UFC Vegas 47: Punch Drunk Predictions
Will Jack Hermansson make it two-in-a-row or does Sean Strickland keep rolling?
January was a little appetizer — a nice two-card taster to tide everyone over before the February and March smorgasbord opened up.
This weekend’s fight card in Las Vegas is the first of eight straight Saturdays featuring UFC action, which includes a pair off pay-per-view events, the return to London, and the first “on the road” Fight Night show since Charles Oliveira tapped out Kevin Lee in an empty arena in Brazil when we were all just learning about the coronavirus and had no idea what we were going to be dealing with for the next two years.
While short on ranked competitors, this weekend’s lineup is long on competitive fights, with only three contests featuring fighters that are better than a -250 betting favourite, according to Bet365.com.
That makes the task before me here a little more difficult, but who doesn’t love a challenge? The first two events of 2022 were flush with closely matched battles and we’ve done pretty well so far, so let’s see if we can keep things rolling with another quality night of results as we kick off this bountiful stretch of UFC action.
Let’s go!
Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland
When you watch Strickland’s four fights since returning to the Octagon and the middleweight division, there aren’t a lot of highlights that jump off the page — he simply marches forward, throwing a high volume of strikes, and is able to maintain that volume round-after-round, until either the final horn sounds or his opponent wilts.
But here’s the thing: that’s really difficult to do at these higher levels, and it might actually be more effective and productive from a results standpoint than having flashy kicks or being super-well-rounded offensively.
Strickland is able to weaponize his pace and use his persistent pressure as a way to augment his defensive shortcomings, accepting that he’s going to get hit from time-to-time, but trusting that his activity and constant presence in his opponent’s face is going to limit the attacks coming back his way. If they’re going to wrestle, it’s off the back foot, rather than driving forward through power doubles because he doesn’t give them space to be able to drive through a power double, and his defence is sound enough that he can stuff middling attempts made in an effort to change the flow of a fight.
Hermansson is a legitimate Top 10 middleweight, however he just might be one of those fighters destined to reside in the 5-8 range, rather than someone that can make a real push for title contention. He’s shown resiliency and durability in the past, has a nasty guillotine that he can get into quickly and efficiently, and possesses a very good sense of the moment, turning up the pressure and pace when warranted, rather than chasing things that aren’t there… but this just feels like a bad matchup for him.
Forward pressure and clean boxing mixed with a little in-fight trash talking produce another Strickland victory.
Prediction: Sean Strickland
Punahele Soriano vs. Nick Maximov
This one hinges entirely on how well Maximov can successfully wrestle and if his gas tank holds up better than it did against Cody Brundage back in September, because if this fight stays standing, he’s getting touched up and taken out.
Maximov completed only four takedowns in his debut, but attempted 15, while grinding out nearly 10 minutes of control time, which certainly contributes to why he was so gassed in the latter stages of the fight. But that’s his game, that’s who he is as a fighter, and while some of those late-fight struggles can get chalked up to being 24 and just seven fights into his pro career, it’s also an “understanding yourself and your opponent” issue that he’s going to need to have correct if he wants to be successful on Saturday.
Soriano got boxed up last time against Brendan Allen, but I believe he has more tools at his disposal than Maximov, including enough wrestling to avoid some of the early takedown attempts and tax the Nick Diaz Academy product for being in range. He’s clearly the more powerful striker of the two, and although he can get a little locked in to hunting power shots, the six-month break since his last fight feels like ample time to have addressed some of the issues from the fight with Allen and produce a much better showing here.
While I do think Maximov will have some success in terms of getting Soriano to the deck early, the Hawaiian should be able to make him work enough that he gets tired, and when that happens, the momentum will shift in Soriano’s favour.
Prediction: Punahele Soriano
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlston Harris
Here are the different ways I can see this fight playing out, with corresponding “likelihood” percentages:
Harris gets another first-round finish (10%)
Harris gets a finish later in the fight (10%)
Harris wins a decision after an entertaining, competitive fight (10%)
Rakhmonov gets another first-round finish (10%)
Rakhmonov gets a finish later in the fight (30%)
Rakhmonov wins a decision after an entertaining, competitive fight (30%)
Yes, I see Rakhmonov winning this fight 70% of the time, which, to be clear, is a reflection of how highly I think of the unbeaten 27-year-old and not, by any means, a slight on Harris, who I believe will continue to show he’s a quality mid-pack welterweight.
What I’m most looking forward to seeing is how Rakhmonov gets the victory, because Harris has been great through his first two UFC appearances against lesser opposition, and has won nine of his last 10. But his one loss is to the best opponent he’s faced during that stretch (Jarrah Hussein Al-Silawi) and I’m curious to see if “Nomad” can get in there and dominate once again.
I think we see Rakhmonov work to find where he’s most comfortable in this pairing through the opening five minutes, after which he’ll control things. I’m not sure if he gets a finish or not, but the result shouldn’t be in doubt if it goes the distance.
Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov
Sam Alvey vs. Brendan Allen
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m actually tempted to pick Sam Alvey.
I know he hasn’t won a fight since June 2018 (holy shit!), but he had a full camp, is a gritty cuss, and Brendan Allen has been known to — and these are his words, not mine — “shit the bed” from time-to-time. Plus, Allen was kinda sorta training from the sounds of it, and while even a marginally prepared 16-25 middleweight should beat Sam Alvey at this point, I have this weird feeling that Allen enters over-confident despite his lack of actual prep, gets tagged, and gets finished.
But skill-for-skill, talent-for-talent, the 26-year-old Sanford MMA representative is the better fighter, and as long as he doesn’t go out there and act like Alvey has no business being in the cage with him, Allen should be able to get back into the win column this weekend. I think it behooves him to look to grapple, since he’s quite good on the ground and less likely to get stung with something when he’s initiating grappling exchanges and hunting submissions, but again, this feels like one of those bouts where he just might try to do too much, which could make things interesting.
Prediction: Brendan Allen
Tresean Gore vs. Bryan Battle
I don’t know why Battle is the underdog in this fight.
I guess it’s because Gore has a little pop and put Gilbert Urbina away in a more timely fashion when they fought in the semifinals, but he hasn’t fought anyone that currently owns a professional victory as a mixed martial artist, is coming off a knee injury that forced him out of this pairing when it was intended to happen at the end of August, and hasn’t had a non-TUF fight since October 2020.
And oh by the way, I think Battle has a chance to be a pretty solid middleweight down the line too.
I actually really liked what I saw from Battle in his win over Urbina, with his understanding of the situation when he got stung early and wherewithal to quickly shift into recovery mode standing out the most. That’s one of those high Fight IQ things for me and to see it from a relative novice, in a big moment, on the biggest stage is a real “we might have something here” alert for me.
Maybe Gore comes out, looks like a million bucks, and I look like an idiot, but I believe Battle has more avenues to victory, a greater understanding of who he is as a fighter, and how to adapt inside the Octagon, all of which will combine to lead him to victory this weekend.
Prediction: Bryan Battle
Julian Erosa vs. Steven Peterson
Is it weird that this is the fight I struggled with the most on this main card?
Here’s my dilemma: Erosa is largely a “kill or be killed” fighter, while Peterson is notoriously difficult to put away, but he also hasn’t been a big finisher, at least not against the best competition he’s faced.
That leads me to think we’re going to get a 15-minute battle, and in a fight like that, I’m not sure if I should favour the guy with the more dynamic offence and the greater chance to find a finish or the guy that has more frequently shown he’s capable of going the distance in a gruelling, drawn-out battle?
I’m siding with Erosa, as I think his aggressive, attacking style will put Peterson on his heels. If it doesn’t create opportunities for “Juicy J” to finish, it will have him ahead on the cards if things go the distance, as Peterson can be hesitant with his output, especially when getting pressed. “Ocho” missing weight by a considerable margin for the second straight fight only cements my position further.
Prediction: Julian Erosa
Preliminary Card Picks
Miles Johns def. John Castaneda
Hakeem Dawodu def. Michael Trizano
Marc-Andre Barriault def. Chidi Njokuani
Jason Witt def. Philip Rowe
Alexis Davis def. Julija Stoliarenko
Danilo Marques def. Jailton Almeida
Malcolm Gordon def. Denys Bondar
2022 PDP Record: 15-6-0 (.714)
2021 PDP Record: 278-173-5, 5 NC (.603)