UFC Vegas 53: One Question for Every Fight
Questions about Marlon Vera, Grant Dawson, and many others highlight this look ahead to Saturday's fight card at the UFC APEX
With a return to pay-per-view on the horizon next weekend, it makes sense that we’re back to a “Spencer Card” on Saturday, with a quality “Hangover Card” on tap for May 14.
For those just tuning in, a “Spencer Card” is one where the masses are going to have little overall interest, but folks like me that want to pay attention to everything and spend time thinking about how things might look two years down the road get excited because there are a handful of intriguing debuts, a couple real important tests for competitors I have a genuine interest in, and a few scraps that are just bound to be a good time.
Most people will be interested in the main event clash between Rob Font and Marlon Vera and very little else, offering a nod of respect to Andrei Arlovski and maybe Darren Elkins, but dismissing much of what else is slated to hit the Octagon on Saturday.
But I think this is a truly interesting slate that is going to tell us a great deal about the men and women set to hit the cage in Las Vegas this weekend.
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Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera
Q: Is Vera ready to be a bantamweight contender?
So I’ve never been in on the Vera hype; it never quite made sense to me.
I think he’s a solid fighter and he seems like an engaging dude, but it’s always felt to me like the outpouring of support and projections of how far he could climb in the bantamweight division have out-reached the actual performances and results he’s delivered inside the Octagon. To put it another way: I feel like he’s more popular than he is proven, and I think has clouded the way some people look at him, talk about him, and rate him as a competitor.
But this is why I love this sport so much, because on Saturday night, we’re going to find out if Vera is in fact a real player in the 135-pound weight class because it takes a real talent to beat Font.
I likened the New England Cartel member to Raphael Assuncao when Sean Sheehan and I were speaking about this matchup for his Sherdog Preview (I’ll tweet the link when it comes out) and I think it’s a pretty apt comparison because for a long time, Assuncao was the guy just outside of the title picture that was a menace for anyone to face, and beating him showed you were ready to face the best the division had to offer.
Font feels like he’s now occupying that role, so I’m curious to see if Vera can pass this test and validate the lofty projections or if he’ll stumble and settle in to being a very good, but not quite elite bantamweight going forward.
Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake Collier
Q: Will Arlovski continue his run as the gatekeeper to the Top 15?
Arlovski’s re-invention as a composed, strategic fighter who relies on mixing things up and sound defensive fundamentals has been wild to watch, but the most intriguing thing about this latest chapter in his storied career is that he really is a bellwether for the heavyweight division.
If you beat Arlovski, you’re a legitimate Top 15 heavyweight.
Go look at his resume: everyone that has beaten him dating back to the start of 2016 was either already a ranked fighter or has subsequently proven themselves to be capable of holding down a place in the Top 15. He’s 8-10 with one No Contest during that span and every single one of the competitors that defeated him were either already ranked or broke into the rankings soon after and have remained there since.
Which is why this fight is so interesting to me.
Collier looked sharp in securing a submission win over Chase Sherman in January and has really settled in to life as a heavyweight. I said it before that fight and I’ll say it again: I’m intrigued by the former prospect’s presence in the division and, given Arlovski’s position in the division, can’t wait to see how this one plays out.
The veteran has won four of his last five, with only surging Brit Tom Aspinall being the only one to beat him. Can Collier collect a victory and punch his ticket to the Top 15 or will Arlovski rebuff another not-quite-qualified hopeful?
Andre Fili vs. Joanderson Brito
Q: Who did Brito piss off to deserve this?
Brito made his promotional debut in January, dropping a unanimous decision to veteran Bill Algeo. It was a pretty uneventful contest where the East Coast staple used his savvy and experience to get the better of the recent DWCS grad, and provided an immediate understanding of where the Brazilian newcomer fit in the bantamweight division.
He wasn’t capable of beating Bill Algeo.
I don’t say that as a slight either — I like Algeo, picked him to win that fight, and believe he’s one of those ecosystem fighters I talk about all the time that are vital to the growth and evolution of their divisions. He’s not a contender, but he’s not a chump either, and so Brito coming up short against him gave me a good initial sense of where he stood.
Which is why I’m perplexed as to why or how he’s landed opposite Fili this weekend?
There’s a great line in High Fidelity — the book or the movie version; it’s not repeated in the cancelled-too-soon series adaptation — where Rob talks about trying to touch Penny Hardwick’s breasts, getting rejected, and then trying to slide his hand between her legs: “It was like asking for a dollar, getting turned down, and asking to borrow 50 grand instead.”
That’s what this fight feels like to me — Algeo being the dollar and Fili the 50 grand in this analogy.
It feels like either an unwarranted step forward or a punitive assignment, and I’m not sure which right now.
Jared Gordon vs. Grant Dawson
Q: Is Dawson capable of taking another big step forward?
Since officially relocating to lightweight, Dawson feels like he’s plateaued a little.
In his last two outings, the former featherweight prospect has scored a last-second finish of Leo Santos in a fight that was close, but he was winning on the cards, and battled to a draw with Ricky Glenn in a bout where he raced out to an early lead and then faded hard down the stretch, yielding 10-8s across the board in the final stanza to arrive at the unanimous draw verdict.
Struggling against veterans isn’t something to panic about and Dawson is still only 28 years old, so there is unquestionably time for him to push through this rough patch and take his skills to a new level, and this weekend’s contest should help clarify if he’s ready to make that move now, still needs more time, or maybe is unlikely to make it.
Gordon is a tough out coming off a good win over Joe Solecki, another guy in a comparable position as Dawson. He’s good everywhere, trains with a tremendous crew, and is the type of aggressive fighter that should push the James Krause protege hard right out of the gate, testing his cardio and forcing him to show he’s got what it takes to beat seasoned competitors in the 155-pound weight class.
I don’t know if Dawson is capable of doing that quite yet — or if he’ll ever be capable of doing it on a consistent basis — which is why I can’t wait to watch this fight on the weekend.
Darren Elkins vs. Tristan Connelly
Q: Was last fight an anomaly or a harbinger of things to come for Elkins?
Generally speaking, Elkins hasn’t been a guy that gets put away quickly in his career.
He’s more of a “take an hellacious amount of punishment and keep coming forward, often rallying to win fights he was losing” type, but last time out against Cub Swanson, Elkins got clipped, staggered, and put away in a little over two minutes. As he readied to return this weekend, I can’t help but wonder if that was a one-off or a sign that the fighting style and pure toughness that inspired his nickname is starting to catch up to him?
Now, it very well could be that Swanson — a decorated striker and skilled veteran — hit him with some terrific shots and deserves full marks for getting Elkins out of there in a hurry. If that turns out to be the case, no one should be surprised. But what if after 36 fights and more than a decade competing in the UFC, getting by on grit and heart and an unbreakable will, Elkins is starting to break?
Father Time is undefeated and even the indefatigable set have to slow down at some point.
This weekend’s clash might not provide a final answer, but it should provide a little more clarity about where Elkins stands at the very least.
Krzysztof Jotko vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Q: Who needs this victory more?
I’ve been thinking about this question ever since I talked to Jotko last week and he was all kinds of fired up about getting in there and banging it out with Meerschaert.
On one hand, the Polish fighter has been in the Top 15 before and wants to return to the rankings. He’s coming off a tepid showing against Misha Cirkunov and a loss to Sean Strickland before that, but everyone loses to Strickland these days, so that’s maybe not that big of a deal.
On the other hand, Meerschaert is on the best run of his UFC career, having registered three straight submission victories since getting lit up by Khamzat Chimaev, exhibiting some elevated durability and stick-to-it-iveness, especially in his win over Makhmud Muradov. He’s never cracked the rankings, and I don’t think anyone really ever expected him to, but a win here could potentially do it for him; at the very least, it brings him that much closer.
This is a really intriguing battle between two veteran middleweights looking to make a real push in the wide open weight class. It should be a fun clash of styles and I genuinely can see a path to victory for each man. Of all the fights on the card, this is the one I’m having the hardest time figuring out.
Daniel Lacerda vs. Francisco Figueiredo
Q: Can Figueiredo prove he’s more than just the champ’s younger brother?
As I younger brother, I know first hand how important it is to establish your own identity beyond that of your older, more successful sibling. In that regard, I feel for Figueiredo, the younger brother of two-time, reigning flyweight titleholder Deiveson Figueiredo. Being “The Other Figueiredo” has got to suck a little, since he’s a world champion and you’re struggling to stay afloat in the UFC.
But just as I had to prove I was more than just “Little Kyte” or “Pete’s Brother,” the 31-year-old Figueiredo needs to prove he’s capable of hanging at this level and not just someone that got here because his brother is a champion and asked for a favour, which is what it looks like right now.
Figueiredo is 1-1 in the Octagon, having won his debut by unanimous decision over Jerome Rivera, a guy that went 0-4 in the UFC and was finished by everyone else he faced. He lost last time out to Malcom Gordon in a fight where the Canadian veteran started quickly and held out down the stretch, and now he’s in there with Lacerda, who showed early gumption against Jeff Molina before getting stopped.
This is a critical fight for Figueiredo — a chance to show he’s more Billy Ripken than Brent Gretzky — and I’m eager to see how it plays out.
Alexander Romanov vs. Chase Sherman
Q: Did you see Romanov’s new look?
Last week, before this fight with Sherman was postponed, a side-by-side shot of early Romanov and current Romanov courtesy of @PlutoMMA crossed my timeline, and I have to tell you, I had to do a double-take to make sure it was the same dude.
My immediate reaction (because I’m a bit of an asshole) was to crack wise about how more people will pay attention to him now that he looks the part of an intriguing heavyweight prospect and not Eastern European Roy Nelson, but sadly, I do think that is true.
Romanov is an unbeaten heavyweight with an assortment of takedowns, nasty ground-and-pound, and a bunch of funky submissions. He’s essentially a younger, more well-rounded, less battered Aleksei Oleinik and it remains super-curious to me that more people aren’t talking about this guy as someone to pay close attention to in the big boy ranks. Now that he looks more the part, I expect that to change, because if I’m being completely honest — mauling Sherman this weekend as he’s expected and likely to do doesn’t change anything.
He was an intriguing prospect before this; the only thing that has changed is his look.
Gabriel Green vs. Yohan Lainesse
Q: What kind of prospect is Lainesse?
I’m really stoked to see Lainesse step into the Octagon for the first time this weekend because (1) I think Green is a terrific measuring stick and (2) I want to get a better read on where the French-Canadian new arrival stacks up as far as prospects go.
Lainesse got a few things working in his favour in terms of leading me to believe he’s got some real upside:
he’s unbeaten (8-0)
he fought good comp in a quality promotion (CFFC welterweight champ)
he dominated a very good fighter to earn his UFC contract last season on DWCS (Justin Burlinson)
Green held his own in his short-notice debut against Daniel Rodriguez and scored a win that has aged nicely over Phil Rowe in his second appearance, which makes him an ideal candidate to face Lainesse here and help provide a little more information on where “The White Lion” fits at the moment and how far he might be able to take things.
Natan Levy vs. Mike Breeden
Q: Will the logic behind the Natan Levy Number be further validated?
Before Levy’s debut last November against Rafa Garcia, I talked about how he looked the part of a legitimate prospect on the surface, but there were question marks if you dug a little deeper:
We talk a lot about the level of competition athletes face on the way up, and on paper, Levy looks like he faced a good slate; his opponents had a combined 17-7 record at the time they fought. But another piece you also have to look at is how things have gone since those fights because then you see the six guys Levy has beaten are a combined 1-11 since sharing the cage with the UFC newcomer, which forces you to re-think the whole “he faced solid competition” piece to it.
He lost that fight to Garcia and the Natan Levy Number (originally Calculation) was born. Here’s the current explanation, in case you’re still not clear on things:
An MMA formula where you tabulate the combined records of an emerging fighter’s opponents following their meeting in order to get a greater understanding of the level of competition said newcomer faced on their way to the big stage. The higher the number, the better the competition, in theory.
Basically, if you beat a bunch of fighters that went on to post a host of victories, chances are they are solid fighters, which then means there is a greater likelihood that you are a solid fighter as well. Levy’s NLN was (-10) heading into his fight with Garcia… and this isn’t golf.
This weekend is a chance for it to be further validated as Levy returns to action opposite Mike Breeden, a solid regional hand who lost on the Contender Series (to a good fighter, Anthony Romero) and then got punched up in his short-notice debut against Alexander Hernandez. Two bouts is still a small sample size, but if Levy were to lose this one, it does give added credence to the whole “it’s not just about the records of the people you beat” argument that the Natan Levy Number posits.
He shined against guys that have done nothing since, and then lost to the best fighter he’s faced. Let’s see if he can get back on track this weekend or if Breeden will collect his first UFC victory instead.
Gina Mazany vs. Shanna Young
Q: Who will get to stick around a little bit longer?
I think we should speak honestly and truthfully about fights at all times, and this fight will most likely determine which of these two veterans gets the opportunity to compete in the Octagon again later this year and which one will be seeking fights elsewhere.
Mazany is 2-5 in the UFC across two weight classes. She got out-muscled and out-worked at bantamweight, but struggles hard to get down to ‘25, which leaves her with a limited gas tank, making her the consummate tweener.
Young is 0-2 and also lost to Sarah Alpar on the Contender Series. She’s 7-1 in all other competitions, but has looked, to me, like someone has been able to get by on raw strength and athleticism in the past, and generally speaking, that just doesn’t cut it at this level.
I’m never going to advocate for athletes being cut, nor do I ever relish it happening, but I’m also not going to sit here and try to cook up some way that this fight impacts the bigger picture in the flyweight division. It’s a battle between two struggling competitors looking to show they’ve got something more to offer, and I’m curious to see who comes out on top.
Tatsuro Taira vs. Carlos Candelario
Q: What does the future hold for the Shooto standout?
Taira is an undefeated 22-year-old flyweight. He won the Shooto flyweight title last summer and has finished eight of his 10 fights, including seven of them in the first round. Before turning pro, he went 9-0 as an amateur, giving him a real Jack Shore-like profile as heads into his UFC debut opposite Candelario on Saturday.
Flyweight is rich with talent, but also not really deep enough that you can’t climb into the rankings with a couple quality wins, and I’m really interested to see what kind of success Taira can have as he transitions to the biggest stage in the sport.
This is the right kind of assignment for his debut — Candelario was 8-0 before dropping a debated split decision last year on DWCS and becoming the first losing fighter to earn a contract — and given his age, he lands as a long-term prospect to track for me. That being said, if the Japanese newcomer goes out and finishes Candelario quickly, he could get shuffled over to the fast lane in the flyweight ranks.
Interesting times ahead and I’ll be watching.