UFC Vegas 39: Punch Drunk Predictions
An early start and a competitive slate makes for a thoroughly enjoyable Saturday inside the Octagon
This feels like one of those cards where I’m either going to keep running hot (20-4, 1 NC over the last two cards) or crash and burn in spectacular fashion, and I have to admit, I kind of like the volatility.
Don’t get me wrong: I want to keep running hot, because I want to finish strong, get up above .600 for the year, and feel like I’m back on track after a real tumultuous first eight months of the year… but I still dig these ultra-competitive cards where there are three or four or more fights that feel like genuine coin flips that make the difference between going 7-3 and 3-7.
What makes it even cooler to me is that it’s not a bunch of “heart vs. head” picks where there is a logical choice and a sentimental choice and I do the internal tug-of-war between being smart and being hopeful; these are just straight up competitive fights that I honestly and truly could see going either way, and that always excites me, even though it means I might fail miserably when it comes to figuring out who is going to get their hand raised on Saturday afternoon.
With all that said, let’s get after it, shall we?
Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez
Yeah, I’m taking Rodriguez.
Dern has done exceptionally well in her last four fights, collecting three finishes and four victories to climb to No. 4 in the rankings, but there is something about her style combined with the overall threats Rodriguez presents over a potential five-round fight that has been siding with the underdog here.
I think Rodriguez has faced and beaten better competition than Dern during their UFC careers, and that’s not just because Dern lost to Amanda Ribas and Rodriguez stopped her in January, though it’s certainly noteworthy. I thought the Brazilian did enough to beat Carla Esparza despite spending the final round on her back, and I don’t know if Dern is polished enough to contend with someone as dangerous in the clinch and transition spaces while standing as Rodriguez to not get picked apart and pieced up in a 25-minute fight.
Now, Dern could certainly come out and capitalize on an early mistake, snatching up another finish, but watching them both closely over the last couple years, I haven’t seen Rodriguez make the same kind of mistakes that led to Randa Markos and Nina Nunes getting dominated on the ground and ultimately submitted. She’s better in the clinch than anyone Dern has faced to date, and has proven herself capable of going five rounds at a good clip, albeit up a division, last time out.
My thinking is that Dern comes out looking to clinch and grapple, gets stung with a few good shots, and loses a bit of that aggressiveness with each passing round, with Rodriguez either stopping her late or winning a decision going away.
Prediction: Marina Rodriguez by TKO, late
Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden
I’ve been writing all week about how I think Brown has really been starting to put things together nicely and turn a corner in his career, and I believe this fight will be one where those steady improvements and evolution really show through.
For once, he’s not going to have a considerable reach advantage, as despite having three inches of height on Gooden, Brown’s reach is just an inch longer. What he does have, however, is an edge in diversity, between throwing an assortment of kicks and looking to grapple, which Gooden struggled with against Abubakar Nurmagomedov.
My expectation is that Gooden’s aggressiveness works against him, with Brown cutting angles, changing levels, and doing quality work from top positioning, forcing “Nite Train” to make the best of a bad situation, and eventually give up his back. Brown has learned how to avoid prolonged exchanges and wait for his opportunities, and I think he’ll find one in the second half of the fight, turning an opening into another finish and a second straight win.
Prediction: Randy Brown by submission
Tim Elliott vs. Matheus Nicolau
Here’s another one of those “could go either way” pairings where I think I have a good read on how things are going to play out, but still might end up looking like a total idiot.
While I was initially alarmed to see that Nicolau has 100% takedown defence in the UFC, a little further research revealed that as great as that number looks, it means he’s stayed upright all four times opponents have tried to take him down over the five fights that contribute to his numbers at UFCstats.com. That’s important because I think Elliott is going to look to wrestle where and when he can, and getting Nicolau on the deck is the path to victory I envision for the former title challenger.
I genuinely believe that Elliott is a different fighter when he’s working with James Krause and against a relatively low output opponent like Nicolau, I think the Glory MMA & Fitness head man will have his charge fired up, full of energy, and brimming with confidence, resulting in a tactically aggressive, style-blending effort from Elliott on Saturday night.
I don’t even think Elliott needs to be super-effective with his takedowns to win — he just needs to be relentless with them, using the attempts as a way to neutralize Nicolau’s output, force him to defend, and expend energy along the fence. I know Elliott can go three hard rounds and hold up, but I’m not sure that is the case for the Brazilian, and I believe the veteran will expose that this weekend.
Prediction: Tim Elliott by unanimous decision
Sabina Mazo vs. Mariya Agapova
I’m a sucker for upside, so while I know I should probably take Mazo, let me go ahead and ride with Agapova and see what happens.
Mazo is a volume striker and has won each of her last three starts at flyweight, but there isn’t anything overly dynamic about her approach. She picks away at you, mixing in kicks, and piling up more than 100 significant strikes in each of those three UFC victories. But Agapova is also a volume striker, at times to her own detriment, with the difference being (IMO) that her southpaw stylings and overall athleticism makes her more of a threat to land something that impacts the tenor and tempo of the contest.
If — and this is a colossal if — Agapova has learned to manage her energy and output a little, I think she can replicate the performance Alexis Davis turned in opposite Mazo earlier this year, being the quick, sharper striker in a fight built on exchanges at range, and capitalizing on a finishing opportunity if one is presented to her.
Maybe I’m a sucker, but I think the 24-year-old from Kazakhstan still has heaps of upside and if she’s grown at all in the last year, she has the skills to secure a victory here.
Prediction: Mariya Agapova by unanimous decision
Phillip Hawes vs. Chris Curtis
Well this is a curveball.
I went to sleep last night with Hawes facing Deron Winn, and woke up this morning to him facing Chris Curtis, whom a lot of people are getting very up in their feelings about now that he’s getting a short-notice UFC opportunity.
Maybe I’m cold and too much of a pragmatist or realist, but I just don’t get the whole “What a great story!” angle to all this. Here’s the quick version of what folks seem to love about Curtis landing here:
he didn’t get a contract on Contender Series and retired (for six months)
came back, lost a fight, retired again (for a couple hours)
the guy that beat him got sick and couldn’t fight, so he got another opportunity right away, lost that one too, retired once more (for three months)
he’s won four straight since returning again, including three this year, and now he gets to stand in for Winn opposite Hawes
He’s the poster child for Sean Sheehan’s “MMA Retirements Never Stick” campaign and while I’m always happy to see someone make a living doing what they love, this feels a little like… you know what? Never mind. I don’t want to be the asshole again. Lemme just say I don’t get the big “such an incredible story” element to this so many others seem to be flocking to, and I think he’s going to get wiped out by Hawes.
Prediction: Phillip Hawes by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Chris Gutierrez def. Felipe Colares
Alexander Romanov def. Jared Vanderaa
Damon Jackson def. Charles Rosa
Loopy Godinez def. Silvana Juarez
Steve Garcia def. Charlie Ontiveros
2021 PDP Record: 218-158-4, 5 NC (.566)