UFC Vegas 40: Punch Drunk Predictions
After a solid three-week run, can we keep the good times rolling with Saturday's competitive card at the UFC APEX?
Sorry I haven’t written more this week — took a couple days to look after some assignments that were piling up and spend a little less time on the computer, you know, for mental health sake, so One Question and 10 Things got shelved for this one.
But I couldn’t skip writing this one because after stating I wanted to have a quality run to close out 2021 and get closer to .600 on the season, that’s precisely what started happening.
Over the last three events, my picks have gone 28-5 with 1 No Contest, good for an .826 win percentage.
I’m far from the only one that has enjoyed success over these last three shows — my fellow Canadian Cody Saftic, who is a much sharper bettor than me, nailed back-to-back perfect parlays to kick off this run — and these events have featured only a handful of upsets, so it’s not like I’ve been giving you underdogs galore. Although…
Mariya Agapova and Marina Rodriguez were nice little underdogs last week, Casey O’Neill and Stephanie Egger were the week before, and Jonathan Pearce was to open UFC 266 as well, so that’s five solid dogs in three weeks.
All this talk about how well I’ve been doing is likely going to lead to a miserable week one of these days, and this could be the card as Saturday’s slate is full of competitive fights involving fighters with limit info to pull from when making these selections.
But I think I said something similar last week and everything worked out there, so here we go again.
Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont
Aspen Ladd was the first one on the scale this morning, and that’s kind of all I needed to know.
I think the 26-year-old is an outstanding talent who has out-grown competing in the 135-pound weight class, and while I know she still has her heart set on moving between the two divisions, depending on what the UFC has available for her, I would not be at all surprised to see her shine here and have a title shot waiting for her in 2022. Sitting out another 7-9 months waiting for Amanda Nunes to be ready to defend the belt might not be that appealing to her, but given how terrible she looked a couple weeks back, I just don’t see any reason for her to go down to bantamweight again in hopes of securing a fight with… Amanda Nunes.
Dumont has looked solid in her last two fights and is better than her debut loss to Megan Anderson otherwise indicates, but I think skill-for-skill, talent-for-talent, Ladd is the superior fighter, and gets the job done by pushing a rugged pace and roughing up the Brazilian from the outset, finishing in the second half of the fight.
Prediction: Aspen Ladd by TKO
Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe
In fights like this, where I’m 100% certain about what one person brings to the table and what to expect, and completely unsure about where the other one fits, I tend to side with the more sure thing, which means I’m Team Arlovski here.
Felipe might be a legitimate name to track in the heavyweight division — he’s won three straight, has shown flashes of solid boxing, plus some toughness and moxie – but he also might be someone that has benefitted from a couple shaky decisions and fought too close with guys that aren’t really making any headway in the division for me to pick him over Arlovski.
Say what you will about the old warhorse, but the former heavyweight champion has settled into his role as the veteran you have to beat if you want to move closer to the Top 15, and he’s kept more than a couple people from taking that step in the last couple years. He’s impossible to count out and dismiss, and too savvy and experienced for me to believe he gets beaten by Felipe here.
Prediction: Andrei Arlovski by unanimous decision (with Felipe making the “How did I lose that?” face when the decision is read)
Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez
Look — Miller is in the twilight of his career, but he’s still a tough cuss with all the tools to get the better of promotional newcomers like Gonzalez.
It’s easy to look at the wins and losses and say, “He’s been struggling lately,” and that’s certainly true, but losing to Joe Solecki, Vinc Pichel, and Scott Holtzman in three of your last four fights isn’t exactly “he’s lost it and shouldn’t be stepping in the cage any more” territory. Plus, all three of those fights went the distance, so it’s not like Miller has shown a diminished ability to take punishment like some of his few remaining contemporaries.
Gonzalez profiles, to me, as a solid Triple A fighter — a guy that can do reasonably well, as he has, a notch below the big leagues, where he’s struggled against the best competition he’s faced thus far. He’s tough to put away, so this is going to be a grind, but I believe Miller has more than enough left in the tank to get back in the win column here and stay on track to make his 40th walk to the Octagon some time next year.
Prediction: Jim Miller by unanimous decision
Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
I think Fiorot is a problem.
Not a “going to beat Valentina Shevchenko” type of problem, but potentially a “capable of putting it on anyone in the Top 15” type of problem, and I think we’ll see that shine through here against Silva.
Fiorot has flourished against a pair of overmatched opponents thus far, but her approach, her technique, her physicality in a division where physicality can be a real difference-maker makes her stand out for me. Yes, she looked particularly towering and domineering against Tabatha Ricci, who competes at strawweight next week, but Victoria Leonardo is a legit flyweight and Fiorot marched her down, pieced her up, and made a statement, and I think she can do the same here.
Bueno Silva has been okay through four UFC appearances, but clearly needs to get the action to the ground if she wants to have a real chance to win, and I don’t think that will come easy to her here (if at all) given Fiorot’s understanding of and ability to dictate range. The Brazilian gets forced to look for points of entry from the outside and “The Beast” lights her up.
Prediction: Manon Fiorot by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Bruno Silva def. Andrew Sanchez
Ramazan Emeev def. Danny Roberts
Loopy Godinez def. Luana Carolina (for her second win in as many weeks)
Ludovit Klein def. Nate Landwehr
Danaa Batgerel def. Brandon Davis
Ariane Carnelossi def. Istela Nunes
2021 PDP Record: 226-159-4, 5 NC (.574)