UFC Vegas 43: One Question for Every Fight
Getting into the elements of Saturday's solid event that pique my interest in the latest edition of Keyboard Kimura's Wednesday staple
So I took yesterday off for a couple reasons.
One, if you search Abbotsford, British Columbia on Google, you’ll see that portions of the city I call home are underwater. We’re safe, thankfully, and our neighbourhood is in good shape, but just down the road, the highway is completely submerged.
The neighbourhood where we lived last December when we were in between our old place and this one is a swamp. The park where I walked Skippy the Fox (RIP) for four weeks looks like a pond. The roads to the park we went to just about every day up until two weeks ago are also washed out, and it all feels very heavy.
Two, I’ve been feeling my propensity to “choose violence” when it comes to social media and commentaries and whatnot get heightened lately, and rather than let that bleed over into a column where I once again get angry about stuff that is never going to change, I skipped the traditional Tuesday op-ed in favor of watching the Kevin Garnett documentary on Showtime, lining up my December assignments, and doing the dishes.
One thing I will say though: if you’re at a major media outlet, I don’t want to see you tweeting about how certain fights are “flying under the radar” or are “not being talked about enough” because you’re the people that have the platforms to talk about these fights and fighters!
If you think they should be getting talked about more, talk about them more; it’s really not that difficult!
See? Angsty.
Anyway, I really like this weekend’s card.
Here are the questions that are front and center for me as the event draws nearer.
Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate
Q: Is Miesha Tate a contender already?
Miesha Tate looked outstanding in her return performance against Marion Reneau, showing no signs of rust after a four-plus-year layoff to secure a third-round stoppage win and catapult herself back into the Top 10 in the bantamweight division.
Now, the former champion gets a real test in a pairing with Ketlen Vieira, one that was supposed to take place last months before Tate tested positive for COVID-19 towards the end of September.
The Reneau win is a good win, regardless of it being Reneau’s final appearance or the fact that she entered on a four-fight slide. Tate hadn’t fought since UFC 205 and she went out and dominated; I don’t care you who beat under those circumstances, and beating a divisional stalwart and looking good doing it is a major victory and a quality win.
But this is the one I really want to see. This is the one that is really going to tell us where Tate fits in the divisional hierarchy and if she’s already back to being one of the top bantamweights in the world.
I thought Vieira did enough to beat Yana Kunitskaya last time out, and I think her coming in on a two-fight winning streak instead of off a split decision loss would alter the way people are looking at this pairing. I also think that because Amanda Nunes has been so dominant, anyone that has yet to cobble together enough wins to earn a title shot or failed to land opposite one of the top two contenders (Germaine de Randamie and Holly Holm) gets automatically downgraded to being “not that good,” which is more than a little unfair.
Vieira is good — she’s a strong grappler, has good size, a solid reach, a little bit of pop in her hands — and should fight Tate tough at every turn. As much as this is a measuring stick moment for Tate, it’s also an important bout for Vieira too, and I think that makes it a tougher fight for Tate, if that makes sense.
It’s not inconceivable that Tate is still a top-tier fighter — she’s only 35, she had fours years where she wasn’t accumulating any damage, and she was legitimately elite when she exited — but it’s one of those “show me” situations, and I’m looking forward to seeing if she can prove it on Saturday.
Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady
Q: Is anyone else getting Kamaru Usman vibes from Sean Brady?
Sean Sheehan and I touched upon this a little when I guested on the latest Severe MMA podcast, but I’ll break it down a little here too in case you somehow missed our wonderful show earlier in the week.
When Usman was starting to make his way in the UFC, he was picking up good wins that didn’t move the needle a ton, even though he was an undefeated fighter from a good camp with heaps of obvious upside. But you’d heard from his team that he was the real deal, and as he kept climbing the ladder, he continued winning, beating more and more established opponents until he was fighting for the title.
You know how the rest has played out.
Now here’s Brady, sporting a 14-0 record with four wins in the UFC, having beaten Court McGee and Ismail Naurdiev to start before submitting Christian Aguilera and Jake Matthews in consecutive outings. He trains with a great team, you’re hearing knowledgeable folks like Paul Felder speak about his abundant upside, and he just looks like one of those dudes that could suddenly turn up in the thick of the title chase without anyone really noticing.
The Matthews one is the one that really stands out to me, because while he’s never made a real consistent run, the Australian is a legit athlete and an excellent grappler, and Brady dominated him on the canvas. Now he’s paired off with Chiesa in what his his version of Usman’s Demian Maia fight — the matchup against a more established fighter who could, in theory, make things difficult for you in your preferred area.
This is a perfect step up for the unbeaten fighter from Philadelphia and one that will tell us a great deal about his future, Chiesa’s future, and potentially shift some things around in the 170-pound rankings heading into the final month of the year.
Rani Yahya vs. Kyung Ho Kang
Q: Do you want proof of how deep and talented bantamweight is right now?
D’you know that these two veterans are a combined 7-2-1 over the last four years?
I know that’s not a ton of fights, and not many of the people they’ve faced are still on the roster, but that only further proves my point because when Rani Yahya and Kyung Ho Kang are the guys you have to beat in order to maintain gainful employment in the UFC, that’s a tremendously high bar and indicative of a freakishly deep division. Without looking, I would say there are probably 40 legitimately quality bantamweights on the UFC roster right now, which is insane, especially in comparison to some of the shallower divisions out there.
I’m looking at you, middleweight.
Yahya is one of the few specialists remaining in the UFC, a suffocating grappler with very rudimentary striking, who still gets the job done more often than naught. Kang is one of those toolsy, competitive mid-pack fighters that presents a test to everyone he shares the Octagon with every time out.
They’re not contenders, but they’re skilled and dangerous and this is a super-interesting matchup.
Joanne Wood vs. Taila Santos
Q: New name, new fighter?
Joanne Calderwood is now Joanne Wood, having tied the knot to her long-time beau and head coach John Wood of Syndicate MMA a few weeks back.
Congrats kids!
While I still like the idea of going by the name Joanne Wood-Calderwood just so she could introduce herself as, “Wood… Calderwood” like she was Bond, James Bond, the thing I’m really looking forward to seeing most is if the long-time contender can take another step forward in her career and get the big win that has long evaded her grasps.
While JoJo is the A-Side of this pairing and ranked five spots ahead of Santos, this is reminiscent of last weekend’s clash between Andrea Lee and Cynthia Calvillo, and the general sameness I feel exists in the flyweight division at the moment:
Valentina Shevchenko is in a class of her own at the top of the division. Jessica Andrade stands alone as the No. 1 contender. And then everyone from No. 2 down to No. 9 feels pretty interchangeable, and there are several in the pack from Nos. 10 to 15 that simply need a chance to prove they’re deserving of being in the next group up, which means 2-15 is kind of fluid, at least to me.
No matter her surname, these are the fights where the 34-year-old Scottish veteran has historically come up short. Yes, I think she deserved the nod last time out against Lauren Murphy, but that one outcome doesn’t erase the numerous other times she’s been close and faltered, unless that fight and the overall greater aggression she’s shown in her last two outings is real and lasting.
Wood needs to be a forward fighter — she needs to be the one setting the tempo, dictating the terms of engagement, and forcing her opponents to work off their back foot, because when she’s getting pushed back, she’s more susceptible to being taken down and generally swarmed. She needs space to use her kicks and range attacks, and if she doesn’t control that distance, she struggles.
So I’m desperate to see if she can bring the fight to Santos because a win here could very well set her up for a championship opportunity in 2022.
Davey Grant vs. Adrian Yanez
Q: Can Adrian Yanez continue his ascent at bantamweight?
Few athletes work their way up the divisional ladder without taking a backwards step, and if there is one point where emerging talents traditionally stumble, it’s when they go from facing fellow hopefuls to fighting seasoned, tenured veterans.
Having logged three straight wins (and finishes and bonuses) against fellow neophytes to begin his UFC tenure, Adrian Yanez takes that next step forward this weekend against Davey Grant, a game, well-rounded veteran whose only setback in the last two years came in a fun, competitive fight with newly-minted contender Marlon “Chito” Vera last time out.
I’m a big believer in Yanez’s talent and intangibles, and believe he should, at the very least, be able to carve out a career similar to Jim Miller or Joe Lauzon, where he’s in the mix for a long time. If everything clicks and he continues progressing, I believe he can be a contender, and I think this weekend’s clash with Grant will help clarify which of those two is more likely and exactly where he’s at in his development.
There are pros and cons to the opening round of Yanez’s last fight with Randy Costa, and I don’t know which side to give more weight. He got pieced up early and left bloodied, but he also settled himself and got back into the fight before the round was over, though I’m not sure he gets the same opportunity against an experienced hand, which is why I’m so curious to see what happens when he gets in there with Grant on Saturday.
As I mentioned earlier, bantamweight is the best it has ever been right now and the competition for those spots in the lower-third of the rankings is fierce, but a fourth straight win would put Yanez in that range and set him up for another step up in competition to start next year.
Tucker Lutz vs. Pat Sabatini
Q: Is Tucker Lutz the next “Didn’t See Him Coming” Guy at Featherweight?
Tucker Lutz has very little buzz, but he might be someone folks need to keep an eye on in the featherweight division.
After losing his pro debut, the Maryland-based Contender Series graduate has rattled off a dozen consecutive victories, including a good win over durable veteran Kevin Aguilar in his promotional debut earlier this year. Two things:
(1) You don’t win 12 consecutive fights at any level, against any kind of competition if you’re not a skilled, talented fighter
(2) Beating Kevin Aguilar is one of those “sit up and pay attention” type of wins for me
This weekend, Lutz steps in with Pat Sabatini, who is 2-0 in the UFC and has a little but more buzz because he was CFFC featherweight champ and is one of those Philly boys that always gets love from Philly’s own Paul Felder, which then resonates throughout the broadcast team and the MMA community as a whole. Plus, he’s coming off a first-round heel hook finish and those things stick in your mind more than solid decision wins over experienced veterans.
But “Top Gun Tuck” might be one of those guys that makes some noise despite being a no flash, nothing crazy about him competitor. He has sound fundamentals, a good gas tank, and plays to his strengths, and if he can topple Sabatini on Saturday, you might want to put a little asterisk next to his name as someone to keep tabs on going forward.
Rafa Garcia vs. Natan Levy
Q: What to expect from Natan Levy?
Syndicate MMA representative Natan Levy looked very good in his last fight on Dana White’s Contender Series, securing a third-round submission win over Shaheen Santana and a chance to compete in the Octagon, but he’s been out of action since.
An injury scuttled his scheduled debut in April against Austin Hubbard, and now he returns to this weekend against Rafa Garcia and I am genuinely struggling to figure out what is reasonable to expect from a 30-year-old newcomer with just six professional appearances under his belt. The undefeated karate black belt looks the part, but having an action figure build and being a legitimate prospect in the UFC are two different things, and I’m having a hard time sorting out my feelings about the Irsaeli newcomer.
We talk a lot about the level of competition athletes face on the way up, and on paper, Levy looks like he faced a good slate; his opponents had a combined 17-7 record at the time they fought. But another piece you also have to look at is how things have gone since those fights because then you see the six guys Levy has beaten are a combined 1-11 since sharing the cage with the UFC newcomer, which forces you to re-think the whole “he faced solid competition” piece to it.
And now he’s facing someone in Rafa Garcia that genuinely faced some quality competition before getting to the UFC and has already logged 30 minutes inside the Octagon. Garcia faced UFC alums/fighters Humberto Bandanay, Erick Gonzalez, and Estevan Payan in his last three fights before his short-notice debut, and carried a 12-0 mark into his first UFC appearance. He’s 0-2 since getting called up, but losing to Nasrat Haqparast on short notice doesn’t carry major demerits and the fact that he gutted out a decision loss against Chris Gruetzemacher last time out speaks to his tenacity, because he got clocked early.
I love fights like this because it’s going to tell us right away whether Levy has real upside or is just another guy with a shiny record forged against overmatched competition.
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Loopy Godinez
Q: How could you possibly not love Loopy Godinez?
This weekend, Loopy Godinez makes her third appearance inside the Octagon in 43 days, stepping in for Cheyanne Vlismas opposite Loma Lookboonmee. Doing so means the Mexican-Canadian grappler shatters the record for the fewest number of days between three appearances in the modern UFC.
This is Godinez’s fourth appearance of the year, and the hilarious (in a great way) part is that she was ready to fight Sarah Alpar on short notice just a couple weeks after losing her debut as well, so she it could have been her fifth had she gotten cleared to compete, which is insane considering she debuted in the middle of April.
And here’s the other thing: Godinez is a legit prospect.
I thought she did enough to beat Jessica Penne in her debut (as did the majority of the media members scoring the fight at home) and she loses no marks for moving up a division and losing to Luana Carolina last time out, especially considering she won the first round. Now back at strawweight, she has another tough assignment opposite Loma Lookboonmee, who has looked solid in her three victories, and a chance to bring her UFC record level at 2-2.
Normally I would add “to close out the year” or something like that on the end of that last sentence, but knowing Godinez, she’ll try to get on one of the three December cards, so I decided not to.
But that willingness to compete, to challenge herself, to get in there with limited prep time is endearing and commendable, especially when you consider the staggering number of competitors that claim to be down to fight “Anyone, Anywhere, Any Time” and then never follow through.
Godinez is really about that life and if you’re not a fan as a result, I don’t know what to tell you.
Fares Ziam vs. Terrance McKinney
Q: Can Terrance McKinney keep rolling?
Now, let me be clear: I don’t expect Terrance McKinney to come out on Saturday and record another seven-second finish. I don’t even think it’s fair to expect a first-round finish or a finish of any kind because Fares Ziam is a talented prospect in his own right.
But McKinney has already logged four victories in 2021, including his incredible debut finish of Matt Frevola on short notice at UFC 263, and by all accounts, his striking isn’t even the best part of his game, so you can see why I’m intrigued to see what “T. Wrecks” brings to the cage this weekend.
The Spokane, Washington resident has an incredible story, and I spoke with him, his head coach Pablo Alfonso, and Michael Chiesa about it all shortly after his stunning debut, and you’re going to hear plenty about it Saturday and in the future if he keeps winning, but the thing that stood out most to me is that all three of them genuinely believe McKinney has a chance to be special.
When you’ve done this as long as I have and spoken to as many coaches and fighters as I have, you know when someone is saying something to simply be kind or lift up one of their guys, and when they’re really serious and would have the same thoughts if they had zero connection to that athlete, and the way Alfonso and Chiesa speak about McKinney lands in the latter category. Both see him as the quintessential “if he can stay focused” type of special prospect, and it’s hard to disagree with that assessment.
He has tremendous upside and I cannot wait to see him back in there on Saturday.
Cody Durden vs. Aoriqileng
Q: Am I missing something when it comes to the odds in this fight?
I’m writing this at 9:41am PST on Wednesday, November 17 (Happy Birthday Ramiz!) and according to Bet365, Cody Durden is a -150 favorite over Aoriqileng, who comes back as a +125 underdog.
What am I missing?
Durden is 0-1-1 in the UFC and returning for the first time in nearly a year after suffering a major knee injury. Aoriqileng is 0-1 in the UFC, having ran level with “El Jefe” Jeff Molina for two rounds in their joint debuts in April before the rising star turned it on in the third to claim the decision win.
I get that the Chinese contingent that has made its way into the Octagon and onto Dana White’s Contender Series this year hasn’t done particularly well, and most of their records feel dramatically inflated, but this feels like a “live dog” situation to me just based on activity and the pressure we know Aoriqileng is going to put on Durden out of the gates.
This feels like one of those “give the edge to the American guy” situations where Durden’s draw with Chris Gutierrez, which took place on August 1, 2020 at bantamweight, is being valued greater than what Aoriqileng did in a losing effort six months ago, and if you’re the betting type, this might could be a place for you to make a little money is all I’m saying.
Note: I’m not responsible for your losses if Durden comes out and wins; I’m just offering thoughts and opinions… I’m not telling you what to do.
Sean Soriano vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Q: Can Sean Soriano finally get his first UFC win?
Sean Soriano arrived in the UFC for the first time with an 8-0 record and as one of the top emerging names from The Blackzilians, which was one of the top teams in the sport at the time. Over the next 20 months, he fought Tatsuya Kawajiri, Chas Skelly, and Charles Rosa, losing all three bouts and getting finished in the first and the third contests, resulting in his release from the promotion.
He got the opportunity to return to the Octagon earlier this year in a short notice assignment up a division against Christos Giagos, and he looked sharp in the opening round, hurting “The Spartan” on the feet with the crisp, technical boxing that has become his calling card as both a fighter and a budding coach at Sanford MMA, the two steps forward evolutionary successor to The Blackzilians in Deerfield Beach, Florida.
But Giagos rallied and finished Soriano in the second, and now the 32-year-old returns to action against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke in hopes of avoiding an 0-5 run under the UFC banner.
Nuerdanbieke is one of those Chinese newcomers I was talking about above — the ones that have struggled this year and have inflated records — so this is about as favorable a matchup as Soriano could have asked for as he looks to finally break into the win column, and I’m genuinely curious to see if he’ll be able to keep that pressure out of his head when he steps in there on Saturday.
Think about it: you spend a bunch of years outside the promotion, but attending a bunch of events as a corner, and all your people are constantly advocating for you to get another shot, bringing up the nasty slate you faced the first time around and how much you’ve grown since then. You finally get that opportunity, albeit on short notice and up a division, but after a good start, you wilt and catch another loss. Now you’re facing the first “guy you should clearly beat” in your UFC career, but you’re 0-4 inside the Octagon, and only 6-4 in your last 10…
That’s the kind of thing that can mess with your mind if you’re not careful.
Luana Pinheiro vs. Sam Hughes
Q: Is Luana Pinheiro already a Top 15 strawweight?
With all due respect to Sam Hughes, I was bummed to learn Jessica Penne was forced out of her scheduled pairing with Luana Pinheiro this weekend because I really wanted to see how the Brazilian acquitted herself against a crafty veteran like Penne after looking very good in the first four minutes of her debut against Randa Markos earlier this year.
I’ve spoken with Pinheiro before both of her UFC appearances to date, and she’s ultra-confident about her progression and where she fits in the division already, and I was really interested to see her test that against Penne.
What I really like about Pinheiro is her aggressiveness — she charged across the cage and took the fight to Markos in her debut, landing big shots on the feet and a couple high amplitude throws before getting kicked in the face when she was down, resulting in the fight being halted. You can see that she’s an athlete, and that she’s not worried about getting in there and mixing things up, which isn’t the case with everyone when they first get into the UFC, especially if they’ve steamrolled everyone the way Pinheiro has over her last bunch of fights.
If she wins here, a date with a ranked opponent should be next, and that will be one I circle on my calendar as soon as it is announced.