UFC Vegas 48: Punch Drunk Predictions
Can Johnny Walker get back into the win column or will Jamahal Hill score the biggest win of his career?
D’you wanna know what’s wild? Through the first four events of 2022, I’ve gotten two-thirds of my predictions correct… and it’s still not quite where I want to be for the year.
There have been 48 bouts take place in the Octagon thus far, and I’ve picked 32 of them correctly, which is great, but it’s also two wins shy of the 7/10 that I would like to get correct over the the entire campaign, and each event that goes by where I slip further away from reaching that number, the more difficult it’s going to be to get back there.
Two things that I have been thinking since punching last week’s totals into the spreadsheet that I use to keep track of everything from this year:
(1) I can tell you the two picks that I wish I had changed that would have me a couple percentage points above that .700 winning percentage for the year (Calvin Kattar over Giga Chikadze and Jeremiah Wells over Blood Diamond), and
(2) Cards like this are potentially disastrous when you’re trying to hit at a real high clip in straight up picks because as confident as I am in my selections this week, it also feels like the kind of show where chaos could very well reign supreme.
Let’s hope I’m wrong on the second part and the good times keep on rolling.
Here we go!
Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill
Breaking this down on the Severe MMA Preview Show, my guy Harry Powell (follow him, he’s brilliant) put it best when he said there are four ways this could play out. Either:
(1) Johnny Walker lands something crazy
(2) Jamahal Hill catches him when he’s doing something crazy
(3) Jamahal Hill drags him late and gets it done over those five rounds, or
(4) Johnny Walker turns into the guy that he really should be and he’s patient, picks his moments to explode (as Sean Denny said), drains the gas tank of Jamahal Hill and shows that he has a complete MMA game.
Of those four scenarios, I’m throwing out No. 4 because I don’t think Johnny Walker has it in him to be a patient, short-burst, smart fighter, especially not in a fight where I think Hill will create scenarios that force Walker to make decisions amidst chaos, where he’s struggle to make good decisions in the past.
That leaves me at two-out-of-three scenarios favouring Hill, and while I’m very cognizant of the fact that Walker could land something funky like he did during his initial three-fight winning streak, the more likely scenario to me is Hill catching him at some point and putting him down.
I’m super-keen to see how this one plays out, but I have to go with Hill.
Prediction: Jamahal Hill
Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett
Kyle Daukaus is quite simply the better fighter.
Pickett enters on a two-fight winning streak, but neither outing inspired much hope in his ability to really build something of note and make genuine headway in the middleweight division. I know that Daukaus has struggled to a 1-2 record with one No Contest through his first four starts, but he’s much better than that record indicates, and I think that shows through in a major way here.
I fully expect Daukaus to turn this into a grappling match early and often, working towards and ultimately securing a finish somewhere in the second or third round.
Prediction: Kyle Daukaus
Parker Porter vs. Alan Baudot
It’s been well over two years since Alan Baudot won a fight, and that’s all the information I need to decide to pick Porter here.
Could “The Black Samurai” get the job done? Absolutely — he’s a skilled martial artist with eight wins in 11 starts, trains with an excellent team, and has displayed sound finishing skills in the past.
Will he though? I don’t think so. Not only did he get crushed by Tom Aspinall, but he had very little to offer Rodrigo Nascimento either, and “Ze Colmeia” is only okay and not as good as Porter.
That’s the other part of this, and perhaps the one I should have led off with: Porter has been solid over his last two fights, earning decision wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman in drawn out fights that became slogs where heart, toughness, and “who wants it more” wins the day, and each time, he’s wanted it more.
I don’t even think he’ll need to get to that point Saturday.
Prediction: Parker Porter
Jim Miller vs. Nikolas Motta
I really want to pick Miller and have the veteran pick up another quality win, but since I’m keeping track of these wins and losses this year, I have to go with Motta.
Sorry.
Motta is a little tank — a power hitter in the 155-pound weight class who used to train with the Iron Army and has been prepping for this one in Rio with Rafael Dos Anjos. It’s been a couple years since his DWCS win, which is a little bit of a concern, but he’s been pretty strong over his last six and has the type of arsenal that I think will be too much for Miller to overcome this weekend.
I could absolutely see Miller winning this fight — managing distance, avoiding prolonged exchanges, and grinding into the latter rounds would be the blueprint — but the probability is probably 60/40 Motta at worst, and so I’m siding with the Brazilian newcomer and my head rather than Jim F@&%ing Miller and my heart.
Prediction: Nikolas Motta
Joaquin Buckley vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
D’you know who wins here? The fans, that’s who, because these two are going to come out of their respective corners throwing heat and won’t stop until one of them is being cared for on the canvas by the referee and probably the ringside doctor.
While I acknowledge that Alhassan has absolutely devastating power, he’s giving up a couple inches in reach, and I think Buckley will be able to take advantage of that and secure the finish. He’s younger, quicker, and has a more diverse striking arsenal, with commensurate power and better conditioning, so if he needs to drag this into the second round, he can, and his power and everything else holds up better than Alhassan if that is the case.
Remember: Alhassan has never won a fight that went beyond the first five minutes, and while he knocked out Alessio Di Chirico, who knocked out Buckley at the start of last year, that doesn’t mean he’s going to do the same to Buckley. They’re completely different fights, and I don’t see Buckley making the same mistakes he made against the Italian on Saturday.
This is Buckley’s second camp as a full-time fighter, and I think it will be the one where we start seeing some truly appreciable gains for the powerful middleweight.
Prediction: Joaquin Buckley
Preliminary Card Picks
Jonathan Pearce def. Christian Rodriguez
Mario Bautista def. Jay Perrin
David Onama def. Gabriel Benitez
Jessica-Rose Clark def. Stephanie Egger
Chas Skelly def. Mark Striegl
Diana Belbita def. Gloria de Paula
Chad Anheliger def. Jesse Strader
2022 PDP Record: 32-16-0 (.667)
2021 PDP Record: 278-173-5, 5 NC (.603)