UFC Vegas 41: Punch Drunk Predictions
Who will win Saturday's weight class shifting main event between Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori?
You have to give it to Paulo Costa — he got people paying attention to Saturday afternoon’s fight card.
By turning up on Wednesday and declaring he wasn’t going to make the middleweight limit for his fight with Marvin Vettori, the former title challenger got people talking about this weekend’s main event. As a follow-up on Thursday evening, news started circulating that the bout would be shifted from a catchweight fight at 195 pounds to a battle at light heavyweight.
As I write this on Thursday night, I’m not sure if they’re fighting, what weight they’re fighting at, or what the hell is going to happen, but I’m even more intrigued to see this fight than I was at the start of the week, and I’m sure there are plenty of others who are in the same boat.
Update: it’s now at 205!
On to the picks!
Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori
While some have wondered if Costa’s weigh situation is a reflection of a lack of focus or preparation, I think it’s more of a situation where “Borrachina” just decided at some point during his training camp that shedding the weight wasn’t something he really wanted to do.
But I’m pretty confident that he’s prepared and pretty confident that he’s going to beat Vettori on Saturday.
Unless he really did slack throughout his preparations for this contest, Costa enters this one with a colossal power advantage and sound takedown defence, which are two things that set him apart from Vettori for me. While the Italian has beaten some solid competition using pace, pressure, and a steady diet of takedowns, I just don’t see that formula working against Costa, who will make him pay for marching forward looking to close the distance.
Maybe Costa’s energy wanes in the second half of the fight, but I don’t think it gets there.
Prediction: Paulo Costa def. Marvin Vettori by TKO
Grant Dawson vs. Ricky Glenn
In thinking about how this fight plays out, I tend to feel the same way Dawson does:
“He’s tough and one of those guys that is going to hang around. I just also think I’m tough and that I hang around, and if you put our skill versus skill, I can’t see a way — other than an early knockout like he got in his last fight — I can’t see a way that he’s going to be able to out-grind me, out-precision me.”
That’s what he told me earlier this week when I spoke with him for a preview of this fight, and it feels right. Glenn has pop in his hands and will make Dawson pay if he comes in recklessly or makes a mistake, but on the whole, skill-for-skill, talent-for-talent, I think the emerging lightweight is the more complete fighter of the two and continues his run of success.
It’s going to be a tough fight — Glenn has only been finished once in the last dozen years — but I see Dawson earning a hard-fought decision victory.
Prediction: Grant Dawson by unanimous decision
Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Joselyne Edwards
Unless she’s super-rusty or her dominant effort against Sarah Alpar last fall was a one-time thing, I think Clark rolls here.
She looked so good in that fight — mixing her weapons, showing greater poise and authoritativeness in the Octagon, getting better as it progressed — and while I think Edwards is a solid overall addition to the division, this profiles more like her fight with Karol Rosa than her win over Yan Xiaonan at the start of the year. Against equal or lesser talents, she’s competitive, maybe even superior, especially from an athletic standpoint, but against more experienced, more polished competitors, like Rosa and like Clark, I believe she struggles.
Look for Clark to come forward, work inside of Edwards’ range and do damage from the clinch, working knees and elbows, maybe a cheeky foot sweep or trip, and turn this comeback fight into a showcase.
Prediction: Jessica-Rosa Clark by unanimous decision
Alex Caceres vs. Seungwoo Choi
As good as Caceres has been over his last four fights — and he’s been quite good — he doesn’t have the benefit of working behind his long-range weapons here, as Choi actually has the superior reach, and that, coupled with the South Korean’s speed and power on the feet will be the difference-makers.
We don’t see it a ton at featherweight because it’s usually more about volume and accumulated damage than one shot altering the tempo or tenor of a fight, but Choi has the kind of power and precision with his hands to do that. The power part is why Jeremy Stephens was always so dangerous, it’s why Josh Emmett is so dangerous, but “Sting” combines that with precision, and it makes him someone really interesting to track in my eyes.
I think he has a breakout performance here, hurting Caceres early and getting him out of there before the first round is over, pushing his winning streak to four and setting him up for clash with an even more established, higher ranked name next time out.
Prediction: Seungwoo Choi by TKO
Dwight Grant vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Trinaldo seemed a little slower to me in his welterweight debut against Muslim Salikhov earlier this year, and against most opponents, that would give me real reason for pause, but Grant is surprisingly old himself (he’s 37) and while he’s going to have a height and reach advantage, I haven’t seen anything from him through five UFC appearances that leads me to believe those things will be difference-makers here.
Grant profiles to me as a guy that is looking for one clean shot, otherwise, it’s a close 15-minute battle. The wrinkle here, to me, is that Trinaldo can — and should — look to take this to the ground, as Grant has been taken down in all of his fights, save for his first-round loss to Daniel Rodriguez, and that includes bouts against non-grapplers Carlo Pedersoli Jr. and Alan Jouban.
Trinaldo has never been a big takedown guy, but he’s used them sporadically when needed and it’s an avenue he should explore. I think he can win a 15-minute kickboxing match by simply being the more active of the two, crashing in to close the distance and rough up Grant while he waits for the perfect opportunity to present itself, but a grimy, clinch-heavy approach where he mixes in a couple timely takedowns feels like the path to victory for the Brazilian here.
Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo by unanimous decision
Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Ike Villanueva
I want to pick “Hurricane Ike,” but I just can’t.
He seems like a good dude, and he’s a tough sumbitch, but he’s limited, and even against someone like Negumereanu that isn’t all-world by any stretch, it’s a recipe for getting touched up and beaten.
My sense is that while Villanueva will look to throw hands, Negumereanu will try to put him on the deck and work from top position because if you don’t need to stand-and-bang with a grizzly veteran like Villanueva, why would you? Path of least resistance and all that good stuff.
Even if this does stay standing, I feel like things favor the Romania, as he has a significant reach advantage and Villanueva absorbs an alarming 7.88 strikes per minute. While both guys have a strike differential of -3.00 or higher, I’ll side with the guy that isn’t getting hit roughly 40 times per round while having an average fight time of less than five minutes.
Unless Villanueva lands something sharp that just floors Negumereanu, I think the Romanian gets the finish and a second straight win.
Prediction: Nicolae Negumereanu by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Junyong Park def. Gregory Rodrigues
Mason Jones def. David Onama
Tabatha Ricci def. Maria Oliveira
Laureano Staropoli def. Jamie Pickett
Jai Herbert def. Khama Worthy
Jeff Molina def. Daniel Lacerda
Randa Markos def. Livinha Souza
Jonathan Martinez def. Zviad Lazishvili
2021 PDP Record: 232-163-4, 5 NC (.574)