UFC Vegas 51: Punch Drunk Predictions

Will Vicente Luque or Belal Muhammad continue their march towards the title contention in the welterweight ranks?

Each Saturday that there are UFC fights, I’m excited, but I’m extra pumped for tomorrow’s event.

You see, most weekends, the fights kick off somewhere around 3pm or 4pm PST and it’s just another night of action inside the Octagon — quality fights, something simple for dinner because I’m eating in my office and typing the whole time, so I don't want to be getting grease or hot sauce or whatever all over the keys, and the night wraps up somewhere between 9pm and 10pm, by which point I’m knackered, because I’m old and washed and for some god awful reason, I’m a morning person, which means I’ve been awake since 5:30am.

But tomorrow is going to be different.

This weekend’s festivities will get underway no later than 2:30pm, with the main card starting three hours later, which means we’re done somewhere between 8pm and 9pm. On top of that, we’re off for a family Easter lunch today, which means dinner on Saturday will be delicious leftovers in one form or another. Doesn’t matter whether it’s a full plate do-over of today’s impending meal or a tasty sandwich with some veggies and a couple chips on the side — leftovers from a holiday meal are a Top 10 meal, regardless of the holiday, and I cannot wait to tuck into both the food and the fights this weekend.

All the best to everyone spending time with their families this weekend and the same to those who are not.

Let’s make some picks.

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Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad

I want to start by saying that I would not be at all surprised if Muhammad wins this fight. He’s taken his game up a notch over his last couple fights, operates with tremendous pressure, pace, and relentlessness, and could certainly grind and grapple his way to a victory over Luque on Saturday to move one step close to challenging for championship gold.

No one should be surprised if “Bully” gets the job done.

That said, I think Luque is going to win.

For Muhammad to get this done, he’s going to need to avoid getting caught for 25 minutes, and though he’s certainly capable, I just don’t think that’s how this shakes out, because just as he’s improved over his last handful of fights, so too has Luque.

The Brazilian is threatening at all times, in all phases, and while I’m not sure if he can operate at his traditional break-neck pace for the full five rounds without wearing down, I don’t know that he’s going to need to because he’s so good at creating or finding opportunities to finish. He’s one of those guys that can turn a bad situation into a sudden victory in a blink of an eye, and every time I play this fight out in my head, I land on Luque finding a finish somewhere before the final horn sounds.

While I don’t think it’s anywhere near as quick as the first fight between these two, I believe the end result will be the same, with Luque collecting his fifth straight victory inside the distance.

Prediction: Vicente Luque

Caio Borralho vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

This is such a miserable fight to pick because we haven’t seen either guy in there against UFC competition yet and there are a bunch of unknowns to contend with since they’ve largely been facing overmatched opposition.

In situations like this, I tend to side with the individual that has the best overall win, and that’s Borralho, who was able to grind out a decision win over CFFC middleweight champ Aaron Jeffrey last summer in his first of two DWCS appearances en route to securing a contract. It was a tepid affair fought primarily in the clinch though, and I don’t know if that is where he’s going to want to be with Omargadzhiev, who profiles as your standard unbeaten Russian with solid grappling chops and a winging overhand right.

Since I wasn’t particularly impressed with Borralho’s win over Jeffrey — even though I know it’s a good win — and feel like he got a lay-up in his second appearance, I’m going to roll the dice with Omargadzhiev and see what happens.

Prediction: Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Miguel Baeza vs. Andre Fialho

Speaking of fights that are miserable to pick…

Baeza enters on a two-fight skid after failing to take his corner’s advice heading into the third round against Khaos Williams and paying for it with his consciousness, while Fialho started well, but couldn’t keep it going in his short-notice debut against Michel Pereira. Both are better than their recent efforts indicate and I do believe we could get a wild fight that ends in a quick finish from this one on Saturday, but who gets their hand raised?

I’m going to side with Baeza simply because I think he has more paths to victory and will actually deploy his grappling here. We rarely see it, but the South Florida native is a legitimate Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt and taking this fight to the deck could be the path of least resistance for him. Now, he likes to strike and has good power, so he could very well opt to bang it out with Fialho, which makes it a real coin-flip situation because the Sanford MMA product has been known to put people to sleep with his hands as well, so I think it all comes down to how Baeza wants to play it.

After losing two straight, I think he comes out looking to wrestle and works for a submission, avoiding the fire-fight everyone is hoping to see this weekend.

Prediction: Miguel Baeza

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Wu Yanan

My guy Sean Sheehan called Wu Yanan “a very, very good striker” on Thursday’s Severe MMA Preview Show and I just about pissed myself, mostly because he’d given Ian O’Neill shit for saying Vicente Luque was one of his favourite fighters to watch of all time out of the chute, and then here he was singing the praises of a fighter that has gone 1-3 in the UFC and whose only win came by submission, and not with her allegedly terrific striking.

Despite Sean’s high praise, I think this is Bueno Silva’s fight to lose and I’ll be interested to see how she opts to approach it, because I do think there is an easier road to victory for her on the ground. We saw Joselyne Edwards have some grappling success against Wu last January and Bueno Silva should be even sharper there, but I also think she can probably get the job done on the feet as well.

I hope I’m right because I can’t be stuck listening to Seanie gloat next Thursday.

Prediction: Mayra Bueno Silva

Pat Sabatini vs. TJ Laramie

Sabatini cruises.

I’m not trying to be a dick, but I just don’t think Laramie is ready to be fighting at this level and he showed that in his debut when he walked out, initiated the clinch with Darrick Minner, and then left his neck out there for a guy with a penchant for snatching up first-round submission wins.

Couple that with the fact that Sabatini has already shown he’s a level above the Canadian and I think we end up with the former CFFC champ securing a fourth consecutive UFC victory and a second finish inside the Octagon.

Prediction: Pat Sabatini

Mounir Lazzez vs. Ange Loosa

When this was Lazzez against Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos, I was all-in on the Brazilian getting the better of the striking exchanges and maybe mixing in some cheeky wrestling on the way to a decisive win. But with “Capoeira” out and Loosa in, I think this shifts to a solid victory for Lazzez.

The Tunisian striker will have a slight height and reach advantage and Loosa is coming in on extremely short notice, plus he went three rounds with UFC vet John Howard at the start of the month. We saw Loosa get out-worked on the feet last summer by Jack Della Maddalena in a bout that secured the Australian passage to the Octagon, and I think Lazzez can deliver a comparable effort this weekend.

I don’t think the 34-year-old “Sniper” is as good as people made him out to be after his debut win on Fight Island, but I don’t think he’s as poor as he looked against Warlley Alves either; he’s a mid-pack welterweight, and with a full camp and a short-notice opponent, that should be more than enough to get the job done this weekend.

Prediction: Mounir Lazzez

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Preliminary Card Predictions

Devin Clark def. William Knight
Pannie Kianzad def. Lina Lansberg
Drakkar Klose def. Brandon Jenkins
Jesse Ronson def. Rafa Garcia
Martin Buday def. Chris Barnett
Jordan Leavitt def. Trey Ogden
Sam Hughes def. Istela Nunes
Alatengheili def. Kevin Croom

2022 PDP Record: 89-45-0 (.664)