UFC Vegas 49: One Question for Every Fight
While the main event is rightfully garnering the lion's share of the attention, the rest of Saturday's fight card features plenty of intrigue
You already know what I’m going to say, don’t you?
February’s fourth and final event is a second consecutive Spencer Card and I couldn’t be more excited, even with the change atop the marquee.
While I’m going to be out of town when this fight card happens, you best believe that I’m recording the whole thing and eagerly looking forward to sitting down on Sunday evening and catching up on how things played out, because as much as the results and occasionally scanning Twitter will give me some understanding, I really do enjoy watching the fights themselves in order to pick up little pieces that may not get mentioned when describing the action.
There are a couple key divisional contests or quality matchups between interesting talents, and a few fights where I simply want a little more info on one or both of the competitors stepping into the cage.
I know I sound like a broken record with this stuff, but cards like this are so vital in figuring out more about these competitors and helping delineate things within a division than pay-per-view shows packed with matchups between ranked fighters.
This should be fun.
Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
Q: How good is Islam Makhachev?
I love that I can’t definitely answer this question, but I love that we’ve been given multiple opportunities to attempt to do so over the last 12 months.
Saturday’s fight will be be Makhachev’s four in the last calendar year. He won the first three by submission, facing increasingly established and dangerous foes, culminating with his first-round stoppage win over Dan Hooker at UFC 268 in Abu Dhabi. That effort once again re-set the baseline for where Makhachev’s skill level stands in comparison to the rest of the division, but it’s entirely possible that his ceiling sits considerably higher.
Speaking with him ahead of this fight and several of his recent outings, I can tell you that he believes there are still levels to his game that he hasn’t needed to show yet, and before you said, “Of course he does!” because we’re so used to athletes speaking boisterously about their own skills, even when unwarranted, let me make it clear that there is never an ounce of brashness to his statements. They’re very Khabib-like – declarative offerings like when he told Michael Johnson “I must fight for the title soon,” which is also something Makhachev believes about himself as well.
Here’s what I can say about Makhachev ahead of Saturday night: I think he’s the best lightweight in the world, and I’m eager to continue seeing him try to prove that and provide a clear answer to this question every couple of months.
Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman
Q: Is there more to come from Wellington Turman?
Because he’s been in the UFC for the better part of three years already, I tend to forget that Turman is only 25 years old.
While I put a great deal of importance on results, I also try to be cautious when it comes to reaching conclusions on fighters when they’re still south of 28, because I just feel like there have been too many instances of fighters struggling with consistency in those early years in the UFC, hitting their late 20s, and then growing in better versions of themselves, and I’d rather be a little hesitant dismissing someone than a little hasty.
Now, there are pieces of Turman’s game that worry me and make me feel like he might not progress too much more beyond this point, primarily that he doesn’t take shots well and has yet to show a clear, concise vision of how he wants to fight from one appearance to the next. He’s working with Glover Teixeira and his team, which feels like a positive, so I’m curious to see what changes, if any, he’s made since his foul-filled split decision win over Sam Alvey last year.
Cirkunov is a low-output grinder who can be dangerous when the fight hits the canvas, but has struggled against superior competition. This is a solid measuring stick matchup for Turman, and how this one shakes out will go a long way to clarifying whether it is reasonable to expect more from him in the future or if it’s time to cut bait with the 25-year-old Brazilian.
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Q: What will Ji Yeon Kim’s second fight with Syndicate MMA produce?
Kim enters Saturday’s contest on a two-fight skid and coming off a fight cancellation in January, when Poliana Botelho was forced out of their meeting at UFC 270 just 10 days ahead of the event.
But she felt she made progress in her first fight camp working with John Wood and the team at Syndicate in Las Vegas in the Molly McCann fight, and was eager to show the fruits of those labours against Botelho. While that fight was scrapped, she was rebooked quickly against Cachoeira and has had another month to get ready, and I’m excited to see the results.
Despite how the UFC introduces just about every fight, not everyone on the roster is a win or two away from being a contender, and some fighters will never get there, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t still be interested in seeing their development, and that’s where I’m at with Kim heading into this one.
Syndicate has a quality collection of female talent and Wood is a good coach, so I’m curious to see what he can bring out of the game, competitive South Korean, who was 3-2 in the UFC before losing her last two fights. Cachoeira is limited, but tough, and this fight should play out in a manner that suits Kim’s style, so if she’s made marked improvements, this should be where they shine through.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez
Q: How much of an impact did Alvarez’s weight misses have on his recent results?
There is no way to answer this with any certainty because he won the two fights before those two outings as well, finishing both Danilo Belluardo and Joseph Duffy in impressive fashion, but this is the on thing that has been stuck in the back of my head since this fight was announced.
Alvarez is huge for the division — six-foot-three with a 77-inch reach huge — and clearly skilled, both on the ground and on the feet, which on their own combine to make him a dangerous test for just about anyone. But each time I think about those last two wins over Alexander Yakovlev and Thiago Moises, I can’t bring myself to give Alvarez full marks for his performance because he failed to hit the mark on the scale on Friday morning. He missed by three-and-a-half pounds against Yakovlev, coming in at 159.5 pounds, which is egregious, and registered 157.5 pounds for his fight with Moises, which is not as bad, but still a full pound-and-a-half off the limit and a good distance away from championship weight.
There are surely reasons for the misses and they won’t be as prominent talking points for some if he comes in at 156 pounds or less on Friday, but to me, Friday and Saturday work in concert, and I’m eager to see what this week tells me about those previous fights.
Right now, I can’t shake the feeling that the weight advantage was a real factor in each of those contests. It may not have been the deciding factor, because Alvarez is skilled and does possess obvious gifts, but until I see him make weight and have a commensurate performance against a similarly talented lightweight, those two results will be a little suspect for me.
Armen Petrosyan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Q: In a wide open division, where does Gregory Rodrigues fit?
I’m starting to see why my guy Sean Sheehan despises the middleweight division so much.
Over the last couple weeks, it has become abundantly clear to me that the 185-pound ranks are a mess. While there are clear tiers of talent towards the top end of things and a couple intriguing emerging names to track (Andre Muniz, Nassourdine Imavov), everything south of about No. 12 in the rankings is a big ol’ hodgepodge of question marks, which is how I arrived here, wondering where Rodrigues fits.
On one hand, he’s won four straight, including both of his UFC starts, with his last win coming in an entertaining back-and-forth battle against Jun Yong Kim. On the other hand, he landed on the wrong end of a similar slobberknocker in the summer of 2020 against Jordan Williams, who then went 0-3 in the UFC, losing his last two by first-round finish.
I think there is a little something there, because he had won six straight before that fight with Williams and all four since, plus he’s aligned with the crew at Sanford MMA, which has to be a positive, but middleweight is that $1 mystery bag of candy I used to buy as a kid back in the day — sometimes it’s full of stuff you like and you’re pumped; other times it’s filled with candy corn and stale caramels and bullshit that goes straight in the trash.
What further complicates things is that I have no sense what a win over Petrosyan would mean, as the 31-year-old is a new graduate from DWCS and only seven fights into his MMA career. He looked okay in his contract-winning turn last fall, but the guy he beat (Kaloyan Kolev) built his record beating professional opponents and dudes that never fought again, so how can you put too much stock into that result? BAH!
As is often the case, I should probably just listen to Seanie Boy and not worry much at all about anything that happens outside of the Top 10 in the middleweight division; it’s just too much of a wasteland.
Zhu Rong vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Q: Which of these young lightweights has the brighter future?
I legitimately don’t know, but I’m sure interested to see what this one tells me about each kid.
Figuring out how to rate the collection of fighters coming out of the UFC Shanghai PI has been difficult because they often have a ton of fights, more losses than you want to see from a developing competitor, and there is no real way to know how to value a bunch of their victories. Zhu Rong is 21 years old with a 19-4 record, having fought a smorgasbord of opponents with varying amounts of experience.
And he lost to Rodrigo Vargas, who has never seemed all that good to me.
Bahamondes is tough to peg as well because while I love his toughness and height and that he trains with a good crew, he also doesn’t fight like a guy that is six-foot-three with long legs and a 75.5-inch reach. He had a seven-inch height advantage and nearly 10-inch reach advantage on John Makdessi and let “The Bull” win a striking battle… some of that I can chalk up to youth and inexperience, but how many tall dudes have we all sat around watching, saying, “Just wait until they figure out how to use their size!” and then they never figure out how to use their size?
I lean towards Bahamondes being the better prospect, but what happens Saturday will go a long way to helping me make my decision.
Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam
Q: What will Terrance McKinney do for an encore?
Terrance McKinney had one of the best individual debuts of 2021, rolling in on short notice and knocking out Matt Frevola with a clean one-two in seven seconds at UFC 263 in June. It was his fourth first-round stoppage win of the year and put the Spokane, Washington native on everyone’s radar as a fighter to watch.
He was scheduled to make his second appearance against Ziam in November, but the bout was pushed back to here after someone in McKinney’s corner tested positive for COVID. In the wake of the cancellation, “T. Wrecks” has posted some amusing memes about smashing Ziam, who enters on a two-fight winning streak, and done a great job of keeping himself in focus despite last fighting in June.
So what will he do for an encore now that he’s actually going to step into the Octagon again?
I’ve been waiting for his sophomore appearance since last summer, when I put together a piece on McKinney that included a conversation with Michael Chiesa, another Spokane product who also happened to be one of McKinney’s wrestling coaches when he was in high school. “Maverick” is one of those “tell it like it is” cats and so when he says that McKinney’s wrestling is actually the best part of his game just a couple weeks after he puts Frevola down with a clean double tap, I believe him… and I get excited.
I actually think this much time having passed since his debut is a good thing for McKinney, as the hype has died down just a little, which means there isn’t as much pressure on his shoulders heading into this one. He’s shown an abundance of upside, so I’m pumped to see what he brings to the table on Saturday and start working to figure out how far he could climb in the lightweight division.
Jinh Yu Frey vs. Hannah Goldy
Q: Is Jinh Yu Frey’s resurgence real?
The former Invicta FC atomweight champ dropped each of her first two appearances inside the Octagon, succumbing to a late armbar in her debut against Kay Hansen before getting outworked by Loma Lookboonmee in her sophomore outing. Since then, however, Frey has posted consecutive decision wins, relying more on her strength in grinding positions and clean striking to out-work Gloria de Paula and Ashley Yoder.
Now back to level in the UFC, it’s time to see if this resurgence is a building block to a solid little run or simply a function of being able to dig deeper than her last two opponents and pull out victories?
This is a perfect fight to make that kind of read, as Goldy is solid, but nothing spectacular — a durable, strength-over-skill competitor coming off a first-round submission win last time out. My read has been that Frey simply needed time to adjust to fighting up a division from where she enjoyed her prior success and now that she’s settled in, we’re starting to see better performances, but another opportunity to test that hypothesis is always welcomed.
Alejandro Perez vs. Jonathan Martinez
Q: Are you really still not sure bantamweight is the best division in the UFC?
The argument against bantamweight being the best division in the UFC is usually, “Duh, lightweight exists, Spencer!” and while I have all the time in the world for the lightweight division, fights like this are why I think the 135-pound weight class gets the nod.
Perez is 32, 8-3-1 in the UFC, and spent a little time in the Top 15. Martinez is 27, 5-3 in the UFC (but it should be 6-2 because he beat Andre Ewell), and is both ascending and still a few steps away from sniffing the Top 15. They are, for all intents and purposes, middle-class bantamweights and I don’t feel like there is the same depth like this in the lightweight ranks.
There are more elite fighters (though that is closer now than it has ever been) and more recognizable names, but the overall depth in the bantamweight division feels greater to me. There are more up-and-coming names with real top-end potential at bantamweight, and fewer guys that are just hanging around the Top 10, Top 15 based on their names like Tony Ferguson and Conor McGregor. Yeah, I said it.
Watch this fight. Enjoy this fight. Think about this fight in the context of “a win doesn’t move either guy into the Top 15” and then get back to me with your thoughts on whether the bantamweight division is the best or not. I’ll be here.
Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Michael Gillmore
Q: Should the UFC do more “10-day contract” type deals?
NBA teams can sign players to 10-day contracts, where 10 days after they sign, they either have to sign them to a second 10-day, sign them for the remainder of the season, or cut them loose.
These contracts are mostly reserved for players from the NBA G-League who are brought in to fill an end-of-the-roster spot when injuries or COVID ravage a team, and while there are cases every year of fighters exceeding expectations and sticking with a team — either the one that initially signed them or another that was impressed with their work — more often than naught, guys that play on 10-days see minimal court time and land back in the G-League.
The UFC should start employing something similar, and yes I’m saying that because Michael Gillmore is fighting this weekend.
Gillmore seems like a nice enough guy. He impressed Dana White by quitting his job and sticking around Las Vegas last year in hopes of being a mid-season call-up on Season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter (or that’s the story we were told during the show), and then got the chance when Miles Hunsinger hurt his knee and was unable to compete. Gillmore stepped in, was quickly beaten by Gilbert Urbina, and that should have been the end of things.
Instead, Gillmore managed to get a fight on the finale, where he lost to Andre Petroski. Only six of the 16 fighters that competed on the show fought at the finale — the four finalists, Petroski and Gillmore — and while a couple others have since made appearances, Gillmore somehow continues to stick around. This weekend, he drops to welterweight and faces Ramiz Brahimaj, who stepped in on short notice for DWCS grad Jonny Parsons.
Gillmore probably could have been let go after he had nothing to offer during the season. He should have been allowed to skate after getting beaten by Petroski. He just hasn’t shown anything that makes me feel like he’s capable of competing at this level, and while I’m all for giving people chances to grow and develop and get settled and all that stuff, we’re not talking about some 24-year-old kid that was fighting up a division and showed promise on the regional circuit — Gillmore is 34 and sports a 6-4 record, and prior to his UFC debut, he’d never fought anyone with more than five professional fights.
It has to be okay to say, “Thanks for helping us out, but it’s not going to work out; here’s a duffle bag full of gear and drop us a line some time” in situations like this. There need to be 10-day contracts in the UFC.
Victor Altamirano vs. Carlos Hernandez
Q: We all agree this is the best way to book Contender Series graduates, right?
Altamirano and Hernandez both earned contracts last fall on DWCS after scoring decision wins — the former by split, the latter in unanimous fashion — and are set to make their UFC debuts opposite one another.
I couldn’t love this more.
Through the first couple seasons of the annual talent search, it felt like there was a push to make sure grads got favourable matchups right out of the gate, and it made sense — you don’t want the boss hand-selecting a bunch of folks that walk in and get mollywhopped right out of the gate. But now that we’re a few years into this thing and the pickins on DWCS are getting slimmer each season, there has been a shift to getting the newcomers in there with more experienced, more dangerous foes in order to see where they stand right out of the gate.
And now we’ve got two facing off against each other, which is perfect.
Flyweight is in a good place right now, so why not have Altamirano and Hernandez duke it out this weekend to see which one starts moving forward right away and which one holds steady? Maybe we get a Fight of the Year contender from them where they both impress and advance, regardless of the actual result? Maybe one looks terrible and we’re spared an even worse fight against a less interesting opponent?
More of this please.
Josiane Nunes vs. Ramona Pascual
Q: Can undersized Josiane Nunes shine again?
Nunes is five-foot-two, and in her promotional debut, she took on previously unbeaten Bea Malecki, who is five-foot-nine, felling the towering Swede with an overhand left late in the opening round. It was an odd sight, but not a wholly unexpected result as Malecki had limited experience and Nunes was a legitimate person of interest on a six-fight winning streak.
She returns this weekend and will compete at featherweight, squaring off against short-notice replacement Ramona Pascual in another “this is going to look a little weird” pairing because I can’t think of a more diminutive featherweights than Nunes will be on Saturday. My guess is she comes in south of the 145-pound limit — I’m guessing like 138 or 139 — and she has a reach advantage, so this isn’t a situation where the deck is stacked against her or anything, it’s just a strange sequence of fights for someone with some genuine intrigue.
Making this fight at featherweight makes complete sense as a means of keeping Nunes on the card, and gives her another opportunity to really embrace being the “tiny ball of fury” that everyone can’t help but root for, especially if she scores another emphatic win this weekend.
I can’t wait to see this one.