UFC Vegas 42: One Question for Every Fight
From start to finish, there is something about each fight on Saturday's lineup that piques my interest
Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez
Q: What can we reasonably expect from Yair Rodriguez?
The last time Yair Rodriguez fought was more than two years ago when he battled Jeremy Stephens in the do-over following their main event eye-poke fight in Mexico City. He won a three-round unanimous decision with scores of 29-28 across the board and hasn’t been seen since, having withdrawn from a scheduled fight with Zabit Magomedsharipov and served a six-months USADA suspension after failing to provide his whereabouts a couple times.
And now he’s facing Max Holloway in a five-round main event and I have no idea what to reasonably expect from this man.
My gut tells me this is going to be ugly — Holloway boxes him up for three rounds before chasing and finding a finish later in the fight — but the then I think about Rodriguez’s last-second up-elbow against Chan Sung Jung and I wonder if the dynamic Mexican fighter is the right kind of wild and tenacious to go shot-for-shot with the former champion?
Plus, he’s been gone for two years — we don’t know how much he’s improved, what he’s added to his arsenal, what kind of tricks he’s got up his sleeves heading into this one.
Again, I lean towards not expecting much evolution or real development from Rodriguez here, but he’s one of those guys where you have to account for the possibility that he could always show up as the fully-formed, fully-actualized version of himself everyone has always hoped for, but not yet seen.
Ben Rothwell vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Q: Why don’t we give Ben Rothwell the same respect we give other tenured veterans?
I’m asking this question of myself too, right now, because for all the love I’m quick to shower on someone like Jim Miller (deservedly), I’ve never been as inclined to offer the same praise, the same attention to the 40-year-old Rothwell, who makes the walk for the 53rd time on Saturday.
Rothwell has been a pro since 2001. He fought Tim Sylvia in his fourth appearance, and logged 23 appearances in his first five years, taking a “have fists, will fight” approach while competing everywhere from Russia and Brazil to all points across the United States. He went unbeaten in the IFL, fought on the first Affliction card, and debuted in the UFC against Cain Velasquez, which tells you how highly the promotion thought of him from the outset.
We always find ways to downplay the longevity of heavyweights a little, and while it’s true you see more fortysomethings in the big boy ranks than anywhere else, there have also been plenty of guys that washed out or called it quits long before that, which makes guys like Rothwell and Andrei Arlovski that are still hanging around the fringes of the Top 15 all the more incredible.
Rothwell has quietly gone 3-1 over his last four fights, beating everyone’s newest favorite heavyweight, Chris Barnett, last time out. He’s still competitive. He’s still dangerous. He’s still an entertaining dude to watch compete inside the Octagon, and he deserves the kind of praise and admiration we shower on his smaller contemporaries.
Felicia Spencer vs. Leah Letson
Q: Did the Amanda Nunes fight permanently alter Felicia Spencer?
When she was coming up through Invicta FC and even in her clash with Cris Cyborg, the thing that always stood out about Felicia Spencer was her aggressiveness and overall tenacity. She got in there and mixed things up, even when she was still developing as a fighter and figuring out how to put everything together most effectively, but it feels like that has changed.
Spencer dropped a split decision to Norma Dumont last time out in a fight where she attempted zero takedowns and landed just 47 significant strikes; roughly 15 per round, or three per minute, however you want to break it down. That’s not much at all, and the fact that she didn’t even look at a takedown attempt was more alarming since getting opponents to the canvas and getting in her jiu jitsu game has been her bread and butter this whole time.
It made me start to wonder if the lopsided thumping she took at the hands of Amanda Nunes at UFC 250 didn’t leave some residual mental scarring.
None of this is meant to detract from Dumont, who is solid and scrappy and coming off a good performance over five rounds against Aspen Ladd, but Spencer just didn’t look like herself, didn’t fight like we’re used to seeing her fight. We talk about the impact being in a hard-fought battle can have on competitors — that Justin Gaethje’s style will eventually catch up to him; how Anthony Pettis was never really the same after getting walked down and beaten up by Rafael Dos Anjos; that those two losses to Cain Velasquez permanently altered Junior Dos Santos — and I’m curious to see if that’s what happened to Spencer.
Did getting battered by Nunes for 25 minutes make her a more hesitant, less tenacious fighter? It’d be understandable, but it would also bring up a bunch of additional questions about her future because that grit and toughness was a key piece of what made her a quality fighter.
Song Yadong vs. Julio Arce
Q: Will Song Yadong take the next step forward?
After starting his UFC career with four straight wins and a move into the Top 15, Song has hit that inevitable point all prospects reach where their performance has plateaued because they’re no longer facing opponents they have a distinct advantage over.
For the last two years, the 23-year-old “Kung Fu Monkey” has engaged in competitive fights, going 2-1-1 over a four-fight stretch that could, realistically, have ended with a 1-3 or even 0-4 record. That’s not even a knock on Song, who is still tremendously young and brimming with upside — it’s just a consequence of climbing the ladder and being stuck between developmental leaps.
What’s going to be interesting, however, is seeing if and when the Chinese fighter, who trains at Team Alpha Male, can take that next step forward, because as I’ve talked about at great length here and elsewhere, bantamweight is bustling right now and staying in place is almost the same as moving backwards.
Saturday’s fight with Arce is an outstanding chance to see if he’s progressed at all since his split decision win over Casey Kenney earlier this year, as the veteran has a wealth of experience, is crisp with his striking, and solid in every facet. Song still has the chance to develop into a perennial Top 10 fighter in the future — again, he’s 23 — but I’d like to see a little of that progress soon.
Thiago Moises vs. Joel Alvarez
Q: How is this on the prelims?
This fight should be on the main card, and with the late scratch of the middleweight clash between Kyle Daukaus and Roman Dolidze, which was supposed to be the rematch between Daukaus and Kevin Holland, this should be the unquestioned fight to promote into that space.
Moises headlined last time out; it was a replacement main event, and he lost, but he headlined nonetheless, and Alvarez enters on a three-fight winning streak.
These two are in that 12-20 range in the lightweight division where a couple strong performances are going to land either (or both) in the Octagon with someone looking to climb into the mix, just as Moises’ three-fight winning streak landed him opposite Islam Makhachev, and the UFC needs to ensure that fighters in that position aren’t unknown to the audience when they get there.
This should be an entertaining, scrambly, quality fight and it has legitimate divisional significance — get it off the prelims and onto the main card.
Cynthia Calvillo vs. Andrea Lee
Q: Where does Cynthia Calvillo fit in the flyweight division?
I know she’s ranked No. 5 in the UFC Rankings, and No. 10 in the division in the MMA Fighting rankings, but there is no part of me that thinks of her as being that close to title contention, and it’s not just because she enters this one on a two-fight slide. Losing to Jessica Andrade and Katlyn Chookagian is almost to be expected for anyone other than Valentina Shevchenko, so it’s more about just having no real good sense of what makes her a particularly dangerous opponent for anyone looking to climb the ranks.
You don’t have to be flashy to be effective, and you don’t have to be lights out in any one discipline in order to be a contender, but there’s just no area where I feel Calvillo dominates or fights where I look back and think, “That’s what makes her dangerous.”
Her best win came four years ago, down a division, against Joanne Calderwood in what was the Scottish contender’s last strawweight appearance. She beat Jessica Eye in her divisional debut, but that hasn’t aged particularly well, and she’s surprisingly older than most people recall because she started her pro career in her late 20s.
I just want to be honest in how we talk about this competitors and where they fit in their respective divisions, and it feels like Calvillo gets by on reputation more than results, and I just don’t know where she got that reputation in the first place. She had a nice little run to begin her UFC tenure, but that was more than four years ago and she’s stumbled each time she’s been faced with a chance to ascend to the next level.
She could very well earn a victory on Saturday, in part because I think Lee is a similar fighter, but I really just don’t know where she fits in the division.
If I were one of the young hopefuls looking to climb the ranks, I’m calling out Calvillo and trying to hustle my way into the mix.
Miguel Baeza vs. Khaos Williams
Q: This one is going to disappoint us, isn’t it?
I’m not trying to be a Debbie Downer here or anything, but I’m worried that all the excitement we all rightfully feel about this potential firefight is going to turn into sadness if and when Baeza and Williams show a tremendous amount of respect (understandably) for each others power and engage in a 15-minute, kickboxing-at-range contest on Saturday night.
Never in the history of his series have I wanted to be wrong more because if this plays out the way we all want it to, and the way their individual styles have suggested it could possibly play out, this will be a jolt of electricity early in the prelims and carry the potential for a hellacious finish.
Baeza is coming off the first loss of his career, while Williams got back into the win column with a measured, smart win over Matthew Semelsberger, so it will be interesting to see if the former is looking to press the action a little more and if the latter will be more apt to trade like he was in his first two UFC appearances.
God I hope I’m wrong about this one.
Sean Woodson vs. Collin Anglin
Q: How and why does Sean Woodson fight at featherweight?
Woodson is one of those guys where every time I see him step into the Octagon, I think, “Why doesn’t he just fight up a division?”
I understand the whole “give yourself the most advantages” idea behind weight cutting, but it’s not like he’d be giving up height and reach competing at lightweight — he’s six-two for chrissakes, with a 78-inch reach — and he wouldn’t be sucking the life out of his body to make ‘55 the way it seems he has to in order to compete at ‘45.
Having watched all of his fights, including his Contender Series finish of Terrance McKinney, I can see the upside, the tools, the dynamic elements, and to me, they all translate at lightweight. His size gives him solid takedown defence, which he showed last time out against Youssef Zalal, he has smooth, sharp boxing, and his knees and elbows are real weapons because they can land from so far away… I just don’t get why he wouldn’t test-drive a move to ‘55?
I think — and this is just me spitballin’ here — that there is a little Kelvin Gastelum, “the difference between welterweight and middleweight is that I can be a champion at welterweight” kind of thinking going on here, and Woodson isn’t too sure he can climb to the same heights at lightweight as he might at featherweight, but it’s not like he’s soaring through the ranks at ‘45 right now. He’s had some good showings, but he’s also faded a few times, likely because his conditioning is shot from having to make weight, so why not dip your toe in the lightweight waters and see if you maybe want to splash around a bit?
Cortney Casey vs. Liana Jojua
Q: Is there a more hard-luck fighter in the UFC than Cortney Casey?
I covered a little of this yesterday, but here’s the quick version:
Casey is 9-9 overall and 5-8 in the UFC, but she’s had between 4-6 fights that have gone the distance and could have been scored either way, including three different split decision losses where the majority of the media scoring the bouts believed she did enough to win. She also had a fight with Priscila Cachoeira called off at the 11th hour because the Brazilian struggled to make weight.
Even if you just flip the result of her fight with JJ Aldrich in March, Casey enters Saturday’s contest with Jojua off a win and sporting a 10-8 record which doesn’t seem like a big change, but it certainly would buy her a little more breathing room when it comes to mapping out her future. She has one fight left on her contract after this, and when you’re right around .500 for your career and below .500 in the Octagon, every bit of breathing room is welcomed.
And this is a tough fight.
Jojua may only be 1-2 in the UFC, but she’s flashed promised and did her camp for this one in Las Vegas with the team at Syndicate, which should help her level up a little.
Personally, I would keep Casey around as long as she still wanted to compete because she’s ultra-tough and game as hell, and you need fighters like her in every division, especially one like flyweight where there are a bunch of aspiring young talents looking to climb the ranks.
Marc Diakiese vs. Rafael Alves
Q: Can Rafael Alves avoid having a completely terrible rookie season?
Year One in the UFC hasn’t gone very well for Alves as of yet, and it might not get any better this weekend.
The Brazilian, who earned his contract with a second-round finish on the Contender Series last fall, missed weight for his debut by two divisions. You read that correctly — he weighed in above the lightweight limit for his scheduled featherweight bout with Pat Sabatini, and was understandably told to move up a division.
When he finally debuted at lightweight a couple months later, he landed on the wrong side of a unanimous decision loss to Damir Ismagulov, which isn’t the worst result possible, but also not the best look when you’re coming off his miscue in February.
This weekend, “The Turn” takes on Marc Diakiese, who has spent the last several years facing real quality competition and making improvements despite it not necessarily translating into results.
If Alves goes out and has another middling effort, falling to 0-2 in one of the deepest divisions in the sport, after his colossal weight miss to start the year, his best-case scenario is a “back against the wall” assignment to start 2022. That’s a rough spot to be in, so I’m curious to see if he can avoid it by coming through with a strong showing on Saturday.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Da-un Jung
Q: How is this the opener?
Remember earlier how I asked why Moises and Alvarez was on the prelims? Well how in the name of all things good and holy is this the first fight of the day?
Nzechukwu has won three straight, including back-to-back stoppages this year that each garnered him a Performance of the Night bonus. Jung is 3-0-1 in the UFC and riding a 14-fight unbeaten streak. They’re both under 30 years old in a division where new names are always needed and a few strong outings can carry you into a pairing with a Top 15 opponent, and yet somehow, for some reason, these two have been tasked with opening the show this weekend.
Now, if you want to tell me this is like sticking Gaethje-Chandler in the main card opener last weekend, I’ll listen, but it feels more like dropping two lesser known, but clearly talented fighters in the first fight of the night because… I honestly don’t know. I guess you maybe don’t want to make someone with a little more seniority feel any kind of way by sticking them in the opener, but like Diakiese and Alves or Casey and Jojua make more sense being in this spot if we’re talking about ordering fights in terms of recent results and potential future impact.
I know that’s not how things are always done, but man, this just feels like a missed opportunity because there are going to be tons of people that don’t remember this show starts at 10am PT or who just get around to it after doing some AM errands on Saturday and they’ll have missed what should be a great fight between two light heavyweights where the winner could share the cage with a Top 15 opponent next time out.