UFC Vegas 54: One Question for Every Fight
What intrigues me about each of Saturday's matchups? I'm glad you asked.
Professional wrestling outfits like WWE and AEW have what are commonly known as “go-home shows” — the last big live event before a pay-per-view, where all the final touches are put on the storylines and angles that are going to play out on the upcoming Sunday evening, with the intention being to get people pumped for the PPV and maybe sway those that were previously on the fence.
This weekend’s fight card feels like the antithesis of that.
As the final event in a seven-week run of shows with an open Saturday next week and a Fight Night broadcast the week after, this card feels like one a lot of people will take off, will watch on Sunday morning when they can fast-forward through the commercials and fights they’re not particularly interested in because the stakes for most of the matchups aren’t that great and the names are largely unfamiliar.
I get it. I don’t begrudge anyone for taking that approach, either.
And from the UFC perspective, shows like this are mandatory when you have massive pay-per-view fight cards and quality events like last weekend’s 11-fight gem on ESPN. With all due respect to Kendall Roy, it can’t be “all bangers, all the time” because that’s just impossible — it’s also a bad musical approach, in my opinion, but that’s a thought for a different blog on a different day.
What I will say, however, is this: there are a couple genuinely interesting matchups set to take place and intriguing competitors set to step into the Octagon this weekend, and I’m looking forward to seeing how those play out and what those competitors have to offer.
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Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira
Q: Can Holm remain a perennial contender?
Holm is the ultra-Katlyn Chookagian to me — a fixture at the top of her division, but with actual championship credentials. Last week, we saw Chookagian maintain her position as the silver medalist at flyweight, and this weekend, Holm looks to keep her place as one of the top contenders in the bantamweight division in this clash with Vieira.
What I want to see and want to know is how long Holm can keep this up.
To be clear: I’m not doubting her and her results, especially in non-title matchups, give you absolutely no reason to doubt her right now. What I will say, however, is that she turned 40 last October, is coming off a knee injury, and despite not taking a ton of damage in her career, she’s still been competing at the elite level in two different combat sports for close to 20 years, and we all know that Father Time eventually catches up with everyone.
Saturday’s matchup with Vieira should be a good opportunity to answer this question as the Brazilian has a complete skill set, is coming off a huge win over Miesha Tate, and is 10 years younger than Holm, who acknowledged to me Wednesday morning that her adversary is the most dangerous stylistic matchup out there for her at the moment.
Every fight is going to feel like it might be the one where Holm finally takes a step back, and every fight could be the one where she says, “Not today.” As such, I’m going to keep paying close attention and making further reads on where the former champions stands in the bantamweight ranks and her overall career.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Michel Pereira
Q: Is this where Pereira becomes a genuine welterweight contender?
Pereira has spent his last three fights beating opponents that I would currently describe as “upper-middle-class welterweights,” Andre Fialho, Niko Price, and Khaos Williams. Each has gotten close to cracking the Top 15, but have failed to do so thus far, but they have also shown they’re a cut above that next tier of talents in the 170-pound weight class, which means Pereira is situated at the top end of that hierarchy.
Saturday’s bout with Ponzinibbio is a chance to finally face off with a tenured member of the Top 15 — someone that held down a Top 10 ranking for a number of years and built an eight-fight winning streak before injuries and illnesses forced him to the sidelines for more than two years. While he’s only won one of his first three appearances since returning, no one questions Ponzinibbio’s talents or his ability to derail the Brazilian’s climb up the divisional ladder this weekend.
Pereira has reined in the crazy over the course of his current four-fight winning streak, doling it out far more judiciously while showing greater technical acumen and overall awareness inside the Octagon. He’s huge for the division, only 28 years old, and profiles as the kind of fighter that could be a real threat at welterweight, which is why this fight feels so critical.
A win over Ponzinibbio punches his ticket to the Top 15, and every win Fialho racks up makes “Demolidor” look even better, as he got the better of the surging, active Portuguese UFC rookie in January.
I know folks miss Pereira being a lunatic and doing wild shit inside the cage, but this version is more dangerous and sports a higher upside, and Saturday night should be another chance to figure out where his ceiling rests.
Chidi Njokuani vs. Dusko Todorovic
Q: Why slow-play Njokuani at this point?
I was honestly surprised when this matchup came across my timeline, and the more I think about it, the more I don’t understand the logic behind making this fight.
Njokuani is 33 years old. He has a 21-7 record with one No Contest verdict and has faced solid, established competition throughout most of his career. After needing just 16 seconds to dispatch Marc-Andre Barriault in January, why run him out there against a middling 27-year-old whose two UFC victories came against opponents with a combined 1-9 record inside the Octagon?
If their ages were reversed, I would get it — there is certainly more time to bring a 27-year-old along at a medium pace, allowing them to garner more experience before diving into the real depths of the middleweight division — but given his age and level of experience, why not get Njokuani in there with someone a little further up the ranks than Todorovic and see if he can become an intriguing new addition to a perpetually stale division?
Personally, I would have slotted Njokuani in opposite Brendan Allen in a couple weeks, or got him out there in place of one of the eight middleweights slated to compete on June 18 in Austin, Texas.
There is no need to slow-play things with the veteran kickboxer at this point; a win over Todorovic doesn’t do anything for him given the way his debut went and how Barriault has subsequently responded. If he wins this weekend, get him in there with someone on the fringes of the Top 15 and see if he can’t shake things up, rather than bringing him along slowly.
Eryk Anders vs. Jungyon Park
Q: Remember when Anders looked like a contender?
I don’t ask that question to be a dick or anything — it’s just always going to be wild to me that Anders ended up being a mid-pack middleweight and occasional light heavyweight.
The former Alabama linebacker entered the UFC with an 8-0 record, coming off an LFA title win over Allen. He knocked out Brazilian stalwart “Sapo” Natal in his debut and then out-hustled fellow former LFA titleholder Markus Perez in his sophomore appearance. Less than seven months after stepping into the Octagon for the first time, he was headlining an event in Brazilian opposite former light heavyweight champion and middleweight title challenger Lyoto Machida, losing a questionable split decision.
Even with the setback, Anders still looked like someone that could be a fixture in the Top 10 going forward — a big, athletic newcomer with power in his hands and room to grow, but it just never happened.
Anders is 4-5 with one No Contest since that fight with Machida, which includes a Hail Mary win over Tim Williams and a questionable split decision nod over Gerald Meerschaert. He honestly has regressed since arriving in the UFC, and it makes very little sense to me, especially as someone that thought very highly of him upon arrival.
Saturday’s contest with Park is a dangerous one — “The Iron Turtle” can crack — and I’m curious to see what “Ya Boi!” brings to the table this time around.
Polyana Viana vs. Tabatha Ricci
Q: Which of these Brazilians will move forward another step?
While I’m not looking forward to the three or four obligatory “Viana beat up a robber” references we’re going to get on Saturday night, I am curious to see which of these Brazilians can maintain their winning ways and take another step forward in the strawweight division.
After an uneven start to her UFC career, Viana has brought her record back to even inside the Octagon with consecutive first-round submission wins over Emily Whitmire and Mallory Martin. As for Ricci, she debuted up a weight class against French standout Manon Fiorot, caught a beating, but returned to the win column upon returning to the 115-pound ranks last fall.
Thus far, both have looked good against middling competition and over-matched against slightly better talents, though Ricci carries more of an incomplete grade because the Fiorot matchup was just too one-sided and she had no shot of winning. Strawweight is deep and talented, so if either of these women want to make actual headway, they each need to show more than they have thus far, and Saturday would be as good a time as any to do so.
Jailton Almeida vs. Parker Porter
Q: Was this really the best way to book Almeida’s sophomore appearance?
Yes, I know I gushed about how intrigued I was by this fight literally yesterday, and that hasn’t changed… but that doesn’t mean I don’t question the decision-making here.
Almeida made a statement in his debut, and I just wonder if both he and the UFC wouldn’t have been better served pushing this contest back 4-6 weeks in hopes of finding an opponent that can do more for him within the division than keeping him on the card and hustling him up to heavyweight against a guy on a three-fight winning streak that could genuinely hand him a loss.
Now, I don’t think Porter is going to beat Almeida — he’s too strong, too athletic — but I would have preferred to see him stationed against another light heavyweight — any light heavyweight, really — so that there is greater context to the performance. Maybe they offered it around and no one raised their hand, which is understandable, but if that’s the case, shelve him until a light heavyweight is available or some middleweight wants to move up a division and test their luck.
As I said, I’m still curious to see how this plays out on Saturday because Porter is a full-bodied heavyweight and the dynamics of the matchup intrigue me, but on the whole, I’m not sure this was the best way to book Almeida’s second appearance.
Joseph Holmes vs. Alen Amedovski
Q: Can either man make a statement while collecting their first UFC victory?
This is one of those fights where each guy has to know there is a lot riding on the outcome, which should imbue them with a greater sense of urgency and a little more aggressiveness come Saturday night.
Holmes had looked solid on the regional scene prior to his promotional debut, earning a solid win on Season 5 of Dana White’s Contender Series and stopping DWCS alum Jhonoven Pati in front of the UFC brass at Fury FC 53 five weeks later. But he had little to offer Jamie Pickett in his short-notice debut, and absolutely has to come out looking more like the guy from prior to that contest than the guy we saw on the first card of the year back in January.
Saturday’s fight ends a 32-month absence for Amedovski, who enters on a two-fight slide and was knocked out in 14 seconds by John Phillips the last time he was in the Octagon. That was Phillips’ one and only UFC triumph, and while you never really want to do the whole “Well if he couldn’t beat that guy…” routine, this is one of those situations where looking at results and the pedigree of previous opponents is a serious factor to consider.
Neither of these guys can really stand to suffer another loss — they’re living in the lower tier of the middleweight division, and when you struggle to earn victories in a thin division, it doesn’t bode well for your continued employment.
This one is actually giving me “Sarah Moras vs. Vanessa Melo” vibes, and if you don’t know that reference, I’m jealous that you have a more robust and fulfilling life than I do.
Omar Morales vs. Uros Medic
Q: Why did Morales go down to featherweight in the first place?
I never understood why Morales relocated to featherweight, and now, after a three-fight sabbatical to the 145-pound weight class, he’s back at lightweight, where he belongs.
The 36-year-old Venezuelan moved to 8-0 with his contract-winning effort on Dana White’s Contender Series, and then added victories over Dong Hyun Ma and Gabriel Benitez to push his unbeaten streak to 10, with all of those fights coming at lightweight. Then for some unexplained reason, Morales opted to move down to ‘45, where he lost to Giga Chikadze, beat Shane Young, and got submitted by Jonathan Pearce.
Now, I’m not a big fan of weight cutting at all, but accept that it is part of the sport, and as such, I would have understood if Morales was struggling to find success and was tremendously undersized competing at lightweight, but that wasn’t the case. He’s a solid 5’11” tall and doesn’t sport a whole lot of excess tonnage, so all a move down was going to do was make life miserable for him, before and during his fights, and we saw that. Sure, he went the distance with Chikadze, but he wasn’t the same guy we saw get the better of Ma and “Moggly” earlier in his UFC run.
This is reminiscent of Sean Strickland moving down to welterweight despite never having lost at middleweight, which remains true, by the way. I’m happy Morales is back at lightweight and can’t wait to see he and Medic literally kick the hell out of each other on Saturday.
Vince Morales vs. Jonathan Martinez
Q: Which of these two dark horses takes another step forward?
This week’s reminder that bantamweight is the deepest, most competitive division in the UFC (and the entire sport, frankly) comes in the form of this clash between surging dark horses.
Both Morales and Martinez have earned consecutive victories — the former against Drako Rodriguez and Louis Smolka, the latter against Zviad Lazishvili and Alejandro Perez — and the winner should earn a reasonable step up in competition next time out, especially considering that Smolka went from getting knocked out by Morales to facing Davey Grant last weekend, which, results be damned, is an actual step forward off a loss. Anyway…
This one is intriguing to me because Morales appears to have turned a page since relocating to Las Vegas and Martinez has long been someone on the cusp of taking a step forward, only to stumble against Grant, which tells you where he fits within the division. I’m not saying the winner of this is going to be threatening for a place in the Top 15 next time out, but the upper middle class in the 135-pound weight class is flush with talent and tough fights, and that’s where the victor will continue to reside.
From there, it’s only another win or two before you’re facing someone with a number next to their name, so while it may not be the most immediately impactful bout on the card, it is one that has some real “near future” ramifications attached to it.
Felipe Colares vs. Chase Hooper
Q: Where does Hooper stand heading into his junior year in the UFC?
Officially, Hooper is 2-2 inside the Octagon, having alternated wins and losses, as he readies to face Colares this weekend. But in bigger picture terms, I’m interested to find out what kind of development the Washington state native will show this weekend and what his future may hold in the UFC as he readies to start his third year on the roster.
My guy Scott Fontana of the New York Post did a quality Q&A with “The Dream” where they discussed a pair of competitors that arrived in the UFC at a young age, dealt with some adversity, but eventually developed into champions, Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira, and while the allusions to those two competitors might feel far-fetched, Holloway went 3-3 in his first six UFC appearances, losing to the best competition he faced, and Oliveira was 10-8 with one No Contest prior to starting his current 11-fight winning streak.
Hooper certainly has a long way to go in order to actually stand alongside those two gentlemen, but he’s still just 22, he’s starting to grow into his tall, wiry frame a little more, and he has the kind of slick grappling game that could serve him well if he can build up his secondary weapons.
There was another name Hooper mentioned in the piece as an inspiration — Demian Maia — and that to me should be who so many of these slick submission experts pattern themselves after going forward. Maia worked diligently to make his boxing good enough that you had to respect his hands, and used wrestling to find ways to get his hands on opponents and get them into grappling situations, which is the piece that is often missing for pure grapplers these days.
I’ve been watching Hooper’s UFC adventure since his Contender Series appearance and look forward to continuing to keep tabs on him going forward.
Sam Hughes vs. Elise Reed
Q: Who will maintain their momentum and score a second straight victory?
Two fighters coming off their first UFC victories clash in the opener and I’m curious to see which one of them will maintain their momentum this weekend.
Hughes had to rally to beat Istela Nunes last month, but she did, and I love that she’s making the quick turnaround looking to build on that effort right away. That was her first fight as a member of the Fortis MMA team and she seemed to figure things out on the fly midway through that fight, so jumping back in with designs on expanding on those gains makes perfect sense to me.
Reed secured a victory in mid-March over Cory McKenna, picking apart “Poppins” on the feet before getting out-grappled in the third. She was overmatched in her promotional debut up a division, and looked far more settled and confident back down at strawweight last time, and that should be the case here as well.
I know this sounds basic, but I really do think this one comes down to “who wants it more” in that urgency, aggression, and drive will end up being the deciding factors of this one, more than say striking or grappling. This feels like a fight that will be competitive and hard-fought no matter who emerges victorious, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it got the night started on a high.