UFC Vegas 41: One Question for Every Fight
Delving into each fight on Saturday's card to figure out what the results may show and where the conversations around the winners and loser may head once the dust settles
Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori
Q: What’s the deal with Marvin Vettori?
I could understand his desire to run it back with Israel Adesanya after winning five straight and feeling like he improved a great deal, but for him to still be out here telling Brett Okamoto that he doesn't think Adesanya was that much better or that he wasn’t really in control of their second fight earlier this year, I’m starting to wonder if this dude is just lost in his own delusions?
According to UFCstats.com, Adesanya had more significant strikes landed than Vettori in each round at UFC 263, while Vettori went 4/14 on takedown attempts, yielding zero submission attempts and just under seven minutes of total control time, never eclipsing two minutes of control in any round. Yet four months later, Vettori is still out here acting like he’s on the same level as “The Last Stylebender” when that has now been emphatically proven to be incorrect.
Why that is worrying and troublesome is because he’s about to step into the Octagon with another guy looking to rebound from being embarrassed by the middleweight champion, Paulo Costa, and that dude is going to try to launch his head into the 17th row from the opening bell. If Vettori isn’t totally locked in and ready to make this fight grimy and ugly from the outset, things could go bad for him, quickly, and then all the positive momentum and praise he garnered during his five-fight winning streak will be gone.
He’s a bad loss on Saturday night away from getting the “… but who did he really beat to earn that title shot?” treatment, which is unfair because he earned quality wins over Cezar Mutante and Andrew Sanchez, mauled Karl Roberson, dominated Jack Hermansson, and completely out-hustled Kevin Holland, and had done enough to merit a championship opportunity. That being said, another tepid outing turns that impressive run into a “caught lightning in a bottle moment” where we’re all sitting around wondering if Vettori can ever get back to being a contender or if he’s destined to be a Pedro Munhoz type in the 185-pound weight class.
Note: I wrote this before Paulo Costa showed up at his media availability and said, “Yeah, I’m not making ‘85 on Friday. It’s up to Vettori if we’re still going to fight at a catchweight or not.” I thought about changing it, but this is still the one question I’m thinking about most heading into this fight… if it happens.
Grant Dawson vs. Ricky Glenn
Q: Why aren’t more people talking about Grant Dawson?
This question is kind of rhetorical because I don't actually want to hear the excuses and justifications everyone has for paying little attention to a 27-year-old rising star that is 5-0 in the UFC and 17-1 overall, but it’s the question that has to be asked here because far too many people aren’t paying enough attention to this 27-year-old rising star that is 5-0 in the UFC and 17-1 overall.
People trip over themselves to sing the praises of newcomers that have yet to prove anything inside the Octagon and prospects that have loads of personality, but few real quality victories (which are not the same as with impressive finishes), and yet a kid like Dawson, who was highly regarded on his way up the regional ranks and trains with a terrific group at Glory MMA & Fitness has gotten very little shine during what has been a really nice five-fight run to start his UFC career.
He was supposed to face Diego Ferreira at the start of October, which shows you both where he’s at in the division and what the UFC brass think of him, as Ferreira is ranked and respected, but the Fortis MMA rep was forced out, creating the opportunity for Glenn to step up. A win here won’t generate the same kind of attention beat Ferreira would, but Glenn is a gritty, veteran out coming off a tremendous knockout of Joaquim Silva, and earning a sixth straight victory on Saturday should put Dawson on the radar.
Sadly, the only way he’s probably going to get the attention his efforts should already command is if he becomes the next guy to call out Paddy Pimblett in his post-fight interview, because lord knows everything has Google alerts set to notify them anyone mentions the latest British sensation sweeping the MMA nation.
Sigh.
Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Joselyne Edwards
Q: Where does Jessy Jess fit in the bantamweight division?
The 33-year-old Australian fights this weekend for the first time in over a year after suffering a torn ACL during her dominant victory over Sarah Alpar last September. Not that there is ever a good time for a major injury, but this one felt extra untimely as Clark was so impressive and seemed to be a point where she was ready to make a bit of a run in the bantamweight ranks, having committed to the move up, worked hard on transforming her body, and really showed tangible skill development and improvements.
Getting sidelined for a year cooled all that momentum, and now it’s time to see if the fan favorite can pick up where she left off last fall when she steps in opposite Edwards on Saturday.
Clark has always been scrappy and game, and is better than her career 10-6 record with one No Contest might suggest, having struggled to find the right weight class and fought over her head in the middle piece of her career while she was still figuring everything out. Her performance last fall felt, at the time, like a breakthrough effort and the start of something positive for “Lil Thiccc” and I’m curious to see if she can shake off the rust and turn in a similar performance against Edwards this weekend.
Alex Caceres vs. Seungwoo Choi
Q: Do we have a little something here with Seungwoo Choi?
I’ve been trying not to get too far ahead of myself with prospects and people that put together solid little winning streaks lately because MMA is a cruel, cruel sport where promise and potential can get washed out in a hurry, but I’m genuinely excited to see this fight on Saturday because I’m really interested to know if Choi can be the next talented young fighter to work his way up the ranks in the ridiculously deep featherweight division?
We’ve seen a bunch of promising talents make that climb in recent years — Arnold Allen, Bryce Mitchell, Movsar Evloev, Ilia Topuria — and while “Sting” dropped his first two UFC appearances, including his debut opposite Evloev, he’s won three straight heading into this weekend’s pairing with the experienced Caceres and coming off a clean first-round stoppage win over Julian Erosa last time out.
He has great height and a strong reach for the division, plus quick, sharp hands and clear toughness, as he tried to slug it out with both Evloev and Gavin Tucker, prompting each of them to wrestle.
Caceres is on a solid four-fight winning streak and is the perfect veteran test for the 28-year-old South Korean at this point, and if Choi can extend his winning streak to four with another strong effort on Saturday, he just might be the next emerging featherweight closing in on a place in the rankings.
Dwight Grant vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Q: How ‘bout a round of applause for Francisco Trinaldo?
Maybe it’s because “Massaranduba” is two months older than me and I can’t fathom what it takes to compete in the UFC at age 43, but I feel like he’s another one of these tenured veterans that has forged a solid overall career and never gets the recognition he deserves.
Trinaldo is 16-7 in the UFC — 16-7 — and spent the majority of that time competing in the shark tank that is the lightweight division. He has wins over Jim Miller and Paul Felder and Ross Pearson and Bobby Green and made his promotional debut six weeks after The Avengers first touched down in theatres.
Dude has remained on the roster, active and competitive, throughout the entire Infinity Saga and into Phase 4, and I can’t really think of any fights along the way that were duds; not one. I’m sure there were a couple grind’em out wins in there somewhere or a staring match on the feet with somebody, but there isn’t one that jumps to mind the way there are with many of his contemporaries that have slowed down or pulled back a little as they’ve gotten a little older.
We need to start giving fighters like Trinaldo their flowers more frequently because doing what he’s done is difficult and his efforts should be acknowledged.
Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Ike Villanueva
Q: Who’s getting stopped and who’s doing the stopping?
This is a classic main card opener — a sure-fire banger where someone is getting finished and there is almost no way it does the distance.
Normally I would be afraid to say such a thing, especially since Negumereanu went from never seeing the third round to going to the scorecards in each of his first two UFC appearances, but “Hurricane Ike” just doesn’t like bothering with them judges, as each of his last eight fights and 14 of the 17 fights with detailed entries on his Tapology page have ended in stoppages.
Even if Negumereanu wants to come out and be a little more patient, a little more calculating, Villanueva will be up in his face from the jump and the Romanian light heavyweight will have no choice but to fire back or get finished, and no one ever straight up chooses “get finished” in that scenario.
Figure out who you like and include them in your Draft Kings lineup because one of these dudes will be earning a finishing bonus on Saturday.
Junyong Park vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Q: Is “The Iron Turtle” a middleweight dark horse?
First, let’s acknowledge that “The Iron Turtle” is a wonderful nickname.
Second, Junyong Park is riding a three-fight winning streak, is 3-1 in the UFC, and 10-1 over his last 11 appearances, which includes a submission win over PFL favorite Ray Cooper III. Since losing his promotional debut to “Fluffy” Hernandez two summers back, Park has out-worked Marc-Andre Barriault, mauled John Phillips, and turned back Tafon Nchukwi, navigating a nasty kick to the pills in a foul-heavy fight where Tony Weeks being Tony Weeks turned what should have been a clear decision win for the South Korean middleweight into a majority decision verdict in his favor.
Sean Sheehan and I always mention when we do the State of the UFC podcasts on SevereMMA that middleweight is one of the shallowest divisions in the UFC and climbing the ranks there only takes a couple strong outings, so forecasting that Park works his way to the fringes of the Top 15 isn’t too much of a stretch given what he’s done of late, but does he have the potential to do more than that?
I feel like the lower third of the Top 15 is kind of in flux and wide open, and we’ve seen grinders put together a few good wins at the right time to climb into contention, so why not Park? Rodrigues is a good challenge on Saturday — a powerful Brazilian with solid experience — and a fourth consecutive victory would have to merit a step up in competition next time out.
From there, another win puts him in the Top 15 and then who knows what can happen.
I think I just laid out how Junyong Park becomes a dark horse contender in the middleweight division.
David Onama vs. Mason Jones
Q: Does “The Dragon” finally get his first UFC win?
I like Mason Jones — I think he’s a fine prospect and I think he’s going to have a long, successful career as an action fighter in the middle of the lightweight pack.
But I also think he’s in real danger of going with a victory in his first three UFC appearances as he steps in this weekend against late replacement David Onama, who fills in for Alan Patrick and carries dynamite in his hands.
Jones was on his way to his first UFC win last time out against Patrick when an inadvertent eye poke halted the fight, first momentarily and then for good, resulting in the fight being declared a No Contest. It was one of those instances where you know it was the right call by the rules, but a heartbreaking result for Jones, because he was all over the Brazilian veteran and ends up coming away with No Contest because he poked him in the eye in the second round and not the third.
Normally I would lean heavily in favor of the tenured UFC fighter who has been in training camp, preparing for this date the whole time without much hesitation, but Onama is 8-0, has never seen the third round, lit someone up just a couple weeks ago to claim a Double A title, and trains with the Glory MMA & Fitness crew who are always in shape, always ready, and always well-prepared. Combine that with the way Jones tends to get into firefights and you understand why I feel a little less certain that the Welsh youngster gets the job done this weekend.
On a tangential note, I’m really curious to see how this one plays out because the results haven’t been great for recent Cage Warriors titleholders matriculating to the UFC, as only Jack Shore and Molly McCann have winning records, and the group of seven fighters is 13-14 with two No Contest verdicts combined.
Tabatha Ricci vs. Maria Oliveira
Q: What does Ricci look like in her natural weight class?
Tabatha Ricci debuted in the UFC on short notice, fighting up a division against Manon Fiorot and it went as expected, with “The Beast” brutalizing the diminutive Brazilian for eight minutes even before the bout was mercifully halted.
Now Ricci returns, back at strawweight, against fellow Brazilian Maria Oliveira in a clash that should provide a lot more clarity about what to expect from “Baby Shark” going forward.
It’s difficult to have even a solid baseline of expectations for Ricci because the five opponents she faced in MMA competition before losing to Fiorot were a combined 4-10-1 and the custom rules stuff she was doing in Japan doesn’t really translate. She’s been training with good people and appears to be a solid grappler, but can anyone say that with real certainty given the level of competition she’s faced thus far?
Oliveira, who trains with the PVT crew that developed Jessica Andrade into a champion and Karol Rosa into a ranked, ascended bantamweight, but she hasn’t beaten anyone of substance either, so this weekend’s bout may not even actually answer this question.
Still, I’m curious and I want to see how Ricci looks against someone her own size and not matched up against a flyweight contender like Fiorot before I make any real assessment about what she brings to the table and what her prospects are in the UFC.
Jamie Pickett vs. Laureano Staropoli
Q: Will history repeat itself for Jamie Pickett?
It took Jamie Pickett three tries to secure a contract on the Contender Series, dropping his first two appearances to contract-winners Charles Byrd and Punahele Soriano before finally inking a deal himself with a win over Jhonoven Pati last summer.
Saturday will be Pickett’s third UFC appearance, and he’s still without a victory, having lost to Tafon Nchukwi and Jordan Wright, and I’m so eager to see if history will repeat itself or not this weekend.
Pickett said all the right things when we spoke for the above story, acknowledging the jitters that got to him for his debut, and having made mistakes because he was too confident in his bout with Wright earlier this year. Having covered the Contender Series since its inception, I saw all of his fights and know what he’s capable of when he just trusts his talents and lets his strikes go, but just as he didn’t show that until his third Contender Series appearance, we haven’t quite seen it yet in the UFC either.
These are the cool little stories people miss when they ignore half of the fight card or the event as a whole, but I’m looking forward to seeing how it’s resolved this weekend.
Khama Worthy vs. Jai Herbert
Q: Can Jai Herbert avoid going 0-3 in the UFC?
Herbert is one of the seven recent Cage Warriors champions included in the math at the end of the Mason Jones question, and after arriving in the UFC on a six-fight winning streak with four consecutive finishes, “The Black Country Banger’ is 0-2 in the Octagon having been finished both times.
Herbert was one of the Cage Warriors crossovers I had high expectations for because he was a little older, a little more experienced than some of the others that have made the move of late, and while he’s had moment of being competitive in each of his first two assignment and faced tough competition, things have not worked out well for him and it’s no guarantee they get better on Saturday. Worthy is an experienced veteran with good pop in his hands and a solid all-around skill set; it’s a coin-flip for me, which is wild because I really thought Herbert would be able to at least become a solid mid-pack addition to the UFC lightweight ranks.
Now, this is a slight step back in competition after facing Trinaldo and Renato Moicano in his first two appearances, so the potential is there for Herbert to get a win here and be a victory away from being .500 in the Octagon, but the early returns have been rough and I need to see some positive results before I can let myself start thinking too far into the future with the former Cage Warriors lightweight titleholder.
Jeff Molina vs. Daniel Lacerda
Q: Are you following Jeff Molina in Twitter?
You should be, and not just because of this terrific response to me including him (and tagging him) in my Fighters on the Rise piece this week either:
In addition to having a solid GIF and meme game, as well as being a guy that re-tweets all the media he’s done, which is something I greatly appreciate, obviously, he’s also showcased a sharp sense of humor, like when he noted that he wasn’t even born when Brazilian veteran Johnny Eduardo turned pro, or when he QT’ed a video of Paddy Pimblett talking about how people call him fat adding, “Me when everyone at the gym is calling me ‘El Hefty’ instead of ‘El Jefe’” which honestly make me choke with laughter when I first read it.
But along with being a good Twitter follow, Molina is an interesting prospect in the flyweight division — another member of the Glory MMA & Fitness crew who cranked up the output and ran away with the fight down the stretch in his debut earlier this year. He a gutsy, tough, skilled newcomer with the tools and talent to make a quick climb towards the rankings in the 125-pound weight class, and the kind of active, entertaining fighter that the UFC will likely give a push to if he comes away with a second strong effort on Saturday.
Livinha Souza vs. Randa Markos
Q: Can Randa Markos get back in the win column?
After going a number of years without ever having the same result in consecutive UFC fights, Markos enters Saturday’s opener opposite Livinha Souza having earned the same result — a loss — in four consecutive outings. Last time out, the Canadian was disqualified after hitting Luana Pinheiro with an illegal upkick that rendered her unable to continue, and she was unsure if she was going to get another chance to compete in the Octagon again.
Hearing the genuine relief in her voice when she talked about finally getting the call from Mick Maynard with a fight offer was another reminder that as much as this is entertainment for people at home, it’s a career and how these athletes make their living, and the wins and losses that we often blow passed without a second thought have a massive impact on their incomes and their emotional well-being. Much like Aspen Ladd calmly detailing how she felt “worthless” after her weight miss ahead of her scratched fight with Macy Chiasson, hearing that little bit of panic rush back into Markos’ voice when she talked about not being ready to move on from this if she didn’t get another shot has really stuck with me.
Souza is a mercurial fighter coming off a first-round stoppage loss where she looked disinterested, but she’s also flashed tremendous skill and swagger in the past, so it won't be easy for Markos to snap this slide and secure her future in the UFC for at least one more fight.
But I’ll be rooting for her, and I’ll be watching, and you should too.