UFC Vegas 44: Punch Drunk Predictions
Which bantamweight will put themselves in the thick of the championship chase with a victory on Saturday night?
Thirty-nine down, three to go in the UFC’s 2021 fight calendar, starting with a fun little collection of fights this weekend at the UFC APEX headlined by a terrific bantamweight scrap carrying legitimate championship implications.
I say it all the time, but this genuinely feels like another one of those events we’re going to end up looking back on late next year or perhaps into 2023 as the point where a couple of these fighters really graduated to being contenders or started making their run towards the top of their respective divisions.
We always seem to portray those moves has happening in a short span, but the reality is that Charles Oliveira’s run to the top of the lightweight division began four years ago with a win over Clay Guida. Dustin Poirier’s march to their championship fight next weekend began in 2017 with a gritty win over Jim Miller.
Ascents take time, and numerous fights, and some of the matchups on this card have the potential to be those jumping off points for a few emerging fighters.
This should be an entertaining night of action inside the Octagon, and one that could either produce a massive number of victories for the old prediction record or completely submarine my hopes of finishing the year with a .600 winning percentage.
Either way, I can’t wait.
Onto the picks!
Rob Font vs. Jose Aldo
I’ve been thinking about Aldo’s performance against Pedro Munhoz in August a lot this week because I wrote about the Brazilian legend and it was just a wonderful throwback performance where he beat Munhoz to the punch frequently and looked, dare I say, like the Jose Aldo of old, even though he looked like Old Jose Aldo a couple years earlier.
I’ve thought about it a lot because I love this matchup and know it’s a close matchup and couldn’t quite nail down who I was going to pick, and then Richard Mann came through with the latest offering from his newsletter and it helped me decide where I was going:
As great as Aldo looked again Munhoz, I don’t like this matchup for the former featherweight champion and it’s because of what Mann lays out in his piece.
Font is a much different type of striker than Munhoz — he works behind a terrific jab and moves well, cutting angles instead of operating in straight lines, and while I think Aldo will run level with him for the first couple of rounds (and maybe even win the first couple of rounds), this being a five-round fight favors Font. (Say that five times fast)
While I don’t think it will be as one-sided as his win over Cody Garbrandt earlier this year, I do believe Font can recreate that effort here, popping Aldo with long-range attacks that keep him out of trouble, but hitting him with enough volume that the few return shots that land aren’t enough to (a) do too much damage, and (b) sway the judges to siding with the veteran.
As we get into the latter stages of the fight, the volume starts piling up, Aldo starts slowing down, and Font starts pulling away.
Prediction: Rob Font by unanimous decision
Brad Riddell vs. Rafael Fiziev
This should be a super-competitive fight and I can see it playing out in many different ways, but when I force myself to narrow my thoughts down to one, I always land in the same place: Riddell by unanimous decision.
It’s not that I don’t think Fiziev can beat him (obviously he can) or that Riddell is significantly better in a vast number of areas (not the case), it’s that I believe Riddell is the more adaptable fighter of the two and when push comes to shove, I think he’ll turn this into a grimy battle contested in the clinch, along the fence, and on the ground kind of fight that will lead to a narrow win on the scorecards.
Now, Riddell needs to avoid the slow starts that have been a fixture of his UFC career thus far, and he can’t get into too many prolonged exchanges with Fiziev or else things could go sideways in a hurry, but if he approaches this the way he approached the Magomed Mustafaev fight or the Alex da Silva fight, he should be able to stifle the offensive output from “Ataman” and secure a fifth straight UFC win.
Prediction: Brad Riddell by unanimous decision
Clay Guida vs. Leonardo Santos
There is always the potential for Clay Guida to leave his neck exposed as he enters for a takedown, but as long as “The Carpenter” keeps his chin tucked and his head on the inside when he’s looking to put Leo Santos on the deck, I think his pressure and pace will allow him to get the job done this weekend.
Santos had a crazy run in the UFC prior to his last outing, going unbeaten in eight fights spread out over eight years, but he’s a low output fighter who fades the longer the fight goes, and now he’s stepping in with The Energizer Bunny.
I thought Guida did enough to deserve the nod against Mark O. Madsen earlier this year, and while Santos’ length could make those initial takedown attempts more difficult, I do believe that persistence and Guida’s constant presence in the Brazilian’s face will tire him out, leading to a clear victory for one of the most beloved and respected fighters in UFC history.
Prediction: Clay Guida by unanimous decision
Jimmy Crute vs. Jamahal Hill
This feels like the biggest coin-flip of the main card, as both are proven finishers and will be looking for a statement win after leaving the Octagon compromised last time out. When push comes to shove, I have to side with Crute, who I believe just has more weapons and more paths to victory than Hill does here.
There is just something about Hill’s nonchalance in his fight with Paul Craig in June that doesn’t sit well with me — he was too ready happy to grapple with the Scottish submission fighter, and even before that, he was just kind of content to come forward without offering much, leading to Craig being able to close the distance, drag the fight to the ground, and dislocate Hill’s left elbow after nearly doing the same thing on the right side first.
Crute has the kind of power in his hands that he can make you pay for coming forward without a sense of urgency or healthy dose of respect for the attacks coming your way, and he’s a very good grappler in his own right, having tapped by Craig and Michal Oleksiejczuk.
If Hill uses his reach advantage, maybe it’s different, but we haven’t seen that yet, and as such, I think he gets hit with something heavy coming forward, and Crute seals the deal on the canvas to get back in the win column, much to the chagrin of my friend Sean Sheehan, who is steadfast in his belief that Hill will one day be UFC light heavyweight champion.
Prediction: Jimmy Crute by submission
Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis
This is such a difficult fight to forecast because for as good as Allen has looked over his last two appearances, it was just over a year ago that he got thoroughly out-classed on the feet by Sean Strickland and Curtis is not even a month removed from stopping another promising middleweight and one of Allen’s teammates at Sanford MMA, Phil Hawes.
The odds are screaming for you to take Curtis, but Allen could just as well march out and turn in another dominant performance, finally showing the consistency that has been lacking throughout his career. Remember, this is a guy that only lost to future UFC talent when he was in his early 20s on the regional circuit, and is already 5-1 inside the Octagon, just a few weeks ahead of his 26th birthday.
I would like Curtis’ chances a little more if he were more of a forward fighter, rather than someone that is happy to hunt for counters and work off the back foot, because Allen isn’t as susceptible to the big shot as Hawes was and there is the possibility that the Louisiana native just builds and builds, mixing up his attacks, throwing in level changes, and works his way to a unanimous decision victory like he did over Curtis’ other teammate, Punahele Soriano.
This should be a captivating fight and I cannot wait to see how it plays out.
Prediction: Brendan Allen by unanimous decision
Bryan Barberena vs. Darian Weeks
Barberena goes from a date with grizzled veteran Matt Brown to squaring off with undefeated newcomer Darian Weeks, who was slated to appear on the Contender Series earlier this year, but was forced out after testing positive for COVID-19, much like Brown here.
I didn’t like Weeks’ chances in his proposed matchup with Josh Quinlan on a random Tuesday night in September and I like his chances against “Bam Bam” here even less. The guys he’s beaten on the way to his 5-0 record are 3-5-1 since, and that’s with a couple of them not having competed again, which is a reminder that not all pristine records shine the same.
Barberena is a tough out for anyone, and coming off a gritty battle with Jason Witt earlier this year in his first fight back after a near-death medical situation last November, I full expect him to come out and get a finish here. He’s too tough, too grimy, too focused to mess around and let this be competitive.
Prediction: Bryan Barberena by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Maki Pitolo def. Dusko Todorovic
Manel Kape def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Jake Matthews def. Jeremiah Wells
Cheyanne Vlismas def. Mallory Martin
Alonzo Menifield def. William Knight
Claudio Puelles def. Chris Gruetzemacher
Azamat Murzakanov def. Jared Vanderaa
Alex Morono def. Mickey Gall
Louis Smolka def. Vince Morales
2021 PDP Record: 249-162-5, 5 NC (.591)