Shevchenko. Worst case, she’s 2-1 with a loss to a gatekeeper, which is far from the end of the world, especially for someone that has shown a ton of promise, and is surrounding by a great team.
But if she comes away from the weekend with a third straight win, be ready to hear people talking about O’Neill in the same breath as Maycee Barber and Miranda Maverick as Top 15 fixtures and future contenders in the flyweight division.