UFC Vegas 52: Punch Drunk Predictions

Which Brazilian strawweight will emerge victorious in Saturday night's crucial main event clash?

I’m not going to get on my soapbox or so on some lengthy sales pitch to convince you this is an exciting fight card and a quality collection of main card fights because if you feel otherwise, nothing I say is going to sway your opinion, and I’m done fighting with people about the depth of these events, the importance of cards like this, and the general level of quality on these cards compared to the “good old days” so many of the critics pine for all the time.

The main event is terrific, regardless of how few main card appearances Amanda Lemos has made, and each of the other four matchups is going to shed further light on one or both of the participants, plus they should all be entertaining tussles.

For a random Saturday in the middle of April, that sounds pretty good to me.

Here are my picks.

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Amanda Lemos vs. Jessica Andrade

Make no mistake about it: Lemos can win this fight, and she will most likely land a couple real good shots, because Andrade is a marauder that will come forward and give her foe the opportunity to connect with powerful strikes.

But this is a five-round affair and even though it’s been years since she went the full 25 minutes, she’s prepped for it a few different times in the past and has a more established, proven gas tank than Lemos, even over 15 minutes. In a bout where both women are going to have opportunities to land quality shots, I believe Andrade’s body work, pressure, and experience will pay huge dividends later in the contest, once Lemos starts to tire and fade.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the former champ deals with someone that carries similar power to her on the feet and is willing to meet her on her terms, but I do believe it will ultimately favor Andrade and she will get her hand raised, either with a stoppage in the late stages or a decision.

Prediction: Jessica Andrade

Clay Guida vs. Claudio Puelles

The reason I’m so curious to see how this one plays out is because I won’t be at all surprised if I get it wrong. In fact, I might be happy to get this one wrong because that would mean that Puelles has taken a big step forward in his development and is one step closer to being the true emerging talent I believe he could be in the lightweight division.

But I can’t pick you to beat Clay Guida until I see you beat someone like Clay Guida.

There is nothing fancy or hard to figure out about what Guida does, but he does it exceptionally well, especially in matchups like this. He’s going to push forward, get inside, and wrestle, and he’s going to do that one minute one to minute 15, and it will be on Puelles to stuff takedowns, land strikes that keep Guida at bay, and counter on the canvas should the opportunity present itself.

I do think “El Niño” can grow to be a quality middle-class lightweight, if not more, but this might be too much of a step forward right now.

Prediction: Clay Guida

Maycee Barber vs. Montana De La Rosa

I don’t have any evidence to support this, but I can shake the feeling that Barber is just carrying a ton of weight and pressure on her shoulders, entering this one with a lot of folks feeling like she’s lost three straight and the deadline to best Jon Jones’ record for being the youngest champion in UFC history having passed.

I also think De La Rosa has shown more meaningful development since reaching the UFC, and combining the two, it feels like there is a real road to victory here for the former Ultimate Fighter contestant.

Much like the first two fights, a Barber win wouldn’t surprise me — she’s gritty, she’s got a little pop, and she has a solid base to build upon going forward; I simply think De La Rosa is the better fighter right now. She’s worked on her hands, adding a little sharpness to her striking and ground-and-pound, plus she has good grappling and uses her length well once the fight hits the deck.

I think we see De La Rosa look to clinch and grapple, rather than hang out on the feet and trade, and while I’m not sure she’ll find a finish, I do think she’ll be able to do enough work from top position and in terms of control to secure the win.

Prediction: Montana De La Rosa

Alexander Romanov vs. Chase Sherman

This is going to be all Romanov, and it likely won’t take all that long.

Sherman’s only road to victory is to bang out leg kicks hot and heavy right out of the gate in an attempt to pop the Moldovan’s front tire, but each of those kicks is an opportunity for Romanov to either catch or just enter on a body lock, and if he gets Sherman down, it’s done. The unbeaten heavyweight prospect is gnarly from top position with both his submission attacks and ground-and-pound, so unless Sherman can catch him with something unexpected early or does manage to beat up that lead leg without getting put on his ass, Romanov should get him to the canvas and get a finish inside of five minutes.

Prediction: Alexander Romanov

Lando Vannata vs. Charles Jourdain

As much as this could be a blur of spinning shit and flying shit and all-around awesomeness, I actually think we’re going to see a mature performance from Vannata where he uses his grappling to neutralize Jourdain’s best weapons and work down the clearly path to victory.

We saw in Vannata’s debut at ‘45 that he has tremendous defensive wrestling and scrambling ability, but he’s good offensively in those positions as well, and even though he could opt to take his chances trading with the French-Canadian on the feet, I believe the 30-year-old Albuquerque fixture is at a point where he’s willing to eschew chasing highlights and bonuses in favour of collecting critical victories.

I know we all want a barnburner to open the main card, but I think we’ll see a smart, savvy effort with plenty of takedowns and “one step ahead” grappling from “The Groovy King" on Saturday.

Prediction: Lando Vannata

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Preliminary Card Picks

Marc-Andre Barriault def. Jordan Wright
Sergey Khandozhko def. Dwight Grant
Tyson Pedro def. Ike Villanueva
Cameron Else def. Aoriqileng
Preston Parsons def. Evan Elder
Marcin Prachnio def. Philipe Lins
Dean Barry def. Mike Jackson

2022 PDP Record: 99-49-0 (.669)