UFC Vegas 53: Punch Drunk Predictions
Font or Vera? Arlovski or Collier? Who will get their hand raised and who will leave Las Vegas with a loss?
First losing week of the year last week, and it’s all because I got too cute.
It’s a problem of mine from time-to-time, both with these picks and especially with fantasy sports — you have a couple good weeks (or a pretty strong four months) and instead of just making the smart pick and playing the person you know has a greater likelihood of delivering solid results, you take a big swing (or a bunch of big swings all at once), none of those “Well I could see it happening” scenarios play out, and you catch a great big L.
Now, going 5-6 isn’t a great big L, but it’s my first L of the year and only the fifth time I’ve been below .600 in a week since the start of the 2022 campaign, and you best believe I have no intention of that loss turning into a losing streak.
It’s not that I’m being conservative with my picks or playing it safe this week, or any week, for that matter; I’m just not over-thinking things and looking for ways for that 70/30 fight to fall in favour of the underdog.
I’m trusting my analysis and my reads, and refusing to get too cute.
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Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera
There are some fighters where no matter who they’re facing as they’re rising up the ranks, it’s hard to pick against them because they’ve been so dominant or displayed such unique, compelling talents; think Khamzat Chimaev, who was a massive betting favourite against Gilbert Burns despite never facing another of that caliber before.
Then there are guys like Vera, who has been making steady progress up the ranks for a couple years now, turning in strong efforts against opponents he’s been favoured to beat, but has yet to face anyone of Font’s pedigree. And with fighters like that, I need to see something more before I can call for them to beat a tenured divisional standout.
It’s also because Rob Font is really freakin’ good.
After getting beaten by Jose Aldo last time out, I fully expect Font to be moving around, pumping the jab, picking his spots and frustrating Vera. While I think the Ecuadorian can have some success — especially with his kicking game — I think Font is the better fighter with a few more tools in his toolbox.
I expect an entertaining fight where Font earns a clear decision.
Prediction: Rob Font
Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake Collier
If I were still getting too cute, I’d pick Collier here, because I think the former prospect is actually a better fighter than folks want to give him credit for and that he can beat Arlovski.
But the evidence suggests this is a fight Arlovski wins in the same manner he’s won his last two and four of his last five — by being slightly more successful on the feet and not getting drawn into longer exchanges — and much like with Vera, I need to see Collier beat someone like Arlovski before I can confidently pick him to beat someone like Arlovski.
I’m worried we’re going to get a bit of a slog from the big boys in the penultimate pairing of the night, with Arlovski edging things out on the scorecards.
Prediction: Andrei Arlovski
Andre Fili vs. Joanderson Brito
I really don’t understanding this assignment for Brito, who seemed like someone the UFC was keen on coming out of DWCS last season, but this isn’t the fight you give someone you’re keen on when they’re coming off a loss to Bill Algeo.
Unless Fili gets all kinds of sloppy and concedes a bunch of takedowns and top control time, I believe the Team Alpha Male staple should be able to pick apart Brito from the outset, using his length to keep the Brazilian at bay, while mixing things up with his levels and his attacks. Fili is a terrific fighter that doesn’t get recognized as such for some reason, but I think it will shine through here.
Prediction: Andre Fili
Jared Gordon vs. Grant Dawson
Dawson has a slight reach advantage and is a reasonable favourite here, but given that he’s been in tough with veterans each of his last two outings, I’m siding with the veteran Gordon here.
This feels very similar to Gordon’s bout with Joe Solecki to me — a pairing with a promising grappler that hasn’t beaten anyone at this position in the division just yet — and while that fight was close, Gordon did enough to get the victory and force the emerging Contender Series grad to take a step back and reset. Now more than a full year removed from missing weight for his final featherweight assignment and settled into life at lightweight, I expect Gordon to be even stronger, in even better shape, and even more locked in on Saturday night.
This is a great matchup and chance for each of these guys to make a real statement, and I think Gordon is the one that will come out on top.
Prediction: Jared Gordon
Darren Elkins vs. Tristan Connelly
While I’m not convinced that his first-round loss to Cub Swanson wasn’t a harbinger of things to come for Elkins, I also don’t think this is the kind of matchup where those concerns are going to be validated, as this should be a straightforward grappling match from start to finish.
Elkins should be able to hold his own in the striking exchanges and isn’t at major danger of getting lit up by the veteran Canadian, plus he should be able to take this fight to the deck whenever he sees fit. While the takedown numbers from his last fight suggest strong defensive capabilities, Connelly spent nearly 10 minutes on bottom against Pat Sabbatini, and although Elkins isn’t as young and active as the striking sophomore from Philly, he’s still very good in close and on the canvas.
This is a fight that Elkins should win by pressure and pace, and might be one of those rare instances where he doesn’t walk away from the Octagon covered in blood.
Prediction: Darren Elkins
Krzysztof Jotko vs. Gerald Meerschaert
I’ve thought of this as a cat-and-mouse fight from the very beginning, and I think it all comes down to how poised and measured Jotko can be on Saturday night.
Meerschaert is an opportunistic grappler and finisher, meaning he’s not out there shooting blast doubles and working through an assortment of trips and throws; he takes great advantage of mistakes and miscues, and then looks to attack the neck quickly when opportunities present themselves. Simple as this sounds, as long as Jotko doesn’t put himself in any bad positions, I think he can win this at range with his striking because even though he’s kick-heavy, Meerschaert historically hasn’t been someone that catches kicks and runs the pipe either.
This is all about distance management for Jotko — land, get far enough away that Meerschaert can’t get ahold of you, and do it again. And again. And again. Don’t look for takedowns. Don’t look to work in the clinch. Maintain space, throw some volume, and don’t give the Wisconsin native a chance to grapple, regardless of how confident you are in your submission defence.
Range, fire, reset, over and over again.
Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko
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Preliminary Card Picks
Daniel Lacerda def. Francisco Figueiredo
Alexander Romanov def. Chase Sherman
Yohan Lainasse def. Gabe Green
Mike Breeden def. Natan Levy
Gina Mazany def. Shanna Young
Tatsuro Taira def. Carlos Candelario
2022 PDP Record: 104-55-0 (.654)