UFC Vegas 50: One Question for Every Fight
Addressing the key answers I'm looking forward to finding out in each matchup this weekend in Las Vegas
A big part of the reason I’m interested in every single fight on every single fight card is because the thing I crave most from these events every Saturday is information.
While some people are watching for sick knockouts and slick subs, Fight of the Year contenders or to get a look at a hyped prospect, the thing that drives me each weekend is gathering information. I’ll take all those other things too, but their secondary and tertiary to gleaning as much information as I can about as many of these athletes as possible, because that information is going to help shape and refine my thoughts and opinions on everything I talk about in this space more than anything else.
I’m never going to be the best technical analyst covering this sport because I don’t have the practical experience or depth of knowledge in various disciplines needed to break down each position, each movement the way folks like Dan Hardy, Luke Thomas, Dan Tom, and my guy Harry Powell do event-after-event.
What I do have, however, is a brain that has always been wired to story, recall, and process information I’ve deemed vital and an aptitude for turning that info into thoughts, opinions, perspectives that some don’t see, can’t see, or won’t bother trying to see.
But the only way for me to maintain that is by caring about every fight and the information it can provide, which is why every Wednesday, I share the one question about each fight that really gets me thinking.
And this week, there is a lot of information to be gathered from inside the Octagon.
Thiago Santos vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Q: What if Ankalaev is just an outstanding all-around talent?
I know that sounds like a weird question, but here’s what I mean: when it comes to contenders, we’re constantly waiting for that statement win, that highlight reel moment that makes everyone say, “Yep, that’s the guy” in unison, otherwise we keep asking if they need to do more.
Islam Makhachev has beaten 10 straight lightweights, finishing the last four during a 12-month span, and yet folks still want him to really prove he’s the top contender in the 155-pound weight class, and it feel like Ankalaev might be heading in a similar direction.
The 29-year-old from Dagestan enters on a seven-fight winning streak, and should, given the current slate on tap in the light heavyweight division, be next in line for a title shot with a victory over Santos on Saturday. But unless he does something that really jumps off the screen, I’m not sure many people are going to be pushing al that hard for that to happen, and it feels like a mistake to me because he just might be one of those outstanding all-around talents that isn’t always going to put up highlights, but will always put up wins.
He actually feels like a perfect avatar for figuring out what fight fans want these days in a title challenger and top-end talent: do they want the most complete, most skilled fighters available or would they prefer someone with a little more “kill or be killed” to their game?
Personally, I’ll take Ankalaev and his ilk 100 times out of 100, but I have a feeling I might be in the minority… as per usual.
Marlon Moraes vs. Song Yadong
Q: Are we underrating how good Song Yadong is and could be?
I think about stuff like this all the time because for all the emerging talents we fawn over early and make a big deal about, it always feels like there are one or two or more that we just don’t talk about enough, and Song leads that list for me.
In this week’s edition of Fighters on the Rise, I kicked off the piece by playing “Two Truths and a Lie” as Song, with the truths being that he’s ranked in the Top 15 and already 7-1-1 in the UFC, and the lie being that he’s 27, when in fact, he’s 24, which makes the two truths even more impressive to me.
The Chinese bantamweight isn’t someone that has piled up wins against overmatched opposition and lost to the best competition he’s faced — Song has been in there with solid competition from his second fight on, and even if you want to argue about the outcomes of his fights with Cody Stamann and Marlon Vera, he still went toe-to-toe with those two at an age when going toe-to-toe with those two says a great deal about his talent and upside, and yet “The Kung Fu Monkey” has garnered far less attention than a certain technicolor competitor in the same division.
This matchup with Moraes on Saturday is a big moment for Song, but I’m certain folks will downplay a dominant effort should it come in favour of asking “What happened to Moraes?” which is a valid question, but shouldn’t be the only takeaway if he does get beaten.
Song is one of the absolute best prospects on the roster and we really should talk about him far more than we currently do. Hopefully that changes after this weekend.
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Alex Caceres
Q: Did “Bruce Leeroy” just need a dozen years to put it all together?
Alex Caceres enters his 12th year on the UFC roster on the longest winning streak of his professional career.
A pro since 2008 and a member of the cast on Season 12 of The Ultimate Fighter, Caceres has gone from mercurial bantamweight known more for his nickname and signature afro to an intriguing veteran presence just outside the Top 15 ahead of his bout with Yusuff on Saturday. He’s won five straight, and while this weekend’s pairing represents a significant step up in competition, the resilience he displayed last time out should make him — at the absolute worst — a live dog on Saturday.
Caceres flashed upside throughout his career, but it was always accompanied by inconsistency. He’d look great, then look terrible. He’d go on a five-fight unbeaten streak, and then lose three straight and appear on track to get released.
His entire UFC run has been a series of ups and downs: a 1-3 start followed by five straight without a loss, chased by three losses, and then two wins, and then four losses in six fights, where the victories came against guys that couldn’t hang at this level and a couple of the losses were ugly. Now he’s gotten his hand raised in five straight, showing improved poise, a great understanding and ability to utilize his various weapons, and like he just might have finally figured out how to put everything together.
Yusuff is a tough test, so I’m super-interested to see how this one plays out this weekend.
Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Karl Roberson
Q: Which of these two will find some consistency?
This is a perfect pairing in the light heavyweight division as Rountree Jr. and Roberson are in the exact same place ahead of this weekend’s matchup.
Both are .500 in the UFC — Rountree Jr. is 5-5 with one No Contest; Roberson is 4-4 — and both have had moments where it looked like the might could be somebody to pay attention to long term. They have each, however, also had moments where you came away thinking, “Nope, that guy isn’t going to figure it out” as well, which is why this coin-flip fight on Saturday night is actually quite important.
Rountree Jr. is coming off a victory over Modestas Bukauskas where he hit that oblique kick everyone hates, while Roberson has basically spent the last two years dealing with weight issues and illnesses and fight cancellations while going 0-2 against Marvin Vettori and Brendan Allen, prompting this permanent move to light heavyweight.
Each guy needs a win in a big way. Each guy still has a chance to put the pieces together and go on a little run here. But neither guy can really afford to hit the reset button again after this one, so expect them each to come out firing this weekend.
Drew Dober vs. Terrance McKinney
Q: What is McKinney’s ceiling in the lightweight division?
This is one of those ones that is unanswerable until it is answerable, but it’s what I think about every time a talented kid like McKinney takes another step forward in their division.
Just a couple weeks after dispatching Fares Ziam, “T. Wrecks” is poised to fill in for Ricky Glenn opposite Dober this weekend, going from facing a fellow 20something with limited experience to squaring off with a dude that was in the Top 15 at the start of last year, sports a 23-11 overall, and is better than anyone he’s faced to date. I love the moxie, I love the self-belief, and I love getting another quick chance to see McKinney do his thing after we had to wait until two weeks ago to get his sophomore appearance in the Octagon.
I know I say it each time I write about the Spokane, Washington product, but it’s worth always repeating: everyone I’ve talked to about him since his debut tells me his upside is unlimited as long as he’s focused and locked in, and his grappling is far superior to his striking. We started to see a little of that in his win over Ziam and we should get to see more of his arsenal and a better sense of where he stacks up on Saturday.
If he wins this weekend, there will be a push to hustle him into the deep end of the division, just to see how far he can take things before encountering a challenge, and while I completely understand the desire to do so, it’s the last thing I want to see for McKinney, because the top end of the division is perpetually in a state of disarray, and he’s better off fighting every three or four months, building up experience and confidence, rather than wading into the fray with Top 10 fighters and spending prolonged periods on the sidelines.
I think he has the potential to be a contender in the not-too-distant future, but he should still take his time getting there.
Alex Pereira vs. Bruno Silva
Q: Why are folks still doing the whole “he’s scared to fight me” thing?
Pereira, who has history with Israel Adesanya from their kickboxing days, pulled the routine in a recent podcast appearance with Guilherme Cruz of MMA Fighting, essentially saying that if the reigning middleweight champion really wanted to face him, he would have moved heaven and earth to make it happen already, and because he hasn’t, it means he’s scared.
(exaggerated sigh)
Can we just stop with this stuff already?
Can we maybe just acknowledge that, as Adesanya said earlier this year, “it’s a bit premature” to talk about him fighting Pereira, regardless of their history, since he’s the undisputed middleweight champ and the Brazilian is 1-0 in the UFC with a major test in front of him this weekend.
Stuff like this getting traction (and limited pushback) is why Colby Covington became the obnoxious asshole he is now, because so few people actually want to pay attention to wins and losses and skills and some form of a meritocracy, opting instead to get all worked up about the drama and trash talk and narrative elements above all else, only to turn around and be pissed off when Colby Covington is an obnoxious asshole.
We need to stop paying attention to this kind of crap — or at least give it fewer column inches — and start caring more about these athletes actually proving themselves in the Octagon.
Matthew Semelsberger vs. AJ Fletcher
Q: Y’all ready to see someone get knocked out?
Because I’m saying it, this is invariably going to be one of those situations where these two proven finishers engage in an epic 15-minute staring contest, but what can I say, I’m playing the odds.
Semelsberger bracketed his loss to Khaos Williams last year with a 16-second and a 15-second win, while Fletcher has earned a finish in eight of nine pro fights, including his contract-winning turn on Dana White’s Contender Series. Both are explosive athletes still in the “putting it all together, figuring themselves out as fighters” stage of things, which feels like a window for increasing the chances of an explosive finish.
I think Semelsberger has a chance to develop into a solid welterweight, and I see Fletcher eventually figuring out that ‘55 might be the best place for him because he’s built like a fire hydrant and giving up eight inches in reach here.
And I think Saturday’s prelims are going to end with someone going to sleep… I’m just not sure who yet.
JJ Aldrich vs. Gillian Robertson
Q: Who will dictate the terms of engagement?
I know that sounds like a very basic question, but it’s vitally important to determining how this fight will play out, because Aldrich and Robertson have very different approaches and whomever controls where this fight takes place should be victorious.
Yes, who dictates the terms of engagement determines the outcome of a great number of fights, but in instances like this — or last week’s fight between Serghei Spivac and Greg Hardy — it becomes increasingly important because the differences depending on where the action takes place are so great.
Aldrich works well on her feet, utilizing a good job, decent footwork, and a steady pace, and she should be able to bust up Robertson as long as she is able to keep her at distance. Conversely, Robertson can be a terror on the ground, particularly from top position, although she’s also active off her back. If she can drag Aldrich to the canvas, the Canadian should be able to control the action, grind out control time, and hunt for submissions.
I love classic stylistic pairings like this and am excited to see how that question is answered this weekend.
Trevin Jones vs. Javid Basharat
Q: What is reasonable to expect from Basharat in his debut?
Basharat is one of those DWCS grads (Class of ‘21) that I’m staying away from until I see him step into the Octagon and compete against actually skilled competitors because his road to the biggest stage in the sport is lined with victories over marginal competition.
His previous opponents have a combined record of 45-59, but feature outliers in each direction, as his last two opponents were a combined 27-1 at the time they fought, and another, John Spencer, was 2-39 and now carries a warning that stops just short of saying, “This dude throws fights” on his Tapology page. His Natan Levy Number* is -13 including Spencer and -5 without him, both of which are bad, and his two most recent opponents with the shiny records? They weren't exactly facing world-beaters either.
I say all of that because as of right now, Basharat is a -150 favourite against Jones, who is 1-1 with one No Contest in three UFC starts.
You can only beat the people that are put in front of you, and Basharat has done that every time out thus far, but I’m just hesitant to get behind a newcomer that hasn’t really faced much in the way of meaningful competition before stepping into the Octagon for the first time, especially when they’re facing a hitter like Jones.
* Natan Levy Number: an MMA formula where you tabulate the combined records of an emerging fighter’s opponents following their meeting in order to get a greater understanding of the level of competition said newcomer faced on their way to the big stage. The higher the number, the better the competition, in theory.
Damon Jackson vs. Kamuela Kirk
Q: What can Kirk do for an encore?
Kirk’s debut came on short notice last summer, when he rolled into the Octagon and earned a unanimous decision win over Makwan Amirkhani. Now, the 27-year-old Arizona native is finally set to make his second trip into the UFC cage on Saturday against a grimy, dangerous veteran in Jackson.
“The Jawaiian” is someone I’ve been aware of for a number of years because I used to write previews of Victory FC shows that aired on Fight Pass, and he’s fought pretty solid competition to this point, but I always struggle to figure out how to rate someone coming off an upset win like the one he had last June against a fighter that is clearly in decline and has established flaws… which is why I like this matchup with Jackson.
The Fortis MMA product has been a steady Triple A talent for the bulk of his career, enjoying a couple of Major League cups of coffee along the way. He seems to have settled into a utility role in the UFC now and is the kind of experienced, gritty, skilled veteran that should serve as a litmus test for fighters like Kirk for the next couple years. He’s good enough to beat you if you’re not careful, but not so good that he’s going to consistently up-end genuine emerging talents, if that makes sense.
Kirk feels like someone that could develop into a consistent presence in the 20s in the featherweight division, but this weekend’s matchup should help refine that opinion and determine if revising that projection, up or down, is necessary.
Sabina Mazo vs. Miranda Maverick
Q: What have consecutive losses done to Maverick’s confidence?
My hope is that the answer is nothing, but my concern is the reason I ask.
Maverick entered last year coming off a solid debut showing against Liana Jojua and got out to a good start with a victory over Robertson, but then a janky split decision loss to Maycee Barber was followed by a one-sided defeat at the hands of Erin Blanchfield, and now she returns in a tough, but winnable matchup against Mazo and I don't have a very good sense of where she stands.
Some of that is because I may have jumped the gun with Mariya Agapova and made a mistake in how I perceived the young talent in the flyweight division breaking down, putting everyone in a group together, rather than really thinking about it in tiers, with Casey O’Neill on one level, Erin Blanchfield on another, and then Barber and Maverick, and then Agapova… my bad.
I think Maverick could find her way onto that Blanchfield tier and eventually into that O’Neill strata, but she’s got some rebuilding to do, which is why I’m curious to see how things play out this weekend. This is a fight I would have picked her to dominate if it followed the Robertson fight, but right now, I’m not so sure.
Dalcha Lungiambula vs. Cody Brundage
Q: Middleweight really is a mess, huh?
This one is for my guy Sean Sheehan, who all but refuses to speak about the UFC middleweight division because it is so bereft of talent.
I’m not trying to be disrespectful to either of these men — they just happen to be the two middleweights competing this weekend that highlight how shallow the talent pool is in the 185-pound weight class at the moment.
Lungiambula is 2-2 in the UFC and 1-1 since moving to middleweight, while Brundage hung tough in his short-notice debut against Nick Maximov last fall, but do either of these cats profile as “gonna be factors in the division with a couple more wins” to you? Maybe Brundage builds into a decent mid-pack grinder as he keeps gaining experience, but he’s six-feet even with a 72” reach, which feels undersized for the division, and it’s to like he was trouncing quality opposition before reaching the UFC.
I know this isn’t really what I should be talking about ahead of these two squaring off, but if I were a slightly undersized light heavyweight or someone that struggled to get down to welterweight with a couple decent wins in the UFC, I would think long and hard about getting myself to ‘85 and seeing if I could string together some wins because it sure seems like there is room for growth in division at the moment.
Guido Cannetti vs. Kris Moutinho
Q: Can Moutinho show he actually belongs in the UFC?
Moutinho got called up on short notice last summer and earned plaudits for not falling over while getting beaten up by Sean O’Malley at UFC 264. It was weird when it was happening, it’s weird now, and I honestly think we need to do a better job of not celebrating fighters getting battered as some kind of badge of honor since, you know, brain cells and CTE and whatnot.
This weekend, the neon-haired Massachusetts native make his full-camp return against Cannetti in a fight that is going to immediately tell us whether Moutinho belongs at this level or not. The 42-year-old Argentine Canetti is 8-6 overall, 2-5 in the UFC, and riding a three-fight skid. He is, quite frankly, someone you have to beat if you want to stick around in the UFC and someone you need to beat handily if you have hopes of advancing beyond the lower tier in the division.
I get being happy for the kid that he got a shot and took the best O’Malley had to offer last summer, but he got absolutely mollywhopped in that fight — O’Malley landed 230 significant strikes in under 15 minutes — and it’s got to be okay to say that too. We don’t have to find a positive spin to someone getting their ass handed to them, and Moutinho got his ass handed to him.
Now he needs to show that’s not going to be an every time out thing.
Tafon Nchukwi vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Q: Remember when I was ultra-high on Nchukwi?
You’ve got to own your mistakes, and I own the fact that I was way too excited about Nchukwi’s prospects coming off his Contender Series win and debut victory over Jamie Pickett.
While I still think the 27-year-old has upside and I like the move back up to light heavyweight, my belief that he would rapidly improve and make major strides was clearly premature, and I have a feeling we’re going to see the shortfalls of his skills set put on blast this weekend as he welcomes Murzakanov to the Octagon for the first time.
“The Professional” is exactly that — an unbeaten veteran with a complete set of tools, an understanding of how to use them, and a guy that doesn’t mess around once he’s in there.
A victory for Nchukwi would be huge and provide me with a little sense of validation for being high on him heading into last year, but I’m not sure that’s how things are going to play out, either this weekend or long term.
This is one I just got wrong… I think.