UFC Vegas 39: A Deserving Main Event, A Bunch of Intriguing Names
Saturday's card feels like it is going to be dismissed, but several of the names set to compete carry some long-term potential
Just a couple weeks removed from a loaded pay-per-view and with two more stacked lineups on the calendar for October 30 and November 6, events like this weekend’s matinee slate at the UFC APEX are bound to get the “nothing to see here” treatment from a great number of people.
The fact that last weekend’s main card failed to deliver the kind of exciting action and major takeaways most people were expecting doesn’t help matters either, as the vibe coming out of one show often has an impact on how everyone is feeling heading into the next event on the docket.
If everyone comes away feeling great, energized by entertaining fights and given plenty to talk about, that momentum carries over into coverage of the following week’s event. But if the last few fights land with a thud and leave the majority of fans and observers feeling like they wasted their time, the general dissatisfaction permeates how they view the upcoming fight card, and when said card is light on established names, it becomes difficult to garner much positive attention and discussion.
As I said, this is going to be one of those cars the vast majority of people declare devoid of anything interesting, save for perhaps the main event, but even that feels like one of those fights far too many people are going to downplay, largely because we’ve already seen it happen the last time Marina Rodriguez was tasked with headlining a Fight Night event.
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Earlier this spring, the UFC cobbled together a main event matchup between Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson for its May 8 event in Las Vegas, pitting the ranked strawweights opposite one another in a flyweight engagement after the original main event between Cory Sandhagen and TJ Dillashaw was delayed when the former bantamweight champ Dillashaw suffered a gnarly cut in training.
On the same day Dillashaw announced his injury, the card also lost a bout between Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone and Diego Sanchez, prompting Twitter to light up with comments about how the upcoming card was — to quote my friend Shakiel Mahjouri — “looking thinnnnnn.”
Except it wasn’t, really.
It short on massive names and lost a highly anticipated bantamweight clash that exceeded expectations when it happened a couple months later, but the card itself was still quite good, and ended up being one of those shows that folks downplayed all the way up until Saturday, and then raved about as soon as it was over, including changing their tunes on Rodriguez, who out-worked Waterson over five rounds to claim her second win of 2021.
Going into the event, it was “Why is this the main event?” like having a pair of Top 10 talents coming off a win and the biggest name on the card (Waterson) headlining on ESPN was some kind of confusing decision.
Coming out of the event, it was “What a great moment for Marina Rodriguez, who did everything right and is very much in the title picture now!” which is cool, but would have been even better before the majority of loudest voices covering this sport downplayed the significance of the fight and the card as a whole.
I expect a lot of the same to happen over the next few days, followed by a Saturday afternoon filled with conversations to be about the impressive outings that transpired, the new names to track that emerged, and how the main event victor is one win away from challenging for championship gold.
I hope I’m wrong.
I hope more trendsetters and tastemakers in this space see the value and long-term potential of this card and advocate for fans to enjoy brunch with a side of face-punching on Saturday.
But just in case they don’t, keep reading to find out all you need to know.
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Saturday’s card isn’t as deep as that May event I spoke about earlier, but the main event is better, as Rodriguez returns to take on Mackenzie Dern in a pivotal pairing in the strawweight division.
Dern is ranked fourth in the division and riding a four-fight winning streak, with three submission finishes, most recently tapping Nina Nunes in the first round of their fight in April. The 28-year-old continues to develop into the potential title challenger many forecasted her to become when she transitioned into this sport following an outstanding BJJ career, and with a victory on Saturday, Dern would emerge as one of the most interesting first-time title contenders in the UFC.
Rodriguez remains an underrated standpoint in a division where a collection of established names and emerging threats garner the lion’s share of the attention. She started the year by stopping one of those up-and-coming favorites, Amanda Ribas, and is a couple close, debated rounds away from being 7-0 in the UFC, rather than 4-1-2.
With Rose Namajunas and Zhang Weili set to run it back on November 6 in New York City, and Carla Esparza waiting in the wings, the winner of this one will still need to do a little more work before landing a championship opportunity, especially if Zhang evens things up with Namajunas and a third fight is made. But depending on the outcome and how others in the upper tier of talent in the division are booked, there are a number of intriguing permutations that could come together for either woman, each of whom would be on an impressive winning streak.
This is No. 4 versus No. 6 in the division, which is an undeniably important matchup regardless of which weight class we’re talking about, including some of the shallower ones.
Here’s what comparable pairings look like across the remaining divisions:
Flyweight: Jennifer Maia vs. Joanne Calderwood
Flyweight: Alex Perez vs. Kai Kara-France
Bantamweight: Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya
Bantamweight: Rob Font vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Featherweight: Chan Sung Jung vs. Arnold Allen
Lightweight: Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson
Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Jorge Masvidal
Middleweight: Derek Brunson vs. Sean Strickland
Light Heavyweight: Anthony Smith vs. Dominick Reyes
Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Each of those fights carry a great deal of significance within their respective divisions, and some are absolute bangers. We just saw the heavyweight pairing featured on the main card of UFC 266, and the rest of them could easily do the same.
While some would bristle at a couple of these pairings being positioned as Fight Night main events, the majority are big enough fights with big enough names or ascendant fighters to merit that distinction, much like this weekend’s headlining act.
Dern and Rodriguez have done more recently, and beaten better competition than the majority of their parallel contemporaries in different divisions, so if you would get hyped for “The Korean Zombie” versus Arnold Allen or recognize the significance of Derek Brunson taking on Sean Strickland, make sure to carry that over to this weekend’s main event matchup.
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As I said earlier, the rest of Saturday’s card isn’t as deep and impactful as that May event Rodriguez headlined opposite Waterson, but it’s not without some intriguing names.
Randy Brown is 3-1 in his last four fights, with his only loss coming to Vicente Luque. He’s earned finishes in each of those contests and just might be starting to put everything together.
Tim Elliott is 2-0 since reconnecting with James Krause, while Matheus Nicolau fought Manel Kape close earlier this year, earning a favorable decision many disagreed with. Regardless, this is a quality flyweight scrap that carries real divisional ramifications.
Mariya Agapova still intrigues me, even though she crashed and burned last time out. Writing off a 24-year-old with obvious upside and tons of swagger following one bad performance feels like a mistake.
Phillip Hawes is my Fighter to Watch this week and someone that could crack the Top 15 in the not too distant future. In a division like middleweight where Nos. 8-15 feel fairly evenly matched, a couple more wins puts “Megatron” in the thick of the chase.
Chris Gutierrez is unbeaten in his last five and another quality name in the deep collection of talent assembled at bantamweight right now.
Alexander Romanov is a 30-year-old heavyweight with a 14-0 record, including three straight victories in the UFC. The last one was suspect, sure, but the first two showed his potential to be the successor to Aleksei Oleinik as the ranked heavyweight with a nasty submission game who becomes a Top 15 staple.
And Loopy Godinez dropped a split decision to Jessica Penne in her promotional debut, but is too talented to dismiss after a single, debatable decision loss.
At least two of the six unranked fighters above will be in the Top 15 in their respective weight classes in the next 8-12 months, max, and the winner of the Elliott-Nicolau fight will be in the hunt at flyweight heading into next year.
I know tracking stuff like this over time is challenging and following an emerging fighter over three, four, five fights on their way up the divisional ladder is difficult, but this is how up-and-coming names build momentum and breakout stars don’t end up feeling like they came out of nowhere.
Half of the current UFC titleholders began their careers on the prelims, in the shadows, and the five that debuted on the main card included two Ultimate Fighter finalist (Rose Namajunas, Kamaru Usman), two established names in international markets (Jan Blachowicz, Alex Volkanovski), a short-notice replacement who jumped into a main card opportunity (Brandon Moreno).
All of them have fought on cards like this one, in less glamorous matchups at one point or another, and climbed to the top of their divisions. Maybe no one from this card follows suit, but someone from one of these dismissed or disregarded events is going to again in the next couple years, at which point scores of people will be wondering where they came from.
They came from a card like this — an event with a quality main event and a collection of intriguing names.