UFC Vegas 49: Punch Drunk Predictions
Will Islam Makhachev continue to dominate or can Bobby Green collect a second February victory this weekend?
Picking fights on a weekly basis is difficult because there are so many variables at play, but that’s part of what makes it so much fun too. I wish I wasn’t as invested in doing well as I am, but I’m not really a “let’s just do it for fun; we don’t have to keep score” kind of guy, and, I’ll be honest: I’m a try-hard.
I want to do well, and I put in the work needed in order to give myself the best chance to do well. I set a high bar for myself with this series each year, and I push myself to try to reach that lofty goal, and it’s really hard. I’ve been pretty sharp so far this year and I’m still south of where I want to be, though not by much.
I fixate on the misses and my shortcomings, where I could improve and what more I could do, rather than celebrating my successes, positive attributes, and all that I have already done. It’s why I started putting out the My Week in Words newsletter, which features everything I’ve done each week collected into one place — putting it together makes me recognize the work I’ve done over the past seven days, and it’s usually a pretty substantial amount, if I do say so myself.
But d’you know what sucks? As much as I can tell myself not to care about how many people read it or subscribe to it — or to this newsletter for that matter — I still care, a lot, and I always will.
Because I want people to appreciate what I do.
I want people to feel like I bring value to the conversation.
And I want to feel like what I’m doing — what I try so hard at every single day — matters.
Enjoy the fights.
Here are my picks.
Reminder: I’m out of town this weekend and watching the fights on PVR when I get back, so no “About Last Night…” or “Next Day Takeaways” this week. We’ll be back to our regularly scheduled broadcasts on Monday.
Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
As much as I love Green and know he will give Makhachev his very best, I just can’t see this ending in any way other than the streaking grappler earning his tenth consecutive victory and earning a championship opportunity later this year.
In order to secure the upset, Green has to be the aggressor and keep Makhachev moving backwards the entire time. On a full camp, I could see it, but just a couple weeks after his last fight, taking it on short notice, with Makhachev in the midst of a really dynamic run of success? Nope. It’s not Green’s preferred way of fighting to begin with — he’s much more comfortable getting into a boxing match or working as a counter fighter — and I just can’t see Makhachev letting him dictate the terms of engagement here.
A big piece of what made his three-fight run last year so impressive is that in every round of every contest, Makhachev was the one moving forward, initiating. He’s so confident in his skills right now that he’s taking control from the jump and not giving guys a chance to have even a little success, because why let someone feel like they have any momentum whatsoever if you don’t need to?
Green is a tough out with good defensive wrestling and slick hands, so Makhachev is going to have to work for this one. A close fight early becomes more one-sided the longer it goes, with Makhachev earning a clean sweep of the scorecards.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev
Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman
Cirkunov should dominate this matchup — he’s significantly bigger (three inches in height; a former lightweight), has a big reach advantage (five inches), and should, in theory, be able to control Turman in the clinch and on the canvas — but something about it just feels like it’s going to be an ugly, closer-than-it-should-be kind of fight.
In terms of functional skill and previous results, everything suggests the Latvian-Canadian judoka should be able to get inside, dump Turman to the canvas, and find a finish inside the opening round. I’m hopefully that he will, but there is a part of me that feels like Turman could make a big leap here after another camp working with Glover Teixeira and his team, so we will see.
If I were posting these picks “Confidence Pool” style, this would be near the bottom.
Prediction: Misha Cirkunov
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira
I’m kind of surprised that Cachoeira survived missing weight by three pounds and trying to gauge Gillian Robertson’s eyes out in her last appearance, but here she is, ready to be a pain in Kim’s ass on Saturday night.
Kim is the more technical fighter of the two and should — key word, should — be able to work behind her movement and superior reach to pick at the Brazilian “Zombie Girl” for three rounds. Cachoeira throws smoke and will likely land some good shots of her own, probably enough to mark up Kim, but in the end, I just don’t see the Syndicate MMA representative taking a step back after a solid showing in defeat against Molly McCann last year.
It should go the distance, but Kim should earn a clear decision win.
Prediction: Ji Yeon Kim
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez
I have struggled to come to a concrete decision on how I think this fight will play out and who I see emerging victorious all week, because I can’t figure out how much, if at all, the weight misses aided Alvarez in his last two fights.
Accepting that I could end up being all the way wrong, I’m siding with Alvarez.
While I strongly dislike that he’s missed weight for his last two fights, the performance against Thiago Moises last time out was so confident, so one-sided that it’s impossible for me to believe all of that goes away if he isn’t carrying an extra couple of pounds. The Spaniard has real physical advantages fighting at lightweight and his opportunistic submission game allows him to fight aggressively and with pressure on the feet.
Now, Tsarukyan is an excellent wrestler and coming off a very good performance of his own, but if we’re going win-for-win over their last four, I like what Alvarez has done more than what Tsarukyan has accomplished, and I think he gets the better of things on Saturday.
Prediction: Joel Alvarez
Armen Petrosyan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Until I see him beat someone like Rodrigues, I can’t pick Petrosyan to beat someone like Rodrigues; it really is as simple as that.
This is his first fight at middleweight in a few years and his promotional debut, plus he was taken down literally 20 seconds into his fight on Dana White’s Contender Series. As the broadcast team said during that fight, he actually gets dumped to the canvas pretty routinely, and while he’s battled back many times, that was always against much lesser competition.
Rodrigues won’t give him any space and should be able to do a better job of controlling Petrosyan if and when he gets him on the canvas. While the newcomer will be a threat every time they’re in space because he is a quality striker, I full expect “Robocop” to deploy a wrestling-heavy approach and secure the victory this weekend.
Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues
Preliminary Card Predictions
Ignacio Bahamondes def. Zhu Rong
Josiane Nunes def. Ramona Pascual
Terrance McKinney def. Fares Ziam
Alejandro Perez def. Jonathan Martinez
Ramiz Brahimaj def. Michael Gillmore
Carlos Hernandez def. Victor Altamirano
2022 PDP Record: 41-19-0 (.683)
2021 PDP Record: 278-173-5, 5 NC (.603)