UFC Vegas 45: Punch Drunk Predictions
For the final time in 2021, it's time to make some predictions!
It all comes down to this…
My quest since late September was to go on a strong enough run of picks to where I could finish the year with a .600 winning percentage or better, and after a 12-2 mark last week at UFC 269, the opportunity is there if I can put together another strong slate of picks for tomorrow’s 2021 finale.
I need 10 wins or better to eclipse my target.
While I’ve only managed to get 10 wins or more five times this year, two of those instances happened in the last five events, including a season’s best last week, so I’m going to be positive, have faith in myself, and hope for the best.
As always, I’ve had a ton of fun putting together the Punch Drunk Predictions all year and hope I provided you with a few laughs and more than a couple winners.
Thanks for checking out the picks all year.
Now let’s see if we can’t wrap things up with a banner night!
Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus
Lewis is always capable of landing that one crushing blow that shifts the fight in his favor, but there is too much evidence supporting Daukaus coming out ahead here.
The former Philadelphia police officer is the quicker, more active of the two, and guys like that have been a problem for Lewis over the years. Additionally, he’s proven to have very real power, which means that in addition to being able to pick at Lewis from range and land volume, he has the pop to connect with the kind of blow that gets “The Black Beast” covering up and looking for an exit.
Daukaus knows he needs to be mindful of Lewis’ power at all times, but he should be able to come out quickly, get Lewis backing up and covering up, and get him out of there with surprising ease.
Prediction: Chris Daukaus by TKO
Stephen Thompson vs. Belal Muhammad
Both of these guys are class acts that I want nothing but the best for personally and professionally. It pains me to have to pick against one of them, but since I refuse to deploy the “I hope both teams have fun” approach, I’m going to side with Thompson.
It’s too easy to say Muhammad will replicate Gilbert Burns’ approach because plenty of other people knew the best path to victory was wrestling “Wonderboy” against the fence and couldn’t get it done, and Muhammad is more of a pressure, pace, relentless grinder than a “take you down and keep you there” wrestler, at least in my estimation.
Additionally — and this is no knock on “Bully B” — I just need to see him beat a guy at this level before I can pick him to beat guys at this level. It’s not that I can’t see a path to victory, it’s just I’m more of a visual learner and someone that tends to play it safe, so when there isn’t overwhelming evidence to suggest it’s going to happen, I’ll lean with the safer pick.
Besides, it’s not like Thompson has been showing considerable signs of decline or anything — he thoroughly out-worked Geoff Neal at this time last year and pick apart Vicente Luque the year before that. He’s getting older, but he’s still a tough puzzle to solve and a capable contender, and I think he does enough to edge out Muhammad on Saturday.
Prediction: Stephen Thompson by unanimous decision
Amanda Lemos vs. Angela Hill
I think Amanda Lemos is a Top 5 fighter at strawweight and this fight will help convince others of the same thing.
As game as Hill is at all times, the power Lemos has displayed in her two victories earlier this year is a game-changer in a division where sudden power like that is in short supply. I’ve watched her finish of Montserrat Conejo a dozen times in the last week and it still makes me shake my head each time because it’s so crisp, so quick, such perfect movement.
Lemos has some grappling skills at her disposal as well, which I think is part of why she’s working so confidently on the feet of late; she’s not worried about getting taken down, knows her power is a difference-maker, and it fighting with the belief that she’s one of the best in the division.
Hill is hard to finish, but I think Lemos gets in done here.
Prediction: Amanda Lemos by TKO
Raphael Assuncao vs. Ricky Simón
I genuinely feel bad for Assuncao, who dealt with injuries, bad timing, and being the odd man out during the prime of his career, and is now on the backside of things, entering on a three-fight slide that I think gets extended to four on Saturday.
As much as I can see the Brazilian snatching up Simón’s neck if he gets sloppy on one of his entries, I think the man with the best mullet in the UFC has cleaned things up considerably over the last few fights and will simply be able to work at a pace that Assuncao will not be able to match. The veteran has never been a high volume striker or someone that is going to put you away with a single shot, so Simón should be able to close the distance and turn this into a wrestling match, widening the gap the longer the fight goes.
I know it doesn’t need to be said, but I’ll say it anyway: bantamweight is the best division in the sport right now and this is just another reminder of that.
Prediction: Ricky Simón by unanimous decision
Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
I think Gamrot is the real deal and someone that is going to be making a case for title contention by the end of next year, and I think he’ll convince a lot of people of the same on Saturday by running through Ferreira.
As much as I think the Brazilian is a legitimate Top 15 talent, this feels akin to each of his two bouts with Beneil Dariush, where the Kings MMA man showed each time that he’s simply a level above Ferreira.
On the feet, Gamrot is the more polished, more dangerous striker, and while Ferreira is a very good offensive grappler, we saw him struggle in scrambles with Gregor Gillespie last time out and Gamrot is more than capable of moving with him on the canvas. Athletically, the Polish emerging talent is on a different level than the Fortis MMA rep, and I think once this gets in to the second half of the fight, Gamrot will pull away and find a finish.
Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot by TKO
Cub Swanson vs. Darren Elkins
I predict blood.
I predict violence.
I predict at least one moment where we all ask, “How is Darren Elkins still coming forward?” and I predict we’re all going to be showering these two veterans with loads of praise on Twitter before, during, and after this fight.
And I predict that Swanson gets a stoppage win as well.
Looks, Elkins is a goddamn zombie, so I get that calling for him to get finished sounds crazy, but this feels to me like one of those spots where Swanson will be able to hurt him on the feet and do a good enough job of avoiding prolonged grappling exchanges that he’ll be able to steadily clobber the Team Alpha Male representative.
This fight gives me Swanson vs. Daniel Pineda vibes, and I believe “Killer Cub” will finish it in similar fashion.
Prediction: Cub Swanson by TKO
Preliminary Card Picks
Gerald Meerschaert def. Dustin Stoltzfus
Victor Henry def. Raoni Barcelos
Justin Tafa def. Harry Hunsucker
Melissa Gatto def. Sijara Eubanks
Charles Jourdain def. Andre Ewell
Raquel Pennington def. Macy Chiasson
Don’Tale Mayes def. Josh Parisian
Jordan Leavitt def. Matt Sayles
2021 PDP Record: 267-171-5, 5 NC (.596)