UFC Vegas 55: Punch Drunk Predictions

Can Holly Holm turn back another hopeful or will Ketlen Vieira topple the former champion and perennial title challenger?

Sorry about not delivering 10 Things yesterday, but I needed a day off, at least from here.

Rather than get into the thick of this weekend’s card and what I genuinely enjoy about it, I put together my feature story on Holly Holm for OSDB Sports, started working to line things up for my June assignments, and got all domestic by doing the laundry, dishes, dinner prep, and a trip to the bank. I also looked for new housing listings (zilch) and spoke to my realtor about potentially being the back-up offer for some sellers whose home we’d like to purchase, but who are waiting on their preferred offer to get their financing straight.

Despite doing all that — and that’s a solid day right there, if I do say so myself — it still felt like a break. I had podcasts or music playing in the background the entire time I bounced around the house or jumped in the car, and in giving myself permission to not worry about writing 10 Things, I managed to not walk around feeling panicked about getting everything I wanted to do done.

I love what I do — adore it, actually — and am increasingly proud of the fact that I made this lane for myself through hard work, persistence, and by consistently putting out quality work for more than a decade now, but I’m also coming to accept and appreciate that even I need to have days where MMA is my secondary or tertiary thought, and not always the primary deciding force in my day.

The good thing about pressing pause for a day is that I woke up excited this morning — excited to dive into these predictions, to cut the lawn and hammer out the profile I need to write today for next week, and to have Friday Date Night with my wife, a delicious dinner, and a nice bottle of Pinot Gris.

And despite dipping out yesterday, I am excited about Saturday’s slate.

Here’s how I think things will shake out.

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Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira

Until she loses a fight like this, I’m always taking Holm in a fight like this.

The former bantamweight champion has lost exactly one non-title fight in her UFC career, and that came against Valentina Shevchenko, who then went on to fight for the bantamweight title, and is the current ruler of the flyweight division. Outside of that, she’s won them all, including each of her last two appearances and her four victories since ascending to the top of the 135-pound weight class all those years ago.

Vieira is dangerous and talented — the most likely of Holm’s most recent opponents to hand her another non-title loss — but until I see someone outside of the championship set figure out how to neutralize Holm’s movement, her counter-striking, her side kick, I have to stick with “The Preacher’s Daughter” to get the job done.

Maybe this is the fight where it happens, or where Father Time starts to catch up with the 40-year-old standout, but right now, I have nothing that leads me to believe that is going to be the case and a bunch of evidence that supports my “Holly Holm wins these kinds of fights” position, so I’m sticking with it for at least one more fight.

Prediction: Holly Holm

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Michel Pereira

I genuinely feel bad for Ponzinibbio, who was felled by injuries and illnesses at the worst possible time. Not that there is a good time to get hurt or sick, but the Argentinian welterweight was in the midst of a seven-fight winning streak closed out by victories over Gunnar Nelson, Mike Perry, and Neil Magny and on the cusp of title contention when a staph infection turned into a much worse ailment that led to multiple surgeries and more than two years on the sidelines.

He’s gone 1-2 since returning and at age 35, it feels like his window for being a top contender has already closed, and I think we get confirmation of that here.

Pereira is just too big, too young, too quick, too powerful, too frenetic for Ponzinibbio to contend with at this point. He’s looked more measured and tactical in his last three victories, and can always break out the craziness if needed, but I don’t think it’s going to be needed here. Pereira can take a measured approach like he did against Andre Fialho and have the same type of success.

Ponzinibbio deserved better than to have his best years wasted on the sidelines, but this sport is cruel and unforgiving, and it’s time for Pereira to take his place in the Top 15.

Prediction: Michel Pereira

Dusko Todorovic vs. Chidi Njokuani

This one is easy to me: Chidi Bang Bang.

Todorovic has a little pop in his hands and could eventually become a decent mid-pack middleweight, but he’s still green and Njokuani is a clean, technical striker that is going to make him pay for having poor defensive mechanics and leaving his chin exposed.

While I don’t think it will be as quick as Njokuani’s debut win over Marc-Andre Barriault, I don’t think the judges are going to be needed either.

Prediction: Chidi Njokuani

Eryk Anders vs. Junyong Park

Anders is tough to put away, but he’s also become someone that prefers fighting in the clinch and tires rapidly, and those two things push me in the direction of Park.

While I don’t think he’s going to rise much higher than where he’s at currently, at least I know the 31-year-old South Korean is going to come out and be aggressive with his offence, whether it’s throwing hands like he did with Gregory Rodrigues last time out or through his wrestling, as he should opposite Tafon Nchukwi. Lately, all I’ve seen from Anders is a desire to push opponents into the fence and keep them there, and him being spent after seven, eight minutes of action.

Now, maybe his move to Fight Ready MMA unlocks some things, brings back the guy that looked like a contender right out of the chute, but this is kind of the inverse of the Holm situation — until you show me that you can do more than grind and get tired, I can’t pick you, especially not when you’re facing someone I know is going to push the pace and make you work.

Prediction: Junyong Park

Polyana Viana vs. Tabatha Ricci

I don’t like making this pick at all, because I don’t necessarily trust Viana and think losing the edge on the canvas makes it much more difficult for her to win this fight, but she has a considerable height and reach advantage on Ricci, who is honestly best suited for atomweight and isn’t going to be able to dominate on the canvas either.

Viana isn’t a great striker by any stretch, but we’ve at least seen her stick around on the feet in close fights with JJ Aldrich and Hannah Cifers, and be willing to trade and take chances standing because she’s so comfortable on the ground. Each of her last two wins have come by submission in the first round, and in both instances, she was working off her back. Against Emily Whitmire, she isolated an arm after the two spilled to the mat, and in her fight with Mallory Martin, she pulled guard before patiently working to secure the arm as well.

Ricci showed solid control on the ground in her win over Maria Oliveira last time out, but this feels like a challenging step up in competition for the 27-year-old “Baby Shark” and one of those instances where a little more experience and a more well-rounded skill set will win out.

Prediction: Polyana Viana

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Preliminary Card Picks

Jailton Almeida def. Parker Porter
Joseph Holmes def. Alen Amedovski
Uros Medic def. Omar Morales
Jonathan Martinez def. Vince Morales
Chase Hooper def. Felipe Colares
Sam Hughes def. Elise Reed

2022 PDP Record: 125-70-0 (.641)