UFC Vegas 43: Punch Drunk Predictions
Who will emerge victorious and who will be vanquished when the action hits the Octagon on Saturday?
You knew it was going to happen, right?
You knew that as soon as I said, “Things have been going well with these picks lately,” I was going to run into an event that reminds me to just shut up and keep making picks.
The positives of last weekend’s 5-6 result is that it wasn’t worse and it didn’t knock my percentage down much, so the target of finishing the year above .600 is still very much in reach, but I’m not thinking about that.
All I’m concerned with is breaking down these fights correctly and making these picks.
One fight at a time. One week at a time.
Here we go.
Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate
I’ve always viewed Ketlen Vieira as a fringe contender — someone that could earn a title shot under the right circumstances, with the right wins, at the right time, but not someone that was going to beat everyone in her path and leave no other options; kind of like when Anthony Smith made his run to challenge for the light heavyweight title.
And this the kind of matchup that was always going to stand in her way.
There is no area where I think she is demonstratively better than Miesha Tate, while there are spots that I believe the former champion holds a considerable edge. Tate has made steady improvements to her striking over the years and looked her best on the feet last time out, fighting for the first time in four-plus years. Additionally, her conditioning and ability to go five rounds is established, while one of the knocks on Vieira has long been that she fades in fights… three-round fights… and this one is scheduled for five five-minute rounds.
While I don't think this ends as abruptly as Vieira’s loss to Irene Aldana, I don’t believe it will be as close as her fight with Yana Kunitskaya either. I believe the Brazilian will run level with the former titleholder for the first two rounds, but the later it goes, the more Tate will pull away, reaching a point where she is clearly in control, and where she may be able to secure a finish.
Prediction: Miesha Tate by unanimous decision
Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady
I don’t know with this fight.
Of all the fights on this main card, this is the one I’ve had the hardest time sorting out because it feels dismissive in a way to just pick Brady as if Chiesa is just some dude standing in his way, but at the same time, have you been watching Sean Brady? That boy’s good!
I might get this all the way wrong, but I’m siding with Chiesa, and I think this will end up looking similar to his fight with Rafael Dos Anjos last January.
I know Brady has never been taken down in the UFC, but he’s also never fought someone as relentless with the takedowns and skilled enough to put them together as Chiesa, and once they get on the ground, Chiesa’s length and control on top are real weapons. He’s actually better when he’s not chasing submissions or doing too much hunting because he’s able to just grind guys out and minimize their opportunities to scramble or sweep and go on the offensive.
Chiesa took Dos Anjos down six times in that fight, and it became a “death by a thousand cuts” situation where he was so gassed by the start of the third that “Maverick” needed on early shot to put the former lightweight champ on the deck and grind out the round from top position. I think Chiesa is going to have to navigate some tricky spots early, but if he can time things up like he did against Luque (before it went sideways), I believe he’ll wear out the unbeaten emerging star and get a victory.
Prediction: Michael Chiesa by unanimous decision
Rani Yahya vs. Kyung Ho Kang
I may not be able to or interested in quitting Rani Yahya, but I also know when my man is beat.
Kang is demonstratively bigger than Yahya and should be able to work from the outside, sniping at the Brazilian grappler with long jabs, utilizing good movement and mechanics to avoid getting taken down. He’ll need to make sure to holster his kicking game because you know Yahya will be looking to turn every lazy kick into a chance to get his mitts on “Mr. Perfect,” but if the South Korean veteran can stay patient, stay smart, he should be able to win this one without much trouble.
Yahya is a surprisingly tough guy to put away, having been finished just three times in his career and not once since losing to Joseph Benavidez at WEC 45, so I think we’re going to the scorecards.
Prediction: Kyung Ho Kang by unanimous decision
Joanne Wood vs. Taila Santos
As much as I can see a way that Joanne Wood goes out here tomorrow afternoon and secures a decision win, the more likely scenario to me is that she ends up on the canvas in each round, stuck on bottom, unable to do much.
The trouble for the newly married flyweight stalwart is that she likes to throw kicks, and against Taila Santos, every kick is an invitation to get taken to the ground. The Brazilian doesn’t throw much volume on the feet, but she’s powerful and terrific from top position, registering nearly nine minutes of control time over her last three victories. Even if you spread that out evenly, it means she’s logging roughly 3/5 of each round in top position, leaving little time for opponents to do enough to win the frame.
As I said, I can see Wood winning if she maintains range and can find a way to land volume without being put on the deck, but even that’s tricky because Santos has a three-inch reach advantage, so Wood needs has to be in close quarters in order to really land anything of substance.
It kind of feels like the Scottish veteran missed her opportunities when she hustled into that Jennifer Maia fight and got hosed by the judges last time out, and I think this weekend turns into the point where these two switch positions in the rankings and we start looking at Santos as a legitimate contender.
Prediction: Taila Santos by unanimous decision
Davey Grant vs. Adrian Yanez
This should be all kinds of fun to kick off the main card and while I believe Adrian Yanez will get the job done, I don’t think Davey Grant is going to make it easy for the emerging star.
Both these men like to sling it, and neither is great at getting out of the way of the return fire, so I believe we’ll get some extended periods where they’re in the pocket hitting each other with big shots, but the differentiating factors, to me, are Yanez’s power and finishing instincts. Not only can he put you out with a single well-placed shot, but he’s also someone that does a very good job of recognizing when he’s got you hurt and getting you out of there, like he did with Randy Costa last time out.
Grant is tough as nails and if he lands the left hook that he put Martin Day and Jonathan Martinez down with, Yanez’s rapid rise up the rankings could be halted, but I think the more likely scenario is the promising Houston native settling into a groove late in the first and getting the British veteran out of there in the second to earn his fourth straight victory at the UFC APEX.
Prediction: Adrian Yanez by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Pat Sabatini def. Tucker Lutz
Rafa Garcia def. Natan Levy
Loopy Godinez def. Loma Lookboonmee
Terrance McKinney def. Fares Ziam
Aoriqileng def. Cody Durden
Sean Soriano def. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Luana Pinheiro def. Sam Hughes
2021 PDP Record: 243-157-5, 5 NC (.593)