UFC Vegas 50: Punch Drunk Predictions
Will Thiago Santos secure a second straight victory or will Magomed Ankalaev run his winning streak to eight?
Well we’re back to the old salt mines again, friends, and after a couple rugged weekends barely squeaking by with a positive record, it’s time to get back to posting healthy win totals again.
The last couple weeks have featured a couple close results that didn’t go my way, a couple errant selections, and a couple more fights where I couldn’t decided and ended up backing the wrong horse. In a year with 40-some-odd events, you’re going to have stretches like this, and the hope is to keep them to a minimum.
Hopefully, that’s what happens here.
As much as I like this card in terms of the quality of the matchups and a chance to get another look at a handful of fighters that intrigue me, I do think there are some pretty clear selections to be made here. That’s probably going to end up being my undoing, but there seems to be a consensus as to who will win most of these matchups, and it tends to line up with my thinking as well.
We’ve got 14 fights on deck this weekend, and double-digit wins isn’t out of the question… at least I hope that’s the case.
Here we go.
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Thiago Santos vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Santos can win this fight, especially in the opening two rounds, when he’s fresh and has the potential to catch Ankalaev with something sharp. His last few fights might not have gone as expected, but summarily dismissing the power “Marreta” possesses and the fact that he only needs to land one to sleep anyone in this division would be a mistake.
That said, Ankalaev just has so many more avenues to victory in this fight, and over five rounds, the guy with the more diverse arsenal and the unflappable demeanour is going to win out.
Ankalaev’s best trait is his adaptability based on what his opponents are giving him or sending his way. If he needs to be the aggressor, he can be. If he needs to hang back and counter, he’s good there too. If he needs to wrestle because he’s getting touched up a little, that’s fine as well. He has, as Sean Denny put it so well on the Severe MMA Preview Show yesterday, “Plan A, Plan B, and Plan C when most guys don’t have Plan B.”
While I do think he’s going to have to be careful initially, especially if Santos is aggressive and looks healthy, Ankalaev should be able to turn this into whatever type of fight he wants and get the victory.
Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev
Marlon Moraes vs. Song Yadong
This feels similar to the main event in that the veteran is going to be a live wire, particularly early, and dismissing his chances is dumb, but at the end of the day, the younger, ascending fighter should end up getting his hand raised.
Moraes’ slide has come against quality opposition, and he had moments in his last fight with Merab Dvalishvili where he had “The Machine” in a bad spot, but to me, the fact that he couldn’t seal the deal and that his lone victory over his last five was a good, but not great decision nod over Jose Aldo tells me this is a real regression for the powerful Brazilian, and not a run of bad luck.
And Song isn’t the kind of guy you want to face when you’re on the downside of your career.
“The Kung Fu Monkey” has legit power, strong conditioning, and enough wrestling that if he feels like things are getting snaky on the feet, he can close the distance and grind. Moraes is going to come out throwing power because that’s just who he is and what he does, but I fully expect Song to avoid those wide hooks and switch kicks before finding the veteran’s chin and securing the biggest victory of his promising career.
Prediction: Song Yadong
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Alex Caceres
Caceres’ run of success has been fun to watch, but now he’s stepping in with a legitimate Top 15 featherweight and his winning streak is going to come to a halt.
It will take Yusuff a round to get used to Caceres’ length and funky movements, but in a straight kickboxing match, “Super Sodiq” busts up Caceres with quick, powerful boxing and a steady dose of calf kicks to those spindly legs. If Caceres looks to initiate grappling exchanges, Yusuff is solid enough to hold his own, defend wisely, and get back to his feet.
I have a feeling this is going to be a fight that reminds a lot of people how good Yusuff is and that folks expected him to dominate Arnold Allen last time out. He’s 28 years old, 11-2 overall, and has a technical, powerful, quick striking game; he’s going to be a fixture in the Top 15 for the next several years, and should work his way into the Top 10 mix in the next 18 months.
Prediction: Sodiq Yusuff
Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Karl Roberson
I still believe in Khalil Rountree Jr. and I’m picking him to win this fight.
Roberson likely has move paths to victory because he can wrestle a little if needed, but I don’t necessarily think he’s going to look to go there; I think he’s going to want to stand, going to want to get back to his kickboxing roots, and against someone with Rountree’s power, that can be dangerous.
Everything hinges on Rountree fighting with confidence. When he comes out and throws, when he’s coming forward and looking to force engagement, he’s dangerous; where he gets into trouble is when he’s stuck in his head, thinking about shots rather than pulling the trigger. As much as folks don’t like how his last fight ended, he came out throwing against Modestas Bukauskas, especially his kicks, and I think he’ll have the opportunity to do the same here.
I also think the pressure is on Roberson here after two years of missing weight, withdrawing from fights, and consecutive losses. He needs a victory here in a big way, and I think that leads to him reaching and pushing a little too much before getting caught with something sharp that ends the fight.
Prediction: Khalil Rountree Jr.
Drew Dober vs. Terrance McKinney
I know how good Drew Dober is and the calibre of fighter it takes to beat him — at least in recent years — and I’m making this pick because I think McKinney just might be that kind of talent.
McKinney has said his grappling is better than his striking, and I think that will get put to the test here. If he’s as good as everyone says — and I don’t just mean him and his coach, but also Michael Chiesa, whose opinion I trust a great deal — he can put Dober on the deck and win this fight either by grinding out a decision or finding a finish.
If he can’t get it to the ground, I still think McKinney can hold his own in the striking department because we’ve seen the power and suddenness he possesses. Dober is smooth on the feet and has good pop and diversity of offence as well, so if it stays standing, we could get a banger, but my sense is that McKinney will take it to the ground and secure a massive victory that moves him closer to the Top 15 in the lightweight division.
Prediction: Terrance McKinney
Alex Pereira vs. Bruno Silva
Pereira should win this fight because he’s the significantly more skilled, more diverse striker of the two, and Silva isn’t someone that traditionally looks to use any kind of offensive wrestling or grappling. This feels like a chance for Pereira to bust up a dude on a nice winning streak in the UFC in an effort to thrust the former Glory standout further up the ranks and closer to that fight with Israel Adesanya he’s been talking about since signing with the promotion.
That said, if ever there was a time for Silva to wrestle…
I don’t think it happens, but I will still be watching intently because I’ve getting serious “You should have just kept your mouth closed” vibes from this one given all the nonsense Pereira has been talking about Adesanya being scared to fight him.
Prediction: Alex Pereira
Preliminary Card Picks
Matthew Semelsberger def. AJ Fletcher
JJ Aldrich def. Gillian Robertson
Javid Basharat def. Trevin Giles
Damon Jackson def. Kamuela Kirk
Miranda Maverick def. Sabina Mazo
Cody Brundage def. Dalcha Lungiambula
Kris Moutinho def. Guido Cannetti
Azamat Murzakanov def. Tafon Nchukwi
2022 PDP Record: 54-30-0 (.643)